Click here , Here and Here for earlier posts on ongoing US Iran war.
For the past 2-3 days I was trying to make some sense of recent happening especially the phone call between Modi Ji and Trump and after that Modi ji in his parliament address told all to be ready for Covid like situation. Then UN diplomat Mohamad Safa resigned over UN/USA planning a nuclear strike on Iran. Trump as we know use strategic confusion as a main tool to distract his opponents and he fabricates so many narratives that one can’t be sure what he is actually planning. Just like he did it in Venezuela where they brought their navy, marine and airforce to surround Venezuela for 2 months or so and then all of a sudden, they used their special forces to kidnap their president. So I think all this nuclear is a drama created by Trump...I even think USA is not going to do any sort of ground invasion in Iran and they are saying all this just to make Iran terrified and to make them getting prepared for something USA is not going to do actually. US/Israel forces are hitting crucial targets and infra in Iran and alongside that Trump is saying that they are also doing talks…so superb psychological warfare. Iranian IRGC and government…their internal powers are also facing trust issues and are diverging over US peace proposals because many believe that even if they are being able to make USA/Israel stop the war say after 2-3 months but after that what will be left for them to save and nurture? Their industry and Infra is badly damaged and if it is destroyed further then after war there will be internal collapse because people will come on street to revolt and I don’t think even China will be able to take care of this much disintegrated Iran. So I think we are left with very few days of war.
Coming to India and Modi Ji- recently there is a huge activity happening between Indian Government and Indian defense forces…large numbers of meeting taking places, defense budget increased and procurements, army heads visiting temples etc. Pakistan has also said that Indian govt is planning some false flag operation. I think this must have been related to coming West Bengal elections. There are high chances that Pakistan is sending their terrorists for some big operation in India and this will hit BJP hard in elections. So, what Modi ji can do here- they are making Pakistan aware that we know what you are planning and we are more than ready to hit Pakistan straight after any such operation. In fact, they are trying to hit their bases in advance and that’s what terrified Pakistan. I think that’s why Trump called Modi ji for some deal. I don’t what that deal can be but something big has been discussed and planned. After that call, there is a report from USA that in case of war with Pakistan USA won’t help India although we have never expected that. So, looks like some deal has not been agreed by Modi Ji. But if not agreed then such report is not a great way to convey their displeasure that too at the scale of countries. So, we can only judge what could have been discussed and that too with Elon Musk’s disputed presence (but it is about India’s plan to hit Pakistan). But Modi government has given the warning to Pakistan- If anything happens in India we have made our mind and are ready to hit you. It is refreshing to see India not relying on reaction based Policy as this time we may see India hitting in advance.
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