US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor Update 31st March, 2026.

 Click here  , Here and Here for earlier posts on ongoing US Iran war.

For the past 2-3 days I was trying to make some sense of recent happening especially the phone call between Modi Ji and Trump and after that Modi ji in his parliament address told all to be ready for Covid like situation. Then UN diplomat Mohamad Safa resigned over UN/USA planning a nuclear strike on Iran. Trump as we know use strategic confusion as a main tool to distract his opponents and he fabricates so many narratives that one can’t be sure what he is actually planning. Just like he did it in Venezuela where they brought their navy, marine and airforce to surround Venezuela for 2 months or so and then all of a sudden, they used their special forces to kidnap their president. So I think all this nuclear is a drama created by Trump...I even think USA is not going to do any sort of ground invasion in Iran and they are saying all this just to make Iran terrified and to make them getting prepared for something USA is not going to do actually. US/Israel forces are hitting crucial targets and infra in Iran and alongside that Trump is saying that they are also doing talks…so superb psychological warfare. Iranian IRGC and government…their internal powers are also facing trust issues and are diverging over US peace proposals because many believe that even if they are being able to make USA/Israel stop the war say after 2-3 months but after that what will be left for them to save and nurture? Their industry and Infra is badly damaged and if it is destroyed further then after war there will be internal collapse because people will come on street to revolt and I don’t think even China will be able to take care of this much disintegrated Iran. So I think we are left with very few days of war.

 

Coming to India and Modi Ji- recently there is a huge activity happening between Indian Government and Indian defense forces…large numbers of meeting taking places, defense budget increased and procurements, army heads visiting temples etc. Pakistan has also said that Indian govt is planning some false flag operation. I think this must have been related to coming West Bengal elections. There are high chances that Pakistan is sending their terrorists for some big operation in India and this will hit BJP hard in elections. So, what Modi ji can do here- they are making Pakistan aware that we know what you are planning and we are more than ready to hit Pakistan straight after any such operation. In fact, they are trying to hit their bases in advance and that’s what terrified Pakistan. I think that’s why Trump called Modi ji for some deal. I don’t what that deal can be but something big has been discussed and planned. After that call, there is a report from USA that in case of war with Pakistan USA won’t help India although we have never expected that. So, looks like some deal has not been agreed by Modi Ji. But if not agreed then such report is not a great way to convey their displeasure that too at the scale of countries. So, we can only judge what could have been discussed and that too with Elon Musk’s disputed presence (but it is about India’s plan to hit Pakistan). But Modi government has given the warning to Pakistan- If anything happens in India we have made our mind and are ready to hit you. It is refreshing to see India not relying on reaction based Policy as this time we may see India hitting in advance.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

Why India deserves a higher PE ratio compared to China

Click here  and Here for earlier posts on ongoing US Iran war

Many people have asked me why I was/am against India joining the race of a new BRICS currency. Actually, first it is not going to work for structural reasons like BRICS nations still export most of their products to US and US is their biggest trading partner. Then, China is a trade surplus country so it is very difficult to make Yuan as a currency because how they will meet the currency demand as for that they need to be in trade deficit (Like USA). Third, China's strict capital controls restricts the ability of yuan as an international currency because the exchange rate against other currencies won’t be free market driven. It will be very difficult to meet demand if they are trade surplus... although not impossible. 

Still, let’s assume that these are very small problems in front of this grand ambition and so China will be able to put these asides. But here the issue is why China wants this desperately? Reason- Taiwan. China knows that the moment China tries to invade Taiwan US will put sanctions and all its trade lines will be disrupted and economy is gone. Hence, for years Chinese thinktank is planning and looking for ways to counter any such action by US and its allies. For this, the major weapon China has is to make itself deeply rooted in global trade and increase the inter-dependency of US and European firms on China. In other ways, the idea is to make China so relevant and important to the economies of these nations that any sanction on China will also hit them hard. And promoting Yuan as a currency is one such move. If China is able to establish Yuan as a second biggest global currency due to massive trades of China with other nations, then in case of sanctions all those nations will also get hit severely and in that case Dollar will also not be able to escape that carnage. 

So, the plan is simple for China. And that’s why, why should India help China in its plan when a stronger and strategically important China is going to hit and invade India after that. That’s why I always believed that Indian government was never serious on a new BRICS currency. The all such actions of India were just to make USA to realize the importance of India since USA was trying to hit India with tariffs and all sorts of nonsense (there were some other reasons for that, will try to take those some other time). So, this was a game theory ploy to make USA aware of the huge costs of agonizing India. But, USA is also smart and we can understand that they were full aware of the vulnerabilities of India as a partner in new BRICS currency. That’s why the Tariff drama went on for such a long time and we can see given the massive importance and role of USA in global trade it is very difficult for Indian govt to stood firm for such a long time. Still, India did a great job in giving firm replies to US that India should not be treated as a subordinate. Just like US knows Indian vulnerabilities against China, India also knows that US also needs India to counter China. So, it is very easy to condemn government after listening to idiotic senseless content in media but the real-life geopolitics and survival in it is not easy. But I have my full trust in Indian government.

So, we can understand why there is a rush in US and Europe to present and establish India as an alternative to China supply chain. All the bonhomie we are seeing these days between Europe and India is also related to this one reason. So Global value chains will shift to India and other nations but India should be the one with biggest stake because we also represent biggest market for all these products proposed to be made in India. That’s why I am saying all the time that the time for stunning growth phase of India is coming now. Because of this growing importance of India as a counter to dangerous China is one reason I always feel Indian market deserves way high PE ratio as compared to China and I am always surprised why some Indian fund houses and analysts are comparing India with China and even concluding that Chinese market is cheap. Well, it is not and the kind of growth and international Importance India is enjoying right now and this will keep getting bigger, only means that India deserves way high PE ratio. For example, Just see the scenario in current war. When whole world is trembling with the prospectus of huge energy infra disruptions due to this war, Iran has allowed Indian ships to cross the strait of Hormuz. India is a friend of Israel still UAE president visits India for some urgent 2 hour visit. Russia is fighting with Europe and Ukraine but Europe is entering into huge trade deals with India and countries like France are even considering India as big defense partner. But still, India is importing Russian oil and Europe has no problem with it. So, looks like India is the only one who is playing this complex geopolitics game like a master. Presently, once safest place like Dubai is getting hit with missiles but amid all this uncertainty India is the one with most balanced international foreign policy and people should be able to see what real safety is- not money or defence but geopolitical equilibrium. If we consider the authoritarian government of China (not a democracy like India) it is very risky from policy point of view. Then China does not have control over its Sea routes like India has and this aspect can hit it hard in the Indian Ocean through which it imports most of its Oil/energy needs. So, India deserves a big re-rating in its PE ratio for being so relevant, important, balanced and safer.

Why China deserves lower PE ratio as compared to India 

a) Indian economy is on natural growth path and the chances of any structural and external risks are very less. India just needs to strong on policy front (and it is good they are doing that-recent GST cuts, PLI schemes etc). Even without that we are going to grow good. Our economy is not on steroids. It is just like when a young fellow or even a person in his late 30s (35-40) decides to go to GYM for building muscles. At first, his body will give very fast results- whatever he will eat, eggs, meat etc. will be converted into muscle faster…his strength will rise fast. Even the person in his late 30s will feel the same. Because the body is in natural growth phase. Let’s assume that our Gym guy is all natural as of now (no steroids, no supplements). He will hit bench press of 120-130 Kg…all natural.

But then after a long phase of growth the body will begin to show limitations…growth will be slower…there will be injuries. All this happens because of higher base effect, over-training of the body, nutritional deficiency etc. So, the guy will start taking steroids and supplements for faster recovery and faster absorption. And he will again witness faster growth. But that will also face the limits and body may show even more serious symptoms like kidney/liver problems due to over consumption of protein supplements and steroids. Hence, the phase after natural growth is very tricky one and needs to be handled with utmost care.

b) Same is true for economies- Indian economy is seeing natural growth because of increasing income levels leading to growth in demand and supply. Govt is investing big in Infrastructure…and India still lacks big time in infrastructure. Our per capital Income is still very low…so we don’t have good muscles now. Now, take an economy which has already seen huge growth and high per capita income. The sign of hitting the wall of natural growth is the decreasing return of new investments just like our bodies. Another sign is rising bad debt which is nothing but misallocation of resources which is also natural in large growing economies. 

So, countries like China have already created the necessary infrastructure and also created huge manufacturing capabilities. But to grow further they have started taking steroids- which are creating unnecessary ghost infrastructure, huge growth in real estate making it big chunk of total GDP, more debt to induce consumption. So, their economy is now on steroids and classical symptom is existence of bubble in ASSETS (real estate and Ghost Infra in case of China).

c) Another case of steroid is higher dependence on Export; that too based on lower cost. An export-based economy is very risky because of uncertainty of external factors. You are basically giving away your critical minerals/resources/food just to collect piece of papers (Dollars) which has created a problem for you (where to invest). So, over-reliance on exports is a very risky move because every country does try to be self-reliant. Further, if you are creating exports manufacturing capacity aggressively so as to hit the employment and production capacity of other economies then it is very dangerous because they will try to block you.

So, China has created this huge manufacturing capacity, gigantic scale. But now it has become a big problem for it. It can’t be used to absorb its production locally because production is way bigger than local demand. So, you are now trapped in the hands of others. We are seeing China selling High Tech EV cars for $1000o, it is selling these at losses. 

d) So if you ask me- Chinese economy is very risky and so it deserves lower PE ratio because it needs to handle the problem of steroids and growth after natural phase; that too amid high competition from other developed countries. India can grow good with its local demand because unlike China we have good local consumption while China is trying to grow local consumption with limited success (Because of structural reasons like real estate Bubble and excess manufacturing capacity).

e) If we consider the authoritarian government of China (not a democracy like India) it is very risky from policy point of view. Then China does not have control over its Sea routes like India has and this aspect can hit it hard in the Indian Ocean through which it imports most of its Oil/energy needs.

The way India is doing trade deals with all of the major economies also reflects the growing importance and high growth potential of Indian economy. So, I am surprised when I see our great analysts/FIIs trying to compare the lower PE of China because it actually deserves lower PE now. The factors deciding the riskiness of an economy are not your routine stock marker ones but they are of much bigger macro scale and more relevant than financial ratios/metrics.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor- Update 26th Mar, 1:00 AM IST

Click for earlier update

Dear All, Everyone was claiming that the 5 day ceasefire declaration from Trump was a cry for help because Iran was hammering US/Israel in this war. But just after few hours of the declaration US/Israel has hit the gas facilities in Iran. US is building heavy military deployment in the region in the form of Airborne troops, marine units and multiple aircraft carriers and I think they are getting ready for the final heavy showdown. Iran is also hitting Gulf nations and Israel and we can understand it is with the help of Chinese Inputs but it was always expected in this war. Iran was not a kid although US and Israel have already wiped out most of their military infrastructure but still they have the capability with the backing of China.

People need to recall how US/Israel killed Khamenei on the very first day of war. This shows their precision capability to hit Iran as per their will. So it is not easy (possible) for Iran to make a heroic survival. If we can see in this war, Middle east is the one who has taken maximum blows (Israel is also hit but not that scale) and I think US wanted them to feel this heat as they were trying to be over-smart in thinking that they can put money on the table and people will die for them. Pakistan is the only one who dances for Money. Now US has made them to take assessment and act. The likes of Dubai will need to do some serious work after this war to restore the trust of the global corporate giants otherwise they are going to get hit big time.

So, Trump was never in trouble and was not crying for help and if we take note of the mysterious trading activity in Oil and S&P 500 just before the announcement it shows Trump wanted to settle the financial markets. But their ceasefire negotiations are real and they are happening but US knows that Iran won’t accept them but markets will be happy. So US is trying for ceasefire but getting ready for the big final hit. As I shared earlier, in this war stakes are very high for China and Russia. We can leave Russia at side for time being because there are high chances that Trump is trying to bring Putin in their side. But China will try hard just like US is/was doing with Ukraine. But I think China is in a very difficult position strategically- China helping Iran in hitting Gulf nations won’t be taken lightly by them and China has huge economic stakes in Middle east. As I have always said China is not a military power they are a businessman so we will see Gulf nations putting pressure on China. And US knows this thing quite well.

So we will see some serious attacks on Iran and Iran will also try to hit back. They might be having dangerous sleeper cells in US and it will activate them as we have seen in the last few days the attacks in US facilities. Iran was always going to use Strait of Hormuz as big strategy to hit back and it was well known to all in advance…it is not some sudden innovative strategy as is being posed by some analysts. US captured Venezuela before that and it can bring more oil to the market plus other supply zones across the world like Canada, Russia. It is not that there is no additional capacity to meet this short term demand. The issue was that huge noise was made about Iran winning and possibility of a long war. Long war means big spike in oil prices and this was what Iran (read China...there are high chances of other vested interests trying to profit from oil spike...you people can guess them) wanted with all misinformation. They know if they are able to take oil price to $150-200 then the global pressure will be too much for US to continue this war. But I think with 5 day ceasefire plus mediation offer Trump has calmed it down and things are looking in control for the time being. And I think if this was the real plan then it is a good job done.

Will share more.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor

Dear All, I have received many requests to share my views on the current war situation. These days I am sharing regular notes on War with my clients so I am sharing the same here. As I don’t have the time to edit so I am pasting these notes in time-stamped mode- I will share the Notes along with the time details (Time/date when I shared those with my clients, most recent post first). I will try to post more relevant older posts in the future.

 

24^th Mar, 11:30 PM IST

Dear All, now, I am guessing what Modi Ji has talked with trump. I think it should be about buying more oil from Russia. Middle east and Iran are trying to charge huge premium from India but here I think India should use the sheer power of our consumption/demand of oil. We need to threaten them that if India is forced to re-route its oil requirement from elsewhere then the same won’t return back to these countries. And I hope our diplomats like Jaishankar ji are very smart guys and they should be doing all this. 

India suffered big from US sanctions due to Russia oil but India did not leave Russia; now is the time for Russia to come and help India and that’s why I shared earlier that now is the time to see how Russia is behaving in offering crude at normal or way high prices. Recently, India bought some 30 million barrels of crude which was roughly all the available Russian crude in Asian waters.

Unlike Ukraine war, where oil supply was hit due to sanctions but there was no physical blockage/shortage so at that time re-routing of oil helped in keeping the prices low. Now it is different with supply chain blocked and physical infra destroyed which means it will take some time but it will come back. Iran is selling oil to China through same Hormuz and Saudis are using red sea route so that has taken care of some of the turmoil.

And if we go by the oil prices in Futures market then it seems they are pricing the moderate chances of opening of Hormuz or other resolutions. There are always insiders everywhere and they are the reasons people make life time fortunes in stocks and commodities. Last day also, there was a mysterious big spike in volumes in oil futures and S&P 500 just 15 minutes before Trump announcement. So, this is no coincidence and we can have a clue from oil prices. Today I was expecting a big jump in Crude but it was settled at 4%. 

Then, India is buying Venezuela oil now and even today India has bought major chunk from them. I don’t know why there is no talk about it yet- how much is coming and at what cost. India is one of the few globally to have the refineries to process their heavy crude. 

I am also assessing the situation in case the war ends with lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and that oil comes to the market. If we can see US will be in a critical situation in controlling the oil supply globally and you people can easily understand that that oil will be priced in BRICS’ favourite Petrodollar!!! And with it, you all can understand the real US game in saving dollar and their economy and their global power. So Dollar is the asset to buy now and that’s why I am sharing all the time that now is not the time for Gold. And we can see also why India may fit big time into US oil schema as we are the biggest customer.

Hopefully, things are looking under control. I am guessing a lot of secret deals.

(Good news is that the countries across the globe has now realised their mistake and all have come together to arrange one NOBEL for Trump. Another secret deal doing the rounds is that since Pakistan is mediating so Trump will nominate Asif Munir for Nobel and later on Munir will hand over the same to Trump saying it was Trump's Idea. I think these are much better plans.)

24^th Mar, 09:00 PM IST

Dear All Today Modi ji addressed and going by his speech I think we will see some action on oil prices soon...tmrw may be. Market may be quite volatile although i think all this has already been priced in.

If we can see the oil scenario now, the likes of Canada, Russia are the biggest winner. US is also not losing anything. Israel and Gulf nations have bigger stakes in Iran regime change, they will get huge benefits. But even bigger casualty is BRICS and their currency plans which was pure nonsense…as i am sharing from time to time...this Gold buying spree was sort of nonsense. How can India china with so much enmity and mistrust can be partners in new currency...that too primarily linked with Yuan.

I always felt that if India was really getting involved in any such new BRICS currency plans that would be a mistake. If we can see, all this action by Trump is to show BRICS its real place...a block of mostly pariah states. How can these pariah states can be trusted like Dollar? So i have no doubt that Trump wanted to hit BRICS badly...BRICS even included IRAN last year. I am sure message was given to Modi Ji before war and Russia is now trying to make India think. What all this BRICS bonhomie has really produced- Dollar rising big time again. They wanted to hit dollar but Trump has hit their economies hard. If this war goes longer and Oil prices stay high then our GDP growth is hit and looks like market will get this msg tmrw.

Gold looks like getting ready for a big hit...i have warned many times earlier that at these prices Gold is more like a risky stock. But i want to really see now how Russia will be coming to help India by not charging big for oil. Elections are coming this year and any spike in inflation means BJP will be gone. The anti BJP elements will try to spread as much misinformation as possible and we can see external factors getting involved  to destabilise India. So tough time for Modi ji but i think they will be able to find a solution. First, this is not their fault as the likes of Israel and GCC always wanted to hit Iran; although for different reasons. India has really done good work in the middle east under Modi government and I think UAE is one such relationship which will endure and stick for a long time. Saudis has already picked Pakistan. 

Now is the time for those so-called great Indian analysts who were/are cheering Iran win to see the impact of Iran’s actions on Hormuz. Only a fool can justify those actions especially when those are going to hit India hard. But amid all this, the attempts to end this war are going on. Pakistan is in difficult state so they are trying to mediate to stop this war because very soon we will see UAE/Saudis going to war with Iran and Pakistan has treaty with Saudis. US has also taken Pakistan name as a nuclear threat which is a message to them to either join the war or face consequences. Modi ji have talked to both Iran PM and Trump today. So I think message to Iran will be clear- either agree or face entire middle east and may be Europe and I think the same message was given to Putin yesterday and Putin for the sake of Ukraine may be trying to get Iran into agreement. So still quite a number of options and hopefully we will see something good.

One thing which i am sharing from time to time is that global markets are not worried abt this war and how much time it would take. Just see Ukraine war- after initial reaction markets never bothered abt them and they are like doing their war at some other planet. so just like Ukraine war, the issue now is oil prices. If they are able to find a solution for that then everything will be normal. That's why Trump has sort of given the task to end this war on countries feeling the heat of this oil choke- GCC, Pakistan, Europe and even India. Iran wanted to use this oil choke as startegic advantage (which is well known to all in advance) and now trump is trying to to reverse that by making other countries to challenge Iran.

24^th Mar, 05:00 PM IST

Dear All, one thing which I forgot to address is the last day call between Trump and Putin. Right now, a large number of different combinations are being tried. It is for sure that US wanted Russia to do something in this war for them in exchange for something in Ukraine. It is for sure that US under trump is trying to take Russia in their side- but these attempts are never absolute and they are always ready for a parallel opposite arrangement also. 

 

Many people believe that this war is good for Russia from a strategic point of view because now west will be trapped in this war for a long time and Russia will be able to handle Ukraine well. But I don’t think so- This war is beneficial for Russia economically…there is no doubt that Russia will make billions from oil. But strategically this can be very dangerous- because in case US is able to hit iran and bring regime change or make it weaken and unstable then this will be a huge loss for Russia. Iran is a big partner for Russia in countering the western/American hold on global power. These anti west nations are called CRINK-China, Iran, Russia and our beloved KIM Bhaiya (North Korea). So this war is not with some 3^rd party but an ally of Russia. Together these countries were able to bypass all western sanctions and everything else. So I don’t think Russia is that happy at this war. USA is looking like starting its long-term strategy to enforce their power and control globally which is not good for Russia at this point. Cuba is already the next target- another China asset which will be taken away from them by USA.

 

So, I think Russia will be more interested in the closure of this war at this stage. Russia may be ready for Iran to get something give something. But I am not sure what was the msg to Trump from Putin but I think both will try to negotiate. If I am Russia then I know my bigger focus and interest is Ukraine war and if US is ready to give me something for that then I should try to end this war by giving something to USA.

 

We are seeing India Russia having more talks and they are all about oil. US tried to get India to their terms by buying lesser oil from Russia off late but now the situation is that India is trapped now and Russia also stopped discount on Oil. So, we may see discount coming back and something bigger. 

 

Modi ji went to Israel just 2 days before the war so there is no doubt that he was told about the war. These things are never shared over phone. So, something is happening behind the scene where India is having a bigger role. Before that visit, UAE president visited India for 2 hours in jan-2026. All these are not coincidences and routine matters. India was/is never an important player in global geopolitics as our stake was/is mainly about Pakistan. But this government has started taking some decisive actions and even started picking sides. 

 

Will share more.

 

24^th Mar, 01:30 PM IST

 

Dear All, the phase of uncertainty for MARKET is going on…and also for our great analysts who really think that in geopolitics surficial data is the reality. For them, Trump has made unilateral ceasefire out of fear. But when powerful people want to retreat then they don’t do the same in a way market thinks Trump is doing. If Trump is really fearing of Iranian might and wants a backdoor retreat then he will simply close the war saying we have achieved our objectives of hitting their military infrastructure. 

 

Right now, there are talks going on for real. And I have also shared earlier that there is a high possibility of some secret talks with alternate people…people of choice for US even in IRGC. GCC nations like Saudi and UAE are the ones trying hard for this deal otherwise they will join the war…they must have given this message to Iran. If deal fails then they will join the war. Trump has given them 5 days to make a deal. People may not like him (I am also against him if he is working against India) and one reason people are spreading useless news that he is losing the war etc.

 

Many people are sharing large number of news/videos about experts saying Trump is losing this war and Iran has surprised. So we are being told that Iran is winning and will take call from point of strength. This is the biggest joke I have heard of late. We are being shown Iran missiles/Drones hitting Middle east/Israel (mostly on uncertain targets) and people just clap. No videos are there from Iran because internet is blocked and our great analysts believe that nothing is hitting Iran!!

 

Iran was always supposed to withstand this war for 30-40 even 50-60 days because they have the army/weapons and money plus they don’t care much about its people getting killed. So, these same people who are declaring Iran winning just because it has survived 20 days have also declared Russia a winner against Ukraine even when Ukraine has endured the war for 5 years now!!! They shout big that Russia has killed the west; what a man and revolution. But I am always worried about the equation taking place for Russia who might have become weak and stretched…and USA may use this opportunity. Indian people need to understand that against China Russia may not help India. 

 

Israel has always helped India even when India didn’t recognize it. Israel went against its friend USA and supported India in all wars against Pakistan when USA was against India. Under Modi this relation with Israel has only strengthened with India buying and selling weapons to Israel being used in Hamas war. Indian stakes are way high in GCC nations where we have entered huge trade deals and millions of people working there. So, we can see easily Indian govt has chosen the side of US/Israel and is now criticizing Iran openly for Hormuz blockade. But it is shocking these stupid Indian analysts supporting a terrorist nation like Iran. India has to take similar actions against Pakistan…we have taken already most recently in operation Sindoor.

 

Khamenei was supported by CIA for coming into power in Iran but later on he turned out to be a Shia islamist hardliner and he even went against US interests in Oil. And US followed with sanctions. So, all this mess was created by all of them…not because of some general good but only for bloody power where they just killed people in Iran every year. US helped Khamenei so they had the right to demand obligations, Khamenei promised and then backstabbed. So, If we really want to be objective here then just see what most Iranian want and they all want the end of Regime.

 

So, no Iran is winning this war- because this is not a drama movie. And hence no catastrophe will happen…these are just short time disturbance. Further, there are people in Iran who understands that best way to win this war is to agree to US demands and survive their regime. I think Trump must have given Israel and its army the timeline for ending war by which they need to hit Iran hard…and after that Trump will close the war. If regime survives still the objective is achieved- A weak, unstable and poor Islamic regime…and US/Israel will continue to act against them and will come again. But most probably we will see something big happening soon. 

 

23^rd Mar, 04:30 PM IST

 

Dear All, today markets have fallen due to the threat of Iran to hit oil fields across the middle east if US attacks their energy sources because trump has given 48 hours ultimatum. Now again people across the world (include great Indian journalists) are ridiculing Trump because Iran has issued counter warning and people are saying Iran is treating US/Trump as shit. But this happen when so called greatest geopoliticians don’t understand the real war games…when they think that a US president can really be that fool. People think that US is losing war and Iran is hitting them like anything…but still Trump has the power to issue a warning? Whether entire US army is that foolish…they are losing a war and instead of finding a way to de-escalate and looking for a way out they are issuing warnings?

 

Why Trump is issuing this ultimatum- US is not dependent on Oil imports, infact they are the biggest exporter right now. But Trump knows that China, Europe needed all this oil from middle east. So if US hits Iran Oil and then Iran hits Gulf oil reserves who will be the biggest loser? It is not US but China, Europe and middle east nations. So, Trump has increased their stakes significantly…he is giving them a message- either join him in this decisive war at the front or pay the price. But he is not ready to let people have free lunch.  China will be devastated…and I think their tone has mellowed now. They are not talking abt Taiwan attack. 

 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte defended Trump's military action in Iran and even praised his leadership. Few days back these people were criticizing Trump and were not ready to join him. Last day Iran showed it has long range ballistic missiles by attacking Diego Garcia which is some 4000 km away. It means Europe is in the firing line of Iran.

 

Similarly, gulf guys were not ready to attack Iran but now with this threat from trump they are not left with any choice. They need to take a call now.

 

Given a chance, india would have tried to not let Pakistan having Nuclear weapons. Similarly, I don’t think nuclear in the hands of unstable and radical nations like Iran is good. Iran earlier said that they don’t have long range missiles but last year in Oct-25 they said they were renouncing their commitments to that and now all of a sudden in few months they have long range missiles. All this mess in Iran is the result of so much of radical nonsense in the past where even US/UK also played their part in so many coups. So this is their mess and they are dealing with it…We Indians have no locus standi to take a stand against US. If trump can really end Iran and its proxies then the world may be a better place…at least for now.

 

Now what- in my view Trump has these things in Mind behind his 48 hour ultimatum. He wants to end free lunch to all these parties. So, I think we will see some decisive moves now…in these 24 hours. The collective response from all these actors will be too much for Iran to deal with. We can understand that a lot of deals are being tried behind the scenes. With this one Move, trump has made all to run and take a firm stand. So I think finally we are nearing something big and decisive. Let’s see if I am right in my prediction.

 

I am trying to assess the situation and will be sharing…next 24 hours make or break. And my bet is on Make.

 

20^th March, 01:00 PM IST

 

Dear All, as i am sharing from time to time, I have no doubt that US plan is to hit China out of the middle east. Israel is more focused on regime change in Iran. So I don’t think they are out of the track...Iran always have the capability to hit back but that capability is more about choking oil....the other damage caused by Iran is not that big. China will try hard to counter US/Israel so we will see some more fireworks. US wants the control of Iranian oil so US won’t allow oil to be hit...or US might allow Israel to hit oil in Iran so that Iran hit the oil fields of Gulf nations and then they won’t have any choice but to enter war with US.

 

So it is a chess board game and US will try many such moves...I think Trump knows very well what he is doing. As i am sharing from time to time, this is not about who is good and who is bad...ethics or larger good is never the reason or viewpoint to see a war. You ask Iranian people and most are against the current regime and if we are based on that then US/Israel are doing good. But they are not doing that for Iranian people so the focus is something else. US is not our friend but China is our biggest enemy so a weakened China is great news for India. I dont believe a strong Iran with current regime is good for India...very dangerous. China at the point of strength will deal tough with India.

 

You know who is the biggest winner of this war- not gold or silver but DOLLAR. Gold/silver are falling which is quite the opposite most people were thinking. This is how the world of investment behaves. There are also chances that investors are selling gold to buy cheaper equities. But demand for dollar as safer asset is rising big. Rising gas price means US gas companies will mint huge money. I have shared about the risks of Gold and BRICS trying some adventures in dec. 

 

Some people are still shouting of a world war coming but it is not happening. just look at the globe...there are no definite sides/group...two groups having aligned objectives/targets to fight with the other group. No such two groups exist right now...so no world war. China will try to show some drama around Taiwan...but unfortunately US knows that china can't attack it...North Korea will do some dancing but deep down even they know that a free US (from middle east) will eye uniting North and South korea.

 

 

6th March (Motive behind this war): 

 

Dear All, there are many media reports especially from Indian analysts narrating that this US Iran war is not good for India and India will be in a very dangerous position. The crux of their analysis is that a weakened and disintegrated Iran will rely more on China and even Pakistan and that will hit India hard. Many analysts I know have also shared the same view along with oil supply issues and they are predicting Indian market falling more because of this. But I really hope that our market may be able to understand the reality and ignore this view. Let me share.

 

a) Current situation- First, let’s try to see what is the situation before this war. Last year US and Israel hit and destroyed most of the Iran’s nuclear sites plus their drone manufacturing units along with many of the top commanders from IRGC. So, they have already eliminated their main worry. So, the question is what is left for them to be so eager for a strike now? One thing we know- It is not Nuclear. 

 

b) Objective behind war- If US Israel are taking this much risk in attacking Iran then there must be some bigger purpose. Iran is not a torn, destabilized and disoriented country, they have very credible army and sophisticated military equipment capable of inflicting significant damage. Plus Iran has very dangerous proxy network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen which enables it to open multi front war encircling Israel and Middle east countries. So, we know that in case of a war Iran will hit you hard. But then why US and Israel and their GCC allies are taking so much pain for this war?

 

If we read these analysts, they are of the view that US/Israel want to hit Iran hard, they wanted to eliminate Khamenei and IRGC top tier and also to inflict big damage to Islamic regime. But what US will get out of this show of power by spending huge resources and taking risks and also seeing the destruction in their own backyard? Why US/Israel will just be happy in seeing some fireworks in Iran and then they will pack their bags? Why US/Israel will leave Iran further weakened and destabilized when they know this will only enable China Russia to make more inroads into Iran and become more critical for its existence and survival? Do you think US/Israel are that fool to not visualize and envisage this? 

 

c) as I am sharing from time to time- this war and most of other wars have no motive for larger good. It is all about protecting your interest or limiting your enemy/competitor. So we need to understand this war from the point of view of US/Israel considering them as rational strategic players not some dramatic fools. Trump is a risk taking guy; the one with very deep understanding of Game theory. He knows how to act, portray, pose and behave to make people uneasy and forcing them to be in their safety. He poses like a Mad man but that’s only to make people ready to renounce and negotiate. As he is pushing India quite a bit so he is not our friend but he deserves some credit for trying to take US forward.

But forward against what and where?

 

d) If we see Iran- it is a proxy of China (or an asset of China). An Asset because China has invested quite a bit of effort and resources in it. China buys around 90% of Iran Oil at big discounts (secretly from the eyes of US) and then Iran buys all and everything from China- tech and equipment. Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are the ones behind most of Iran’s telecommunications infrastructure. Then China has provided Iran’s camera network (AI enabled), then its Internet is based on Chinese tech. So we can understand with these tech infra China really controls the tech part of Iran.

So Iran means China. 

 

e) Now then, what is Iran for others in the GCC- It is a headache because it behaves like a mafia don. It has terrorist proxies Hizballah, Hamas, Houtis. It is a nuisance for them and China provides them the leverage to control Iran. So GCC countries feel grateful to China to control Iran and they are happily giving huge contracts to China and China has been able to penetrate big in GCC countries and building their ports, railways, 5G networks. And Voila! China has become indispensable for them and dominate player in middle east which is the global energy source.

 

So what is Iran for China- it is an asset not an ally like US has Japan or South Korea. Many people are shouting that why China is not helping Iran. Because it is not an ally of China; it is an asset and an asset is always used for strategy. China will never take the risk of fighting with US for Iran or Venezuela.

 

f) US knows all this- that China is happy to see US consuming time and resources to contain all the mess created by Iran. Here, I am not talking about Iran being good to India or our friend. Iran has always supported Pakistan in case of Kashmir. Above all this it is an asset of China. It is CHINA. US understands pretty well that a weakened and unstable Iran will be more dangerous for its foreign policy because it will give more control of China over it. 

 

g) Russia- Russia got drones from Iran against Ukraine war when it was facing tough times from Turkish Drones. But it paid Iran for that- it was a trade. Iran needed those dollars…billions may be. Then Russia has a pact with Israel for no-attack. Further, trump is supporting the cause of Russia in Ukraine war. Trump is helping Russia by enforcing their terms for negotiations. So Russia will stay out of this war. Russia needs global recognition and wants to be accepted in the global circles as a responsible and great power which Trump is ready to give them.

 

h) It is all about China- So we can understand that US knows who is the major beneficiary of a weakened Iran upto now and in the future also. So in my view, both Israel and US won’t leave the task midway this time. Israel has weakened the proxies of Iran (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) in the last 2 years or so. Hence they know that they have the best time to eliminate Islamic rule in Iran. So in my view, we will see US/Israel not stopping before regime change or something similar. And I think there must be some sort of secret deal placed somewhere.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).