Dear All, Everyone was claiming that the 5 day ceasefire declaration from Trump was a cry for help because Iran was hammering US/Israel in this war. But just after few hours of the declaration US/Israel has hit the gas facilities in Iran. US is building heavy military deployment in the region in the form of Airborne troops, marine units and multiple aircraft carriers and I think they are getting ready for the final heavy showdown. Iran is also hitting Gulf nations and Israel and we can understand it is with the help of Chinese Inputs but it was always expected in this war. Iran was not a kid although US and Israel have already wiped out most of their military infrastructure but still they have the capability with the backing of China.
People need to recall how US/Israel killed Khamenei on the very first day of war. This shows their precision capability to hit Iran as per their will. So it is not easy (possible) for Iran to make a heroic survival. If we can see in this war, Middle east is the one who has taken maximum blows (Israel is also hit but not that scale) and I think US wanted them to feel this heat as they were trying to be over-smart in thinking that they can put money on the table and people will die for them. Pakistan is the only one who dances for Money. Now US has made them to take assessment and act. The likes of Dubai will need to do some serious work after this war to restore the trust of the global corporate giants otherwise they are going to get hit big time.
So, Trump was never in trouble and was not crying for help and if we take note of the mysterious trading activity in Oil and S&P 500 just before the announcement it shows Trump wanted to settle the financial markets. But their ceasefire negotiations are real and they are happening but US knows that Iran won’t accept them but markets will be happy. So US is trying for ceasefire but getting ready for the big final hit. As I shared earlier, in this war stakes are very high for China and Russia. We can leave Russia at side for time being because there are high chances that Trump is trying to bring Putin in their side. But China will try hard just like US is/was doing with Ukraine. But I think China is in a very difficult position strategically- China helping Iran in hitting Gulf nations won’t be taken lightly by them and China has huge economic stakes in Middle east. As I have always said China is not a military power they are a businessman so we will see Gulf nations putting pressure on China. And US knows this thing quite well.
So we will see some serious attacks on Iran and Iran will also try to hit back. They might be having dangerous sleeper cells in US and it will activate them as we have seen in the last few days the attacks in US facilities. Iran was always going to use Strait of Hormuz as big strategy to hit back and it was well known to all in advance…it is not some sudden innovative strategy as is being posed by some analysts. US captured Venezuela before that and it can bring more oil to the market plus other supply zones across the world like Canada, Russia. It is not that there is no additional capacity to meet this short term demand. The issue was that huge noise was made about Iran winning and possibility of a long war. Long war means big spike in oil prices and this was what Iran (read China...there are high chances of other vested interests trying to profit from oil spike...you people can guess them) wanted with all misinformation. They know if they are able to take oil price to $150-200 then the global pressure will be too much for US to continue this war. But I think with 5 day ceasefire plus mediation offer Trump has calmed it down and things are looking in control for the time being. And I think if this was the real plan then it is a good job done.
Will share more.
(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).
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