US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor Update 31st March, 2026.

 Click here  , Here and Here for earlier posts on ongoing US Iran war.

For the past 2-3 days I was trying to make some sense of recent happening especially the phone call between Modi Ji and Trump and after that Modi ji in his parliament address told all to be ready for Covid like situation. Then UN diplomat Mohamad Safa resigned over UN/USA planning a nuclear strike on Iran. Trump as we know use strategic confusion as a main tool to distract his opponents and he fabricates so many narratives that one can’t be sure what he is actually planning. Just like he did it in Venezuela where they brought their navy, marine and airforce to surround Venezuela for 2 months or so and then all of a sudden, they used their special forces to kidnap their president. So I think all this nuclear is a drama created by Trump...I even think USA is not going to do any sort of ground invasion in Iran and they are saying all this just to make Iran terrified and to make them getting prepared for something USA is not going to do actually. US/Israel forces are hitting crucial targets and infra in Iran and alongside that Trump is saying that they are also doing talks…so superb psychological warfare. Iranian IRGC and government…their internal powers are also facing trust issues and are diverging over US peace proposals because many believe that even if they are being able to make USA/Israel stop the war say after 2-3 months but after that what will be left for them to save and nurture? Their industry and Infra is badly damaged and if it is destroyed further then after war there will be internal collapse because people will come on street to revolt and I don’t think even China will be able to take care of this much disintegrated Iran. So I think we are left with very few days of war.

 

Coming to India and Modi Ji- recently there is a huge activity happening between Indian Government and Indian defense forces…large numbers of meeting taking places, defense budget increased and procurements, army heads visiting temples etc. Pakistan has also said that Indian govt is planning some false flag operation. I think this must have been related to coming West Bengal elections. There are high chances that Pakistan is sending their terrorists for some big operation in India and this will hit BJP hard in elections. So, what Modi ji can do here- they are making Pakistan aware that we know what you are planning and we are more than ready to hit Pakistan straight after any such operation. In fact, they are trying to hit their bases in advance and that’s what terrified Pakistan. I think that’s why Trump called Modi ji for some deal. I don’t what that deal can be but something big has been discussed and planned. After that call, there is a report from USA that in case of war with Pakistan USA won’t help India although we have never expected that. So, looks like some deal has not been agreed by Modi Ji. But if not agreed then such report is not a great way to convey their displeasure that too at the scale of countries. So, we can only judge what could have been discussed and that too with Elon Musk’s disputed presence (but it is about India’s plan to hit Pakistan). But Modi government has given the warning to Pakistan- If anything happens in India we have made our mind and are ready to hit you. It is refreshing to see India not relying on reaction based Policy as this time we may see India hitting in advance.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

Why India deserves a higher PE ratio compared to China

Click here  and Here for earlier posts on ongoing US Iran war

Many people have asked me why I was/am against India joining the race of a new BRICS currency. Actually, first it is not going to work for structural reasons like BRICS nations still export most of their products to US and US is their biggest trading partner. Then, China is a trade surplus country so it is very difficult to make Yuan as a currency because how they will meet the currency demand as for that they need to be in trade deficit (Like USA). Third, China's strict capital controls restricts the ability of yuan as an international currency because the exchange rate against other currencies won’t be free market driven. It will be very difficult to meet demand if they are trade surplus... although not impossible. 

Still, let’s assume that these are very small problems in front of this grand ambition and so China will be able to put these asides. But here the issue is why China wants this desperately? Reason- Taiwan. China knows that the moment China tries to invade Taiwan US will put sanctions and all its trade lines will be disrupted and economy is gone. Hence, for years Chinese thinktank is planning and looking for ways to counter any such action by US and its allies. For this, the major weapon China has is to make itself deeply rooted in global trade and increase the inter-dependency of US and European firms on China. In other ways, the idea is to make China so relevant and important to the economies of these nations that any sanction on China will also hit them hard. And promoting Yuan as a currency is one such move. If China is able to establish Yuan as a second biggest global currency due to massive trades of China with other nations, then in case of sanctions all those nations will also get hit severely and in that case Dollar will also not be able to escape that carnage. 

So, the plan is simple for China. And that’s why, why should India help China in its plan when a stronger and strategically important China is going to hit and invade India after that. That’s why I always believed that Indian government was never serious on a new BRICS currency. The all such actions of India were just to make USA to realize the importance of India since USA was trying to hit India with tariffs and all sorts of nonsense (there were some other reasons for that, will try to take those some other time). So, this was a game theory ploy to make USA aware of the huge costs of agonizing India. But, USA is also smart and we can understand that they were full aware of the vulnerabilities of India as a partner in new BRICS currency. That’s why the Tariff drama went on for such a long time and we can see given the massive importance and role of USA in global trade it is very difficult for Indian govt to stood firm for such a long time. Still, India did a great job in giving firm replies to US that India should not be treated as a subordinate. Just like US knows Indian vulnerabilities against China, India also knows that US also needs India to counter China. So, it is very easy to condemn government after listening to idiotic senseless content in media but the real-life geopolitics and survival in it is not easy. But I have my full trust in Indian government.

So, we can understand why there is a rush in US and Europe to present and establish India as an alternative to China supply chain. All the bonhomie we are seeing these days between Europe and India is also related to this one reason. So Global value chains will shift to India and other nations but India should be the one with biggest stake because we also represent biggest market for all these products proposed to be made in India. That’s why I am saying all the time that the time for stunning growth phase of India is coming now. Because of this growing importance of India as a counter to dangerous China is one reason I always feel Indian market deserves way high PE ratio as compared to China and I am always surprised why some Indian fund houses and analysts are comparing India with China and even concluding that Chinese market is cheap. Well, it is not and the kind of growth and international Importance India is enjoying right now and this will keep getting bigger, only means that India deserves way high PE ratio. For example, Just see the scenario in current war. When whole world is trembling with the prospectus of huge energy infra disruptions due to this war, Iran has allowed Indian ships to cross the strait of Hormuz. India is a friend of Israel still UAE president visits India for some urgent 2 hour visit. Russia is fighting with Europe and Ukraine but Europe is entering into huge trade deals with India and countries like France are even considering India as big defense partner. But still, India is importing Russian oil and Europe has no problem with it. So, looks like India is the only one who is playing this complex geopolitics game like a master. Presently, once safest place like Dubai is getting hit with missiles but amid all this uncertainty India is the one with most balanced international foreign policy and people should be able to see what real safety is- not money or defence but geopolitical equilibrium. If we consider the authoritarian government of China (not a democracy like India) it is very risky from policy point of view. Then China does not have control over its Sea routes like India has and this aspect can hit it hard in the Indian Ocean through which it imports most of its Oil/energy needs. So, India deserves a big re-rating in its PE ratio for being so relevant, important, balanced and safer.

Why China deserves lower PE ratio as compared to India 

a) Indian economy is on natural growth path and the chances of any structural and external risks are very less. India just needs to strong on policy front (and it is good they are doing that-recent GST cuts, PLI schemes etc). Even without that we are going to grow good. Our economy is not on steroids. It is just like when a young fellow or even a person in his late 30s (35-40) decides to go to GYM for building muscles. At first, his body will give very fast results- whatever he will eat, eggs, meat etc. will be converted into muscle faster…his strength will rise fast. Even the person in his late 30s will feel the same. Because the body is in natural growth phase. Let’s assume that our Gym guy is all natural as of now (no steroids, no supplements). He will hit bench press of 120-130 Kg…all natural.

But then after a long phase of growth the body will begin to show limitations…growth will be slower…there will be injuries. All this happens because of higher base effect, over-training of the body, nutritional deficiency etc. So, the guy will start taking steroids and supplements for faster recovery and faster absorption. And he will again witness faster growth. But that will also face the limits and body may show even more serious symptoms like kidney/liver problems due to over consumption of protein supplements and steroids. Hence, the phase after natural growth is very tricky one and needs to be handled with utmost care.

b) Same is true for economies- Indian economy is seeing natural growth because of increasing income levels leading to growth in demand and supply. Govt is investing big in Infrastructure…and India still lacks big time in infrastructure. Our per capital Income is still very low…so we don’t have good muscles now. Now, take an economy which has already seen huge growth and high per capita income. The sign of hitting the wall of natural growth is the decreasing return of new investments just like our bodies. Another sign is rising bad debt which is nothing but misallocation of resources which is also natural in large growing economies. 

So, countries like China have already created the necessary infrastructure and also created huge manufacturing capabilities. But to grow further they have started taking steroids- which are creating unnecessary ghost infrastructure, huge growth in real estate making it big chunk of total GDP, more debt to induce consumption. So, their economy is now on steroids and classical symptom is existence of bubble in ASSETS (real estate and Ghost Infra in case of China).

c) Another case of steroid is higher dependence on Export; that too based on lower cost. An export-based economy is very risky because of uncertainty of external factors. You are basically giving away your critical minerals/resources/food just to collect piece of papers (Dollars) which has created a problem for you (where to invest). So, over-reliance on exports is a very risky move because every country does try to be self-reliant. Further, if you are creating exports manufacturing capacity aggressively so as to hit the employment and production capacity of other economies then it is very dangerous because they will try to block you.

So, China has created this huge manufacturing capacity, gigantic scale. But now it has become a big problem for it. It can’t be used to absorb its production locally because production is way bigger than local demand. So, you are now trapped in the hands of others. We are seeing China selling High Tech EV cars for $1000o, it is selling these at losses. 

d) So if you ask me- Chinese economy is very risky and so it deserves lower PE ratio because it needs to handle the problem of steroids and growth after natural phase; that too amid high competition from other developed countries. India can grow good with its local demand because unlike China we have good local consumption while China is trying to grow local consumption with limited success (Because of structural reasons like real estate Bubble and excess manufacturing capacity).

e) If we consider the authoritarian government of China (not a democracy like India) it is very risky from policy point of view. Then China does not have control over its Sea routes like India has and this aspect can hit it hard in the Indian Ocean through which it imports most of its Oil/energy needs.

The way India is doing trade deals with all of the major economies also reflects the growing importance and high growth potential of Indian economy. So, I am surprised when I see our great analysts/FIIs trying to compare the lower PE of China because it actually deserves lower PE now. The factors deciding the riskiness of an economy are not your routine stock marker ones but they are of much bigger macro scale and more relevant than financial ratios/metrics.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor- Update 26th Mar, 1:00 AM IST

Click for earlier update

Dear All, Everyone was claiming that the 5 day ceasefire declaration from Trump was a cry for help because Iran was hammering US/Israel in this war. But just after few hours of the declaration US/Israel has hit the gas facilities in Iran. US is building heavy military deployment in the region in the form of Airborne troops, marine units and multiple aircraft carriers and I think they are getting ready for the final heavy showdown. Iran is also hitting Gulf nations and Israel and we can understand it is with the help of Chinese Inputs but it was always expected in this war. Iran was not a kid although US and Israel have already wiped out most of their military infrastructure but still they have the capability with the backing of China.

People need to recall how US/Israel killed Khamenei on the very first day of war. This shows their precision capability to hit Iran as per their will. So it is not easy (possible) for Iran to make a heroic survival. If we can see in this war, Middle east is the one who has taken maximum blows (Israel is also hit but not that scale) and I think US wanted them to feel this heat as they were trying to be over-smart in thinking that they can put money on the table and people will die for them. Pakistan is the only one who dances for Money. Now US has made them to take assessment and act. The likes of Dubai will need to do some serious work after this war to restore the trust of the global corporate giants otherwise they are going to get hit big time.

So, Trump was never in trouble and was not crying for help and if we take note of the mysterious trading activity in Oil and S&P 500 just before the announcement it shows Trump wanted to settle the financial markets. But their ceasefire negotiations are real and they are happening but US knows that Iran won’t accept them but markets will be happy. So US is trying for ceasefire but getting ready for the big final hit. As I shared earlier, in this war stakes are very high for China and Russia. We can leave Russia at side for time being because there are high chances that Trump is trying to bring Putin in their side. But China will try hard just like US is/was doing with Ukraine. But I think China is in a very difficult position strategically- China helping Iran in hitting Gulf nations won’t be taken lightly by them and China has huge economic stakes in Middle east. As I have always said China is not a military power they are a businessman so we will see Gulf nations putting pressure on China. And US knows this thing quite well.

So we will see some serious attacks on Iran and Iran will also try to hit back. They might be having dangerous sleeper cells in US and it will activate them as we have seen in the last few days the attacks in US facilities. Iran was always going to use Strait of Hormuz as big strategy to hit back and it was well known to all in advance…it is not some sudden innovative strategy as is being posed by some analysts. US captured Venezuela before that and it can bring more oil to the market plus other supply zones across the world like Canada, Russia. It is not that there is no additional capacity to meet this short term demand. The issue was that huge noise was made about Iran winning and possibility of a long war. Long war means big spike in oil prices and this was what Iran (read China...there are high chances of other vested interests trying to profit from oil spike...you people can guess them) wanted with all misinformation. They know if they are able to take oil price to $150-200 then the global pressure will be too much for US to continue this war. But I think with 5 day ceasefire plus mediation offer Trump has calmed it down and things are looking in control for the time being. And I think if this was the real plan then it is a good job done.

Will share more.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

US/Israel war with Iran- Geopolitics is the supreme Valuation factor

Dear All, I have received many requests to share my views on the current war situation. These days I am sharing regular notes on War with my clients so I am sharing the same here. As I don’t have the time to edit so I am pasting these notes in time-stamped mode- I will share the Notes along with the time details (Time/date when I shared those with my clients, most recent post first). I will try to post more relevant older posts in the future.

 

24^th Mar, 11:30 PM IST

Dear All, now, I am guessing what Modi Ji has talked with trump. I think it should be about buying more oil from Russia. Middle east and Iran are trying to charge huge premium from India but here I think India should use the sheer power of our consumption/demand of oil. We need to threaten them that if India is forced to re-route its oil requirement from elsewhere then the same won’t return back to these countries. And I hope our diplomats like Jaishankar ji are very smart guys and they should be doing all this. 

India suffered big from US sanctions due to Russia oil but India did not leave Russia; now is the time for Russia to come and help India and that’s why I shared earlier that now is the time to see how Russia is behaving in offering crude at normal or way high prices. Recently, India bought some 30 million barrels of crude which was roughly all the available Russian crude in Asian waters.

Unlike Ukraine war, where oil supply was hit due to sanctions but there was no physical blockage/shortage so at that time re-routing of oil helped in keeping the prices low. Now it is different with supply chain blocked and physical infra destroyed which means it will take some time but it will come back. Iran is selling oil to China through same Hormuz and Saudis are using red sea route so that has taken care of some of the turmoil.

And if we go by the oil prices in Futures market then it seems they are pricing the moderate chances of opening of Hormuz or other resolutions. There are always insiders everywhere and they are the reasons people make life time fortunes in stocks and commodities. Last day also, there was a mysterious big spike in volumes in oil futures and S&P 500 just 15 minutes before Trump announcement. So, this is no coincidence and we can have a clue from oil prices. Today I was expecting a big jump in Crude but it was settled at 4%. 

Then, India is buying Venezuela oil now and even today India has bought major chunk from them. I don’t know why there is no talk about it yet- how much is coming and at what cost. India is one of the few globally to have the refineries to process their heavy crude. 

I am also assessing the situation in case the war ends with lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and that oil comes to the market. If we can see US will be in a critical situation in controlling the oil supply globally and you people can easily understand that that oil will be priced in BRICS’ favourite Petrodollar!!! And with it, you all can understand the real US game in saving dollar and their economy and their global power. So Dollar is the asset to buy now and that’s why I am sharing all the time that now is not the time for Gold. And we can see also why India may fit big time into US oil schema as we are the biggest customer.

Hopefully, things are looking under control. I am guessing a lot of secret deals.

(Good news is that the countries across the globe has now realised their mistake and all have come together to arrange one NOBEL for Trump. Another secret deal doing the rounds is that since Pakistan is mediating so Trump will nominate Asif Munir for Nobel and later on Munir will hand over the same to Trump saying it was Trump's Idea. I think these are much better plans.)

24^th Mar, 09:00 PM IST

Dear All Today Modi ji addressed and going by his speech I think we will see some action on oil prices soon...tmrw may be. Market may be quite volatile although i think all this has already been priced in.

If we can see the oil scenario now, the likes of Canada, Russia are the biggest winner. US is also not losing anything. Israel and Gulf nations have bigger stakes in Iran regime change, they will get huge benefits. But even bigger casualty is BRICS and their currency plans which was pure nonsense…as i am sharing from time to time...this Gold buying spree was sort of nonsense. How can India china with so much enmity and mistrust can be partners in new currency...that too primarily linked with Yuan.

I always felt that if India was really getting involved in any such new BRICS currency plans that would be a mistake. If we can see, all this action by Trump is to show BRICS its real place...a block of mostly pariah states. How can these pariah states can be trusted like Dollar? So i have no doubt that Trump wanted to hit BRICS badly...BRICS even included IRAN last year. I am sure message was given to Modi Ji before war and Russia is now trying to make India think. What all this BRICS bonhomie has really produced- Dollar rising big time again. They wanted to hit dollar but Trump has hit their economies hard. If this war goes longer and Oil prices stay high then our GDP growth is hit and looks like market will get this msg tmrw.

Gold looks like getting ready for a big hit...i have warned many times earlier that at these prices Gold is more like a risky stock. But i want to really see now how Russia will be coming to help India by not charging big for oil. Elections are coming this year and any spike in inflation means BJP will be gone. The anti BJP elements will try to spread as much misinformation as possible and we can see external factors getting involved  to destabilise India. So tough time for Modi ji but i think they will be able to find a solution. First, this is not their fault as the likes of Israel and GCC always wanted to hit Iran; although for different reasons. India has really done good work in the middle east under Modi government and I think UAE is one such relationship which will endure and stick for a long time. Saudis has already picked Pakistan. 

Now is the time for those so-called great Indian analysts who were/are cheering Iran win to see the impact of Iran’s actions on Hormuz. Only a fool can justify those actions especially when those are going to hit India hard. But amid all this, the attempts to end this war are going on. Pakistan is in difficult state so they are trying to mediate to stop this war because very soon we will see UAE/Saudis going to war with Iran and Pakistan has treaty with Saudis. US has also taken Pakistan name as a nuclear threat which is a message to them to either join the war or face consequences. Modi ji have talked to both Iran PM and Trump today. So I think message to Iran will be clear- either agree or face entire middle east and may be Europe and I think the same message was given to Putin yesterday and Putin for the sake of Ukraine may be trying to get Iran into agreement. So still quite a number of options and hopefully we will see something good.

One thing which i am sharing from time to time is that global markets are not worried abt this war and how much time it would take. Just see Ukraine war- after initial reaction markets never bothered abt them and they are like doing their war at some other planet. so just like Ukraine war, the issue now is oil prices. If they are able to find a solution for that then everything will be normal. That's why Trump has sort of given the task to end this war on countries feeling the heat of this oil choke- GCC, Pakistan, Europe and even India. Iran wanted to use this oil choke as startegic advantage (which is well known to all in advance) and now trump is trying to to reverse that by making other countries to challenge Iran.

24^th Mar, 05:00 PM IST

Dear All, one thing which I forgot to address is the last day call between Trump and Putin. Right now, a large number of different combinations are being tried. It is for sure that US wanted Russia to do something in this war for them in exchange for something in Ukraine. It is for sure that US under trump is trying to take Russia in their side- but these attempts are never absolute and they are always ready for a parallel opposite arrangement also. 

 

Many people believe that this war is good for Russia from a strategic point of view because now west will be trapped in this war for a long time and Russia will be able to handle Ukraine well. But I don’t think so- This war is beneficial for Russia economically…there is no doubt that Russia will make billions from oil. But strategically this can be very dangerous- because in case US is able to hit iran and bring regime change or make it weaken and unstable then this will be a huge loss for Russia. Iran is a big partner for Russia in countering the western/American hold on global power. These anti west nations are called CRINK-China, Iran, Russia and our beloved KIM Bhaiya (North Korea). So this war is not with some 3^rd party but an ally of Russia. Together these countries were able to bypass all western sanctions and everything else. So I don’t think Russia is that happy at this war. USA is looking like starting its long-term strategy to enforce their power and control globally which is not good for Russia at this point. Cuba is already the next target- another China asset which will be taken away from them by USA.

 

So, I think Russia will be more interested in the closure of this war at this stage. Russia may be ready for Iran to get something give something. But I am not sure what was the msg to Trump from Putin but I think both will try to negotiate. If I am Russia then I know my bigger focus and interest is Ukraine war and if US is ready to give me something for that then I should try to end this war by giving something to USA.

 

We are seeing India Russia having more talks and they are all about oil. US tried to get India to their terms by buying lesser oil from Russia off late but now the situation is that India is trapped now and Russia also stopped discount on Oil. So, we may see discount coming back and something bigger. 

 

Modi ji went to Israel just 2 days before the war so there is no doubt that he was told about the war. These things are never shared over phone. So, something is happening behind the scene where India is having a bigger role. Before that visit, UAE president visited India for 2 hours in jan-2026. All these are not coincidences and routine matters. India was/is never an important player in global geopolitics as our stake was/is mainly about Pakistan. But this government has started taking some decisive actions and even started picking sides. 

 

Will share more.

 

24^th Mar, 01:30 PM IST

 

Dear All, the phase of uncertainty for MARKET is going on…and also for our great analysts who really think that in geopolitics surficial data is the reality. For them, Trump has made unilateral ceasefire out of fear. But when powerful people want to retreat then they don’t do the same in a way market thinks Trump is doing. If Trump is really fearing of Iranian might and wants a backdoor retreat then he will simply close the war saying we have achieved our objectives of hitting their military infrastructure. 

 

Right now, there are talks going on for real. And I have also shared earlier that there is a high possibility of some secret talks with alternate people…people of choice for US even in IRGC. GCC nations like Saudi and UAE are the ones trying hard for this deal otherwise they will join the war…they must have given this message to Iran. If deal fails then they will join the war. Trump has given them 5 days to make a deal. People may not like him (I am also against him if he is working against India) and one reason people are spreading useless news that he is losing the war etc.

 

Many people are sharing large number of news/videos about experts saying Trump is losing this war and Iran has surprised. So we are being told that Iran is winning and will take call from point of strength. This is the biggest joke I have heard of late. We are being shown Iran missiles/Drones hitting Middle east/Israel (mostly on uncertain targets) and people just clap. No videos are there from Iran because internet is blocked and our great analysts believe that nothing is hitting Iran!!

 

Iran was always supposed to withstand this war for 30-40 even 50-60 days because they have the army/weapons and money plus they don’t care much about its people getting killed. So, these same people who are declaring Iran winning just because it has survived 20 days have also declared Russia a winner against Ukraine even when Ukraine has endured the war for 5 years now!!! They shout big that Russia has killed the west; what a man and revolution. But I am always worried about the equation taking place for Russia who might have become weak and stretched…and USA may use this opportunity. Indian people need to understand that against China Russia may not help India. 

 

Israel has always helped India even when India didn’t recognize it. Israel went against its friend USA and supported India in all wars against Pakistan when USA was against India. Under Modi this relation with Israel has only strengthened with India buying and selling weapons to Israel being used in Hamas war. Indian stakes are way high in GCC nations where we have entered huge trade deals and millions of people working there. So, we can see easily Indian govt has chosen the side of US/Israel and is now criticizing Iran openly for Hormuz blockade. But it is shocking these stupid Indian analysts supporting a terrorist nation like Iran. India has to take similar actions against Pakistan…we have taken already most recently in operation Sindoor.

 

Khamenei was supported by CIA for coming into power in Iran but later on he turned out to be a Shia islamist hardliner and he even went against US interests in Oil. And US followed with sanctions. So, all this mess was created by all of them…not because of some general good but only for bloody power where they just killed people in Iran every year. US helped Khamenei so they had the right to demand obligations, Khamenei promised and then backstabbed. So, If we really want to be objective here then just see what most Iranian want and they all want the end of Regime.

 

So, no Iran is winning this war- because this is not a drama movie. And hence no catastrophe will happen…these are just short time disturbance. Further, there are people in Iran who understands that best way to win this war is to agree to US demands and survive their regime. I think Trump must have given Israel and its army the timeline for ending war by which they need to hit Iran hard…and after that Trump will close the war. If regime survives still the objective is achieved- A weak, unstable and poor Islamic regime…and US/Israel will continue to act against them and will come again. But most probably we will see something big happening soon. 

 

23^rd Mar, 04:30 PM IST

 

Dear All, today markets have fallen due to the threat of Iran to hit oil fields across the middle east if US attacks their energy sources because trump has given 48 hours ultimatum. Now again people across the world (include great Indian journalists) are ridiculing Trump because Iran has issued counter warning and people are saying Iran is treating US/Trump as shit. But this happen when so called greatest geopoliticians don’t understand the real war games…when they think that a US president can really be that fool. People think that US is losing war and Iran is hitting them like anything…but still Trump has the power to issue a warning? Whether entire US army is that foolish…they are losing a war and instead of finding a way to de-escalate and looking for a way out they are issuing warnings?

 

Why Trump is issuing this ultimatum- US is not dependent on Oil imports, infact they are the biggest exporter right now. But Trump knows that China, Europe needed all this oil from middle east. So if US hits Iran Oil and then Iran hits Gulf oil reserves who will be the biggest loser? It is not US but China, Europe and middle east nations. So, Trump has increased their stakes significantly…he is giving them a message- either join him in this decisive war at the front or pay the price. But he is not ready to let people have free lunch.  China will be devastated…and I think their tone has mellowed now. They are not talking abt Taiwan attack. 

 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte defended Trump's military action in Iran and even praised his leadership. Few days back these people were criticizing Trump and were not ready to join him. Last day Iran showed it has long range ballistic missiles by attacking Diego Garcia which is some 4000 km away. It means Europe is in the firing line of Iran.

 

Similarly, gulf guys were not ready to attack Iran but now with this threat from trump they are not left with any choice. They need to take a call now.

 

Given a chance, india would have tried to not let Pakistan having Nuclear weapons. Similarly, I don’t think nuclear in the hands of unstable and radical nations like Iran is good. Iran earlier said that they don’t have long range missiles but last year in Oct-25 they said they were renouncing their commitments to that and now all of a sudden in few months they have long range missiles. All this mess in Iran is the result of so much of radical nonsense in the past where even US/UK also played their part in so many coups. So this is their mess and they are dealing with it…We Indians have no locus standi to take a stand against US. If trump can really end Iran and its proxies then the world may be a better place…at least for now.

 

Now what- in my view Trump has these things in Mind behind his 48 hour ultimatum. He wants to end free lunch to all these parties. So, I think we will see some decisive moves now…in these 24 hours. The collective response from all these actors will be too much for Iran to deal with. We can understand that a lot of deals are being tried behind the scenes. With this one Move, trump has made all to run and take a firm stand. So I think finally we are nearing something big and decisive. Let’s see if I am right in my prediction.

 

I am trying to assess the situation and will be sharing…next 24 hours make or break. And my bet is on Make.

 

20^th March, 01:00 PM IST

 

Dear All, as i am sharing from time to time, I have no doubt that US plan is to hit China out of the middle east. Israel is more focused on regime change in Iran. So I don’t think they are out of the track...Iran always have the capability to hit back but that capability is more about choking oil....the other damage caused by Iran is not that big. China will try hard to counter US/Israel so we will see some more fireworks. US wants the control of Iranian oil so US won’t allow oil to be hit...or US might allow Israel to hit oil in Iran so that Iran hit the oil fields of Gulf nations and then they won’t have any choice but to enter war with US.

 

So it is a chess board game and US will try many such moves...I think Trump knows very well what he is doing. As i am sharing from time to time, this is not about who is good and who is bad...ethics or larger good is never the reason or viewpoint to see a war. You ask Iranian people and most are against the current regime and if we are based on that then US/Israel are doing good. But they are not doing that for Iranian people so the focus is something else. US is not our friend but China is our biggest enemy so a weakened China is great news for India. I dont believe a strong Iran with current regime is good for India...very dangerous. China at the point of strength will deal tough with India.

 

You know who is the biggest winner of this war- not gold or silver but DOLLAR. Gold/silver are falling which is quite the opposite most people were thinking. This is how the world of investment behaves. There are also chances that investors are selling gold to buy cheaper equities. But demand for dollar as safer asset is rising big. Rising gas price means US gas companies will mint huge money. I have shared about the risks of Gold and BRICS trying some adventures in dec. 

 

Some people are still shouting of a world war coming but it is not happening. just look at the globe...there are no definite sides/group...two groups having aligned objectives/targets to fight with the other group. No such two groups exist right now...so no world war. China will try to show some drama around Taiwan...but unfortunately US knows that china can't attack it...North Korea will do some dancing but deep down even they know that a free US (from middle east) will eye uniting North and South korea.

 

 

6th March (Motive behind this war): 

 

Dear All, there are many media reports especially from Indian analysts narrating that this US Iran war is not good for India and India will be in a very dangerous position. The crux of their analysis is that a weakened and disintegrated Iran will rely more on China and even Pakistan and that will hit India hard. Many analysts I know have also shared the same view along with oil supply issues and they are predicting Indian market falling more because of this. But I really hope that our market may be able to understand the reality and ignore this view. Let me share.

 

a) Current situation- First, let’s try to see what is the situation before this war. Last year US and Israel hit and destroyed most of the Iran’s nuclear sites plus their drone manufacturing units along with many of the top commanders from IRGC. So, they have already eliminated their main worry. So, the question is what is left for them to be so eager for a strike now? One thing we know- It is not Nuclear. 

 

b) Objective behind war- If US Israel are taking this much risk in attacking Iran then there must be some bigger purpose. Iran is not a torn, destabilized and disoriented country, they have very credible army and sophisticated military equipment capable of inflicting significant damage. Plus Iran has very dangerous proxy network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen which enables it to open multi front war encircling Israel and Middle east countries. So, we know that in case of a war Iran will hit you hard. But then why US and Israel and their GCC allies are taking so much pain for this war?

 

If we read these analysts, they are of the view that US/Israel want to hit Iran hard, they wanted to eliminate Khamenei and IRGC top tier and also to inflict big damage to Islamic regime. But what US will get out of this show of power by spending huge resources and taking risks and also seeing the destruction in their own backyard? Why US/Israel will just be happy in seeing some fireworks in Iran and then they will pack their bags? Why US/Israel will leave Iran further weakened and destabilized when they know this will only enable China Russia to make more inroads into Iran and become more critical for its existence and survival? Do you think US/Israel are that fool to not visualize and envisage this? 

 

c) as I am sharing from time to time- this war and most of other wars have no motive for larger good. It is all about protecting your interest or limiting your enemy/competitor. So we need to understand this war from the point of view of US/Israel considering them as rational strategic players not some dramatic fools. Trump is a risk taking guy; the one with very deep understanding of Game theory. He knows how to act, portray, pose and behave to make people uneasy and forcing them to be in their safety. He poses like a Mad man but that’s only to make people ready to renounce and negotiate. As he is pushing India quite a bit so he is not our friend but he deserves some credit for trying to take US forward.

But forward against what and where?

 

d) If we see Iran- it is a proxy of China (or an asset of China). An Asset because China has invested quite a bit of effort and resources in it. China buys around 90% of Iran Oil at big discounts (secretly from the eyes of US) and then Iran buys all and everything from China- tech and equipment. Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are the ones behind most of Iran’s telecommunications infrastructure. Then China has provided Iran’s camera network (AI enabled), then its Internet is based on Chinese tech. So we can understand with these tech infra China really controls the tech part of Iran.

So Iran means China. 

 

e) Now then, what is Iran for others in the GCC- It is a headache because it behaves like a mafia don. It has terrorist proxies Hizballah, Hamas, Houtis. It is a nuisance for them and China provides them the leverage to control Iran. So GCC countries feel grateful to China to control Iran and they are happily giving huge contracts to China and China has been able to penetrate big in GCC countries and building their ports, railways, 5G networks. And Voila! China has become indispensable for them and dominate player in middle east which is the global energy source.

 

So what is Iran for China- it is an asset not an ally like US has Japan or South Korea. Many people are shouting that why China is not helping Iran. Because it is not an ally of China; it is an asset and an asset is always used for strategy. China will never take the risk of fighting with US for Iran or Venezuela.

 

f) US knows all this- that China is happy to see US consuming time and resources to contain all the mess created by Iran. Here, I am not talking about Iran being good to India or our friend. Iran has always supported Pakistan in case of Kashmir. Above all this it is an asset of China. It is CHINA. US understands pretty well that a weakened and unstable Iran will be more dangerous for its foreign policy because it will give more control of China over it. 

 

g) Russia- Russia got drones from Iran against Ukraine war when it was facing tough times from Turkish Drones. But it paid Iran for that- it was a trade. Iran needed those dollars…billions may be. Then Russia has a pact with Israel for no-attack. Further, trump is supporting the cause of Russia in Ukraine war. Trump is helping Russia by enforcing their terms for negotiations. So Russia will stay out of this war. Russia needs global recognition and wants to be accepted in the global circles as a responsible and great power which Trump is ready to give them.

 

h) It is all about China- So we can understand that US knows who is the major beneficiary of a weakened Iran upto now and in the future also. So in my view, both Israel and US won’t leave the task midway this time. Israel has weakened the proxies of Iran (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) in the last 2 years or so. Hence they know that they have the best time to eliminate Islamic rule in Iran. So in my view, we will see US/Israel not stopping before regime change or something similar. And I think there must be some sort of secret deal placed somewhere.

(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).

 

Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations (Part 2)

 Please Click here for earlier Post

Ukraine is still standing; not sure whether on one leg or two but the same is irrelevant in the face of great fighting spirit shown by Ukraine. This we can say is a fantastic fight back. When US and NATO declared that they won’t support Ukraine against Russia; Russia was smiling at that time at the pitifulness and helplessness of Ukraine and just like Russia everybody discounted them as a loser without any will left to fight. But these types of events are the reason that history books have something interesting to tell; these are the events where they don’t need historians to create (Read fabricate) a narrative to generate/justify/impose an alternate reality. It would be interesting to see how Russian history books would narrate (read downgrade) this tremendous fight back.

So as I have explained in the earlier post- Strong and prolonged resistance by Ukrainians have disrupted the Russian plans for regime change and now Russia has to reassess and recalculate the inflow matrix. Russia and Ukraine are going to have another round of talks today although just a week back Russia was not even picking their calls and it had no interest in talks. So it means Russia has lost because now it can only destroy Ukraine but can't win and that's why we are seeing them talking. The deal point at the talking table now is- Russia won't destroy Ukraine and in return it will take something from Ukraine and what Ukraine can give is a wild guess because I don't think Russia's sole purpose for war was not allowing Ukraine to join NATO. As I have shared earlier- I feel Russia doesn't want democracy near its borders and Putin wants to revive the USSR before he is gone from this world and he knows he is losing time. Putin wanted to make Russia a big economic power when he started in 1999, even wanted to Join NATO. But as of now we know Russia is still far from being a big economic power. Its exports are mainly natural resources (not high value added products). So there are more political aspects to the current quagmire than security aspects. Why did (what fear) small eastern European (earlier USSR members) countries join Nato? Whether NATO was really interested in Russian territory (NATO expansion card)? Whether Russia ever counted NATO as a big threat to its security and whether there is any doubt that NATO was on its death bead two months back so as to pose any real threat to Russia (now revived by Russia)? Anyone who feels there are real/genuine answers (Not just speculations) for these questions can understand that things are much more complex than a feeble NATO expansion Card being cited as a reason for this war. So as of now, I can't say that Russia was only worried about NATO expansion and we are not really sure what further destruction he can do (or he is already having plans). Putin has been successful in creating an image of an unpredictable fellow who can take irrational actions and that's why west is feeling a bit constrained in its reaction and planning to counter Putin. But I don't think that he is that irrational fellow because the same recklessness and irrationality is not on display in other spheres of his life and relations with other countries whether it is India or china; Putin has always taken rational decisions when it is with India or china so I think west has to plan their answers treating his as a rational fellow and then this bloody game is a great Game theory stuff- who will take what actions and strategies to counter the others. 

Russia is our greatest friend but that doesn't mean that friends can't make mistakes or dangerous miscalculations. However in geopolitics we don’t raise a finger towards the mistake of friends because most of those who want us to raise our finger also have bloody hands and nobody is interested in us and our security. Truth (Realty) is never linear and one dimensional. In a more logical world, Russia can't justify its invasion pointing out that the likes of USA have also done it many times. Russia said that Ukraine People are dying under Nazis and that they wanted to save them; but now they are the ones who are killing them and destroying their schools/hospitals/everything so that they can bring them to the table to have a deal to save their face. So Russia has done something which has weakened it (and India also) and I just hope that a more weakened Russia due to economic sanctions doesn't strengthen China too much. A weak Russia will find it tough to support India. So we can't really be certain in whose interest this war started- Ukraine, Russia or just Putin but one thing is looking certain that it will hit Indian interests and that's what matters the most for an Indian. Rest all becomes secondary in this weird and imperfect world. Pakistan who once was a fierce Russian enemy and the one responsible for their defeat in Afghanistan and then subsequent division of the USSR is now an ally of Russia. So Russia will ensure its interests before supporting India. The good thing is that India understands that It can't really count others in its fights; if anyone can join then good but India doesn't and can't really expect too much from others and that's why we are neutral and don't mess with the affairs of others.

So in a more logical world we can expect that as Russia really doesn't have anything to gain by winning or destroying Ukraine and costs and other economic, political and global implications are very harsh and hence we could expect both Russia and Ukraine to break a peace deal today or in near term...this is no brainer (in a logical world). But Putin has shown we can't really expect him to follow the logic- otherwise he doesn't have anything to justify the war/invasion. But still I really feel and hope that by now the ensuing Russian fall might have forced Putin to reassess, recalculate and recalibrate his much bigger and ambitious plans and we can expect some peace coming soon.

A big positive (feels good to talk about positives amid this catastrophe) I see after any such peace deal is that the World may witness a longer peace period. For a long time, I have been feeling that some big war may happen at any time in the world because there is too much negative energy buildup. We have countries like China who are ready to create nuisance all the time. We have too many conflicts everywhere. Everybody feels that they are strong enough to destroy the others...so the likes of China are doing nonsense everywhere in every possible way and world really was/is like a dangerous volcano waiting to erupt any time. But this war has shown the fragility of power and the strength of the weak. So people have seen the destruction they wanted to see for a long time and also understood the results that in today's world nobody is really that weak. The war has sort of released the pressurized energy and people should focus on peace. Hence I feel if both can find a peace deal then we may see the world becoming a peaceful place...in a sense that it has avoided a more serious, destructive and bigger war.

Although the likes of China may emerge stronger due to a weak Russia and they will try to create nuisance but I feel a silent Chinese decoupling from the global supply chain is already underway and then even China won’t be able to withstand economic sanctions if they try anything similar to Russian misadventure. But India will always be alone to fight China though the QUAD presents some hope because out of sheer foolishness China (most dictators are foolish or turned foolish over time) has created an enemy out of India and forced India to join hands with USA when China’s main adversary in realizing its global dreams (starting from Taiwan and South china sea) is USA not India. China doesn’t have any serious conflicts with India which can hit its economic or security considerations. India has even allowed China to get away with Tibetan occupancy. So India was always ready to achieve peace and that’s where China has miscalculated- to consider the peace willing fellow as weak. India is willing to flex its muscles now (Especially under Modi) and is not ready to accept any Gunda-gardi.

But we may see some dramatic realignments happening in the geopolitical arena in the next 2-3 years. Pakistan will destabilize and we may see it changing parties and the same may end at either loosing POK to India or closing a peace deal with India although before that India needs to oust China from POK and so we can see that India-China rivalry may take center stage and Pakistan will be just waiting in the corner and thus we have entered a period where Pakistan as an adversary is going out of the way. And that’s why this Russia Ukraine war is so important for India as this will also direct/impact Chinese strategy. China is predominately an export based economic power (with many challenges inside) and the people who earn money from others don’t fight with them. One reason the likes of USA who are big customers for many (They import big from everywhere) can wreak havoc by stopping/shifting their imports and as USA is the biggest trading partners for most of the world so it is very tough for anyone (like China) to ignore USA economic sanctions….USA is the biggest consumer in this world…a consumer with one very valuable commodity-Dollar. So India just needs to strengthen its economy and defence capabilities and creating strong allies and there may come a situation for India even to reassess its relations with Russia if the question is to counter China.

We will start investing again once some peace is emerging on the horizon...preferably next week

(oscillationss@yahoo.in)

Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations

 Dear All, I am regularly receiving messages to share my views on Ukraine-Russia war. First of all I am extremely sorry for not being able to post updates/studies on this blog for a long time. Actually I am working on something related to stock analysis/advisory work and hence not getting time for posting the studies as of now. But I will start the same shortly.

About the war- I am sharing my messages on this which I am regularly sharing with the newsletter club of this blog. Please note that I am not a war or geopolitics expert and my views are constrained/limited to my very limited knowledge of the subject. Still as the issue was related to our stock Investments so I have shared my views and we will take the investment calls accordingly. So please ignore my views if you find them inaccurate/illogical (or funny). Ever since the war has been started by Putin I have been feeling that although Russia looks perfect to win the War but some of its calculations- like easy and fast win  without much of Ukraine fight back, less harsh economic sanctions as it has some European countries to support it and their reliance on Russian oil/Gas may not happen as per their calculations and we may see some unexpected and unwanted surprises. So I still feel that Russian mis-calculations can lead this war into something very catastrophic and that’s why even though Russia is our friend I am not supporting this war (As Russia could have easily avoided the war and still emerged victorious achieving objectives).  A stronger China emerging from this war is not good for India. The need is to see this war from Indian, Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar.

From: Oscillations  Date: Sat, 26 Feb, 2022, 13:03
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All, 

Surprisingly Kyiv is still standing and Ukraine is giving a very tough fight. Their president is acting brave and he is in Kyiv and leading from the front and even refused US help to evacuate. Ukrainian people are also ready for right. This man was supposed to act like a comedian ( he was a comedian before) but now he is some sort of a global hero...and wars are fought on these emotions and motivations. Ukraine was supposed to surrender on the first day but they still are giving a bloody fight. This man made a mistake earlier for not strengthening borders earlier when Russians were at the door...but at that time he was sort of assured of NATO and US support.

Ukraine never supported India at UN/kashmir...sold arms to Pakistan. As Russia is our partner and a time tested friend in tough times so India should not Vote against Russia now and should keep a neutral view. But we just hope that their miscalculations shall not hit our interests. Like more than a Russian win India should be more concerned about stronger China emerging out of this war as a reliable Russian partner and china will try madly to replicate Russian style invasions in India and other countries and Russia will support them even if they are against India. So I believe India must have or still been trying to make Russia accept peace. So the need is to see this war from Indian (indirectly not any direct action though), Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar. One linear perspective is never absolute. India needs to see this fight from its own perspective first-  how it will affect India from Russian angle/actions and that's why this war is not good for India...if Russia wins it is Bad but if it loses then the worst...along with a chance of a world war any time, India getting hard pressed to choose Russia or others, India getting involved in senseless and dangerous cold war for a long time, pakistan and China becoming stronger especially when a weak Russia needs their support for its economy. 

The earlier Narrative that Russia is doing this to counter Nato efforts does not look credible at all. Russia was supposed to hit and weaken Nato but Nato was a dying alliance before this war and present russian actions has in fact reignited the alliance and EU is now following and buying the US narrative of Russian danger. I don't think that Putin was such a fool to not understand this...that nato will get alert and will strengthen themselves and their security and expansion. Still he chose the war and this is what worries me of his true intentions. I feel US and NATO announced earlier not to send armies in order to stop Russia from launching a war...their involvement means sure shot world war so in spite of public humiliation it looks like they have tried to avoid the global war. At that time, Russia was also having an opportunity to leave war plans on a high claiming a win which would have still served its objectives. But sadly for unknown reasons he chose the opposite.

Russia missed the opportunity on the first day when Ukraine was not ready for the assault. I think attacking from 3-4 positions/sides may be one reason. Russia is still an expected winner but it has a very bloody nose with large no. of casualties and if the number rises further then this will be sort of a humiliation for the very strong Russian army. This has given time to Ukraine to get their act and supplies together and get arms from other countries and now things will be more dangerous for Russia. The Russian supply chain is not doing good and it is an old weakness...so there are tanks and vehicles left without fuel...their soldiers are asking for food from local people. Most are just kids (18-20 years) pushed/forced into war. They are crying after they are captured.

The Ukrainian people are all ready for a fight. Quite the opposite of what Russia was thinking or declaring. Russia/Putin said that Nazis are ruling Ukraine and Ukraine people will cheer and embrace Russian army...to see themselves getting liberated. So much disillusion and histeria if Putin really believed in it or was made to believe!! But this hasn't happened at all and Ukraine's president is now a global Hero and if there was even a small contribution of this illusion in their motive behind the attack then Russia will be in some very difficult time.

We can assume that Russia will now become more deadly but the time lost has given Ukraine much time to regroup and also given fire to the protests in Russia which is very bad. Surprise attack element and quick capture of Kyiv and dislodging of the Govt was the key which didn't happen at all as per expectations. Russia is hitting civilian targets although Russia was supposed to liberate these people earlier who as per its understanding were living under hell. But there are nobody in local buildings anymore...they were supposed to be in there on the first day of the surprise attack and subsequent expected control of Ukraine...which never happened as per calculations. This is why war calculations are always wrong... because they are mostly based on underestimating the opponent and over-estimating themselves.

There are numerous examples in Vietnam, Afghanistan that the will/motivation to fight for freedom is more important (for a win) than a strong army and great high tech arms. Even if the invader succeeds in placing a puppet government the same never succeeds in controlling/running and it always needs support from the invader and is always ousted by local people whenever they get stronger. That's why the Russian puppet govt if they can install one stands no chance and perhaps Russia does or will realise this. Economic sanctions will hit Russia very hard in spite of whatever plans they are having to counter it. SWIFT ban if happen will be very bad for its economy. I hope that effectiveness of these sanctions may deter  China from invading Taiwan but they will intimidate India and chances are very less that any West/US country will come for our help. So a stronger China (Most probably in case of a Russian Win) may chose first to target India than Taiwan.

Russian real win was a win without much opposition and blood bath…that Ukrainian people/other countries don't have any reaction time and govt/regime is changed in Ukraine...but this is not what is exactly happening. Russia have to inflict a lot of damage to Ukraine infrastructure and general public. And so their win isn't going to be that effective...the destruction they have inflicted is not what a supporter does and Russia was posing like the one to their people. The initial plan was perfect to change the regime without people understanding much but with destruction the narrative and scenario has completely changed for Russia...and that's why chances of any misstep by Russia are higher now. All Russian calculations about getting less harsher sanctions or global outcry or its oil/gas bargain over EU was dependent upon quick capture of Ukraine but as it has not happened so all calculations are going wrong. Russia must have calculated EU countries like Germany/Italy/France supporting less harsher sanctions (like SWIFT ban) and caring for Oil/Gas supply from Russia but the delay and destruction will force these countries to change their stance and actions. I think these countries earlier supported Russia thinking that Russia will not wage a war after Ukraine agreeing to its demands for not joining Nato but now with so much destruction and fear of a global war these countries will see things differently and may make things very hard for Russia as far as Sanctions/Oil Gas import/Helping Ukraine are concerned.So Russia may be in some very tough times.

About NATO enlargement Issue- So far I have refrained from touching this topic as my knowledge in this respect is very limited. I don't like reading political documents/history at all. But still i feel if there was any such assurance then where is the document? Actually here are disagreements among scholars and is highly debatable but the then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had also confirmed that the Nato expansion topic was never raised. In fact, Russia also (including Putin) wanted to join Nato in 1990s and 2000s. But I feel in case such assurance was indeed given to Russia then they would have wanted to get the same in writing. However, I don’t think that there is any such written assurance available. Further, NATO is a formal alliance of countries/members with written rules so unless all members give their consent for any issue I don't think anyone from NATO can give such non-expansion assurance and there is no such written formal documents from NATO members also. So we can’t say what was promised and what not. But there is one written document between Russia and Nato- NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997 an agreement on mutual relations, cooperation and security and that NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. But there is no mention of any such Nato expansion stoppage (as far as I can see after a hurried glance at such a boring political document). NATO-Russia Council was also founded in 2002. Nato expanded in 2000s and if there was any such non-expansion assurance then the same would have been invoked by Russia at that time. I feel at that time, Russia was more concerned about leaving Russia out of the crucial decisions (I think like Serbia/Kosovo) but Russia was never worried that Nato was a threat to it. Also, if both take actions where they pose that they are a danger to each other then it is natural that both would take actions to enhance security (by alliances also) and so in this regard we can’t say that Nato alone is responsible for creating such threat.So common sense says that both Nato and Russia need to sit peacefully and try to find a final solution for the betterment of humanity. We are tired of this nonsense mess.

Russia does have a strong army but I think they may not be having relevant ground war experience and this is why they are not successful in capturing the territory...they are doing deadly air/missile attacks but not on the ground. They tried to took one airport near Kyiv (Hostomel) but met with heavy Ukraine attack and destruction. This may be their hurried effort or lack of planning I don't know but their ground work capabilities are not looking good.

Just like most Indians, I also like our Friend Russia and Putin...Russia still plays our songs (They are crazy for Mithun/Bappi da song "Jimmy Jimmy" from Disco dancer movie and you can still see them using/enjoying this song in their shows/remixes...I have so many russian versions with me and they are just fantastic). One version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P09ow9sY6Y

(Just see the passion, joy and energy). That's why I am very concerned about Russia doing anything costly.

Still hoping for an end to this nonsense war and peace prevailing and praying that this war does not turn into something catastrophic.

Regards

Gurpreet singh

From: Oscillations  Date: Fri, 25 Feb, 2022, 20:02
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

I got some msgs as to why I don't support this Russian invasion even though I am saying that Russia is our friend. Actually let me tell you one thing- Ukraine joining the Nato narrative is given by Russia for the attack but I have a feeling that Russia is using this as a pretext...it was going to invade anyhow. Putin always wanted to merge Ukraine into Russia as it never recognized its independence and one valid reason for Ukraine to tilt towards the west. Putin is looking to have much bigger ambitions and he has taken the gamble now thinking US is tired and weak after the Afghan meltdown...but my worry is that his madness can turn this war into world war any time and this is the big risk for this small victory...and the reason I don't support this move. So i feel that this Ukraine joining Nato narrative is just on the surface...it is for bacha party...Putin might be having much sinister plans or ambitions to make Russia a big power again. But this may cost Russia dearly and when I say this I am not talking about their defeat in Ukraine but over a much longer period. EU and US will see the re-ignition of Russia threat and whole world will be dragged into a nonsense cold war and a potential world war at any time. And India will face some very tough and complex scenarios- it won't be able to decide whether it needs strong Russia or weak Russia. And that's why time has come for India to upgrade its defence manufacturing and luckily they are trying to focus on that. 

Actually earlier Russia was a counter balance for India to US support to pakistan so Russia had a big role in our strategy. But time has changed now- US is no longer an adversary but a potential big partner and Pakistan is going to be dead on its own on one fine day. India's most decisive and existential fight now is with China against which Russia may not help much. Russia now is also building ties with Pakistan. As they say in geopolitics- there are no permanent friends but permanent interests. I still want a stronger and wise Russia as they have supported us during tough times and they understand the evil designs of China. So still hope that better sense prevails and war ends soon and the Nato Narrative is real.

So I only hope that this war ends in the manner everybody is expecting- Russia wins and controls Ukraine...but destiny has the reserved right for the unexpected.

From: Oscillations  Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

I hope you all are in fine shape as far as market mood is concerned. I hope nobody has done panic sale. Last day reaction from Indian market was way over-reaction as we were the biggest loser. Last day got many msgs from Indian brokers and many have advised selling after last day's fall...members/friends asked my opinion on the same and I told them that It (brokerages’ decision to sell) was a bit ill-timed and shared with them that we are not selling. Nobody was anticipating that Russia will do this step as Ukraine and Nato was ready for a talk as EU was not in favor of a conflict with Russia. So it was a sort of shock for the market but i think Putin gave a clear war signal last week when he said in anger that Ukraine was doing genocide. But I was not expecting this much fall/reaction from Indian market as long as there is any sign from US and Nato to engage directly as they have already shared that they won't fight directly. Many from US called me when US market was down but I told them to wait for Biden's message and if he was not engaging directly then there is nothing to worry ( As of now). 

Ukraine is doing a fine job and they have given a strong resistance...which nobody was expecting. Russia has suffered heavy damage...Ukraine MOD says that 800 russian army are killed which is a big number if it is true. Last night some reports were for 3200. Ukrainian are taking back the posts captured by Russian army and this is going to be the order for quite some time as long as Kyiv is standing. Sanctions are going to hit Russian very hard and If EU agrees on SWIFT removal then Russia will be in a very big trouble though the likes of Germany/Italy are opposing ( Still sanctions on Russian banks are a very big blow). Quite surprisingly, Russian people are on the street opposing russian invasion and as number of Russian causalities grow, the situation can get worst any time in Russia. In fact, last night I was really thinking that Russia may see another division in the next few years even though they want to annex Ukraine. 5-10 years are a big chunk of the life of an individual but for a country's journey 20 years are also a small number. Countries plan for 20 years strategies. So Ukraine needs to create a noise around Russian causalities as Russia will not disclose this number and economic sanctions will hit the morale of Russian population and this can create serious riot like situations. I am sure the likes of US/EU are contemplating this.

If US can force EU to leave Russian Oil/Gas then the US will be very happy. China looks like a winner but it is mainly about US response for any future Taiwan invasion and China has to take a big risk in assuming that US will not react. Putin I still feel acted more like a Gambler, to show Nato/US its power but he has already achieved the same without war. last day, Biden was smiling during address...people told me that he was looking confused but I did not feel like that. There are stories of valor of Ukrainian soldiers (like 13 soldiers in snake island) which will inspire Ukraine to fight tough, Russian soldiers are not looking in good shape, Ukraine president is still in Ukraine...so very tough fight. Today is the DAY...if Ukraine can survive today then Russia will be in BIG trouble. I expected Russia to be smart as we (India) need a strong Russia...I still feel that some of the Russian calculations may go for a big toss. A strong Russia may not help India against China but a weak Russia is good for China (although Russia gave India S-400 in spite of heavy Chinese opposition). So let's hope and Pray for Ukrainian people.

From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 21:11
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Everybody knows that Ukraine army is no match to Russia and that's what Russia has taken into its calculations. But they are much bigger now than 2014 and they will make Russia to pay a price. They can give them a bloody nose. Everybody knows that Ukraine can't win but the thing is the damage calculations may go wrong and by damage i mean all sorts of damage- economically. Russia might have calculated OIL/Gas as bargain but EU will act differently. They will bear the cost of high gas and give subsidy to its people (and still the cost will be lesser than a Russian threat)...Everybody feels that US will ignore Russia as it wants to target China but this is where the things can turn speculative as US may choose the other and US has every logic to choose the Russia along with China at a same time. Russia has done the same thing- it has tried to pose as a Madman and unpredictable ( this is what Putin portrays himself...that he can do anything and he is unpredictable). Russia can't think that It can achieve everything easily. Earlier Russia was hiding the death of Russian soldiers in separatists parts as death of separatists but now they have declared an armed conflict...and Russian people won't like the dead bodies of their soldiers coming in heap. The surprise is not about that Ukraine can win but Russia may have to pay much bigger price then it must have calculated. I am also hoping that as expected Ukraine will surrender in two days and as Putin has said that he has no intention to Occupy Ukraine so all ends in lowest possible damage. But my worry is that there may be some nasty surprise. And weak Russia (I hope they are not Mad Russia) is not good (at least for India)...a multi-polar world is needed not uni-polar (US) or Bio-polar (With nonsense China as the other).

Regards

From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 20:09
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

So Russia has finally opted for the ultimate and war has begun. But I still feel that Russia may be in for some big shock...although Russia feels that they have done all the calculations but there is never a perfect plan. Perfection is the right, domain and capability of the Almighty. Who is right and who is wrong is always the most complex thing in this world- Still, as I have shared earlier I think Russia has the right to protect itself from west/Nato missiles placed in Ukraine borders against Russia just like US had during the Cuban missile crisis. Russia sees Ukraine as extremely crucial for their survival against western attacks. The mode of ensuring the same by Russia is debatable but the world is never a perfect place. Some Indian newspapers/scholars are asking India to take a firm stand...and preferably against Russia in this issue. I am surprised to see this, by not condemning the Russian attack India has already announced its stand. Then, India needs a Strong Russia and I don't think that Russia will ever discount or denounce India. India is a rising power...and a very credible and ethical partner/power so Russia needs India. Russia as a younger brother to China is not good for India and a weaker Russia engaged in a prolonged war with Ukraine is good for US and then US can target China. So things are really complex in this multipolar and multidimensional world and we just hope that the crisis is over soon. 

I wonder whether Russia has made calculations to seize the entire Ukraine as this will prolong the crisis and inflict significant damage on Russia. Throwing missiles or bombs from aeroplanes can't make you own a territory...for that you have to enter the territory and that's where the things can go wrong for Russia. Ukraine must have been having large anti tank ammunations and night vision abilities supplied from the west and it can damage russian air supplies to its forces. Any large russian casualties at the front will result in massive outcry in russia. The issue was lingering for a long time and it is the failure of western powers in not being able to stop it...looks like world may be a far unstable place in the near future if this war does not end soon and on something ensuring long term peace.

From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All, 

So looks like Russia has already made its calculations and Ukraine joining Nato was not the main issue- it appears it doesn't want democracy in Ukraine. It has chosen to sent army to its areas of Influence in separatists regions of Ukraine which it is already supporting for a long time...by this it has so far chosen limited invasion but this may come at a huge cost. Ukraine not joining Nato was never a big issue and Russia could easily get the negotiations as other Nato nations have no intention to focus on Russia. But by declaring to undermine the democracy and independence of Ukraine, it appears that Russia has ventured into a danger zone and it may help US. Ukraine is not a soup and it will give a long bloody fight to Russia in separatist regions...in fact the same is already going for long. So if this issues is not resolved then russia needs to be ready for a long period of Guerrilla war in unstable regions and it will have huge economic and military costs for Russia. More economic sanctions will be imposed on Russia...now US can force EU to follow the same as Russia has chosen a different path away from Nato/ukraine issue. Nato will deploy more forces near Ukraine/Baltic seas and I don't think having them so near will settle any of Russian security fears. 

So looks like Russia has tried to get too much too soon and it may not yield best results. Western powers were already ready for the deal and Russia could claim victory by getting the Nato deal. But we poor people never know what these big people plan and why they plan so. Only Russia knows what it is planning to achieve. Russia must have counted China as a place to trade its Oil Gas/wheat...so it has chosen to embrace China (smelly) and only time will tell what was costliest for them. But China may not be a long term source for Oil/Gas as China is trying and investing big in renewables to be self sufficient in energy needs and it may happen quite sooner than anybody has anticipated. China is a tough negotiator and there is not any easy lunch for Russian firms in China so far and they could not get much market in China in spite of huge expectations. The trade is big now but limited to Energy and agriculture. Russia used to treat China as a younger brother but now China is behaving like the other. Russia has chosen to ignore many of China's actions like theft of technology and china is forcing it upon Russia in some ways like it forced Russia to avoid contracts in Vietnam/Taiwan. Russia doesn't deploy Chinese tech in critical areas like defense and communications. Russia does not allow Dalai lama in Russia so its Buddhist people travel to India for that. So Russia reacts too much to small useless statements from US/EU but ignore harsh China actions.But even here, Russia couldn't ignore India even as China is not happy. China is hoping that Russia may support it in Taiwan against US but Russia has not done the same so far as it also fears a nuclear war with US just like US fear now. So the conflict has its costs for Russia. 

So things are quite strange- Russia needs china for trade (Military support may not be the case)...China also needs Russia as it is feeling the heat from US led alliances ( India is already a part of one)...so Russia may feel it has power to make china check its arrogance. China US tussle is good for Russia but now Russia occupied in Ukraine may help US. Russia wants to show that it is not a declining power but China wants to take on US position and impose itself on the globe. So US will not care much for Russia and China is the target. Trade dependency on China is not good for Russia ( It needs to be seen what sanctions are imposed upon Russia)   Assertive Russia is not good for Europe and they will try to break away from Russian Gas (Only a matter of time). Russia now has some $630 billion (some $140-150 B in Gold) and it may feel that it can withstand the gas export stoppage for a long time but he is not the only smart guy in this world. Once EU finds a new gas supply (may be from Middle east/US) then the Russian threat/bargain is gone forever and then this $600 billion is only a matter of time.

World leaders don't always do the smartest- in fact they do the dumbest most of the times. The world is a chaotic place (politically and religiously) only because of these smart leaders. Like China wants to take on US at the world stage and needs Russia in its side but it has created a big enemy in India by creating border issue. China underestimated India completely and now it will pay a heavy price...India is a serious threat to Chinese because India has never been into any alliance so it knows how to trade alone. Sometimes back, a young girl told me that she wanted to be a writer and writing a book on how to live a great life (Motivational/self help/spiritual). I asked her why she wanted to be a Guru as she herself needed to see and live the real life first...why not to be a student first (and always) and then just share your experiences...why this nonsense to be a Guru...to lead people into nonsense ideology. World is tired of Gurus.

Once I was listening to one such Guru who was explaining the Ahimsa (Non-violence) and hailed it as mark of Indian way of life and ideology. But I told him that linear/blindfold Ahimsa is not Indian way....Lord Krishna told Arjuna to fight for the Dharma while Arjuna had chosen the path of so called Ahimsa. So Hinduism is not about Ahimsa but to fight when it is required to establish Dharma ( reaction not an action). Ahimsa is misrepresented- our infected bodies fight and kill bacteria so what is micro and macro level Ahimsa? So it is good that India is getting more assertive and China has made a big mistake in taking India lightly....in its calculations to show India its place and all its calculations went into haywire. So Russia has also made some calculations and chances are high that most of those will be wrong. Right now, only Russia knows what are these calculations and we will know after most of them are failed.

Indian markets should recover after a brief period of variability...then the issues like Oil gas prices will be back and market will choose its direction accordingly. So as i have shared earlier- it is better for members with moderate financial profile to wait for some more time. Let market stabilize when it is assured about the Russian routine course of action.

From: Oscillations Date: Wed, 16 Feb, 2022, 02:14
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All, 

One fellow just called me and told me about the cyber attacks on Ukraine defence/banks. He further told that Indian news channels are saying that this is the first sign of war sign. I told him to stop watching Indian news channels...they are jokers. They are good for fun-shun but no serious matter. I don't remember when last time I have watched an Indian news channel ( I like WION ( Palki Sharma) News though...owned by Zee). I feel Russia knows that Ukraine and West are listening to its demands so it has also started easing the tone down...giving soft signals. Cyber attacks may be another sign of showbaazi by Russia...of its capability. Russia has shown its military might by amassing more than one lac troops.

Somehow I feel, Europe & US understand that Russian worries about Nato coming near its borders are genuine...they know from inside that what they are trying is a real potential threat for Russia- Taking Nato near Russian borders. Nato can pose that they are for the security of the alliance members but in their heart they do understand that Russian unease is genuine. Why would Russia want its old and potential adversaries planting missiles near its border? And that's why I think most of the Nato members have distanced themselves...US also knows this. It is just like Bangladesh allowing china to place missiles near India border...and India will never allow this to Bangladesh.

So I still feel that chances of Russia-Ukraine all out war are very less. We will see some tough negotiations between Russia and Nato (US)...Ukraine was never the target but Nato. Russia would ask for the lifetime guarantee from Nato and Nato in order to save their face may opt for deferring the new membership for the next 20-30 years. This is a very interesting game theory stuff- and if you understand game theory then we will see a Zero sum game. Both Russia and Nato will gain something and lose something.

Let's hope for the best.

From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

With European countries and the US keeping a distance from the war, Russia understands that it will gain more from the diplomatical solution rather than war. So the solution can take its time...Ukraine is also giving mix signals...and US sounding alarms at war on 16th- If it doesn't happen tmrw then I think It won't happen at all. So let's wait for one day.

From: Oscillations Date: Mon, 14 Feb, 2022, 22:17
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,

Investors live in a very tough world- recently everybody agreed that rising US interest rates were not good for the stock market and now US yields are down and markets are crashing worldwide. And strangely it appears that investors don't know what they really want. That's why stock markets are the toughest place to make money. Stock market always has this view that there is always a world war coming. And Now even when the US is saying that they won't send troops to Ukraine; it doesn't believe them. 

So just when we were trying to solve the Fed interest rate puzzle, market has found another bomb. I don't really have much interest in politics/geo-politics but here I feel that chances of something bigger are less. There were risks for the same some time back (and the market was calm at that time) but now the US has clearly expressed that it has no plan for sending troops to Ukraine. Actually the US and Russia never fight directly- both understand that the same will be catastrophic for the entire human race, leave alone both. So they always fight indirectly through others- Afghanistan, Vietnam, Arab world etc. No war happened when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 (Russia is even stronger now). Perhaps, 2014 has forced Ukraine to partner Nato while for Russia it might be just show of power. I don't know what made Nato (US) to select Ukraine as a new member and what Ukraine was thinking. Because now Ukraine has understood clearly that no Nato country will send its troops to help them against Russia. Germany, France have no interest at all. Europe is terrified of their choked gas supply from Russia ( it is surprising to see the impact of old world Oil/gas still having so much bargain power. European countries like Germany were really fool to not to address this issue while running after renewables). So Ukraine might be thinking of its decision to go for Nato.

In fact, I feel that Nato countries don't want to follow the US narrative anymore- they sent their armies in Iran and Afghanistan (for US only) and now they  have nothing to show for that...they were literally humiliated. They looked like fools. So I don't think we will see any Europe country fighting russia; they won't even vote for Ukraine entry. Europe may not want an enemy in Russia. And perhaps Putin knows this and that's why he has taken calculative risk to announce the arrival of Russia. US I think is trying to hit Russia hard by instigating a war with Ukraine. After seeing no mood of Nato members to fight, US has also decided to stay away from this war but creating a noise and fear about Russia invasion. And this may disrupt Russian calculations because Russia has nothing to gain from Ukraine invasion as Ukraine is having much stronger army than 2014 and this would hit Russia hard and holding back invasion in a hostile country is not an option. So with Nato not supporting Ukraine with army, Russia has already got what it wanted- to make Ukraine understand the reality and Russian might in trade with Europe and domestic support for Putin with this power pack show. But US would love to see both of them fighting. Russia can do some small "Phuljhadi" but not an all out war with Ukraine. 

China may be watching with interest the US response to see what US can do for Taiwan. But Ukraine is no Taiwan- US needs Taiwan who is its biggest trading partner and the core of the US semiconductor industry. Ukraine is nothing in the world supply chain but Taiwan is an economic force and a very key strategic asset for China if it can capture it just like Russia is having big bargaining power with Gas. Infact, US leaving Ukraine can be a bad news for China because US must have left Ukraine as it want to focus on Indo-pacific (China) where it has created a new Quad with India, Aus and Japan. Russia is a spent and declining force and all it wants is just to show its might ( Russia is a poor fellow now and Poor can't rule others) but China has much bigger ambitions- as it wants to own territories and Sea. US don't really care for the poor Russia so it is better to keep Russia where they are. So last week Quad meet was a sort of warning to China- what US really wants.

So we will get to know soon what Russia actually wants.

( Contact at oscillationss@yahoo.in)