Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations (Part 2)

 Please Click here for earlier Post

Ukraine is still standing; not sure whether on one leg or two but the same is irrelevant in the face of great fighting spirit shown by Ukraine. This we can say is a fantastic fight back. When US and NATO declared that they won’t support Ukraine against Russia; Russia was smiling at that time at the pitifulness and helplessness of Ukraine and just like Russia everybody discounted them as a loser without any will left to fight. But these types of events are the reason that history books have something interesting to tell; these are the events where they don’t need historians to create (Read fabricate) a narrative to generate/justify/impose an alternate reality. It would be interesting to see how Russian history books would narrate (read downgrade) this tremendous fight back.

So as I have explained in the earlier post- Strong and prolonged resistance by Ukrainians have disrupted the Russian plans for regime change and now Russia has to reassess and recalculate the inflow matrix. Russia and Ukraine are going to have another round of talks today although just a week back Russia was not even picking their calls and it had no interest in talks. So it means Russia has lost because now it can only destroy Ukraine but can't win and that's why we are seeing them talking. The deal point at the talking table now is- Russia won't destroy Ukraine and in return it will take something from Ukraine and what Ukraine can give is a wild guess because I don't think Russia's sole purpose for war was not allowing Ukraine to join NATO. As I have shared earlier- I feel Russia doesn't want democracy near its borders and Putin wants to revive the USSR before he is gone from this world and he knows he is losing time. Putin wanted to make Russia a big economic power when he started in 1999, even wanted to Join NATO. But as of now we know Russia is still far from being a big economic power. Its exports are mainly natural resources (not high value added products). So there are more political aspects to the current quagmire than security aspects. Why did (what fear) small eastern European (earlier USSR members) countries join Nato? Whether NATO was really interested in Russian territory (NATO expansion card)? Whether Russia ever counted NATO as a big threat to its security and whether there is any doubt that NATO was on its death bead two months back so as to pose any real threat to Russia (now revived by Russia)? Anyone who feels there are real/genuine answers (Not just speculations) for these questions can understand that things are much more complex than a feeble NATO expansion Card being cited as a reason for this war. So as of now, I can't say that Russia was only worried about NATO expansion and we are not really sure what further destruction he can do (or he is already having plans). Putin has been successful in creating an image of an unpredictable fellow who can take irrational actions and that's why west is feeling a bit constrained in its reaction and planning to counter Putin. But I don't think that he is that irrational fellow because the same recklessness and irrationality is not on display in other spheres of his life and relations with other countries whether it is India or china; Putin has always taken rational decisions when it is with India or china so I think west has to plan their answers treating his as a rational fellow and then this bloody game is a great Game theory stuff- who will take what actions and strategies to counter the others. 

Russia is our greatest friend but that doesn't mean that friends can't make mistakes or dangerous miscalculations. However in geopolitics we don’t raise a finger towards the mistake of friends because most of those who want us to raise our finger also have bloody hands and nobody is interested in us and our security. Truth (Realty) is never linear and one dimensional. In a more logical world, Russia can't justify its invasion pointing out that the likes of USA have also done it many times. Russia said that Ukraine People are dying under Nazis and that they wanted to save them; but now they are the ones who are killing them and destroying their schools/hospitals/everything so that they can bring them to the table to have a deal to save their face. So Russia has done something which has weakened it (and India also) and I just hope that a more weakened Russia due to economic sanctions doesn't strengthen China too much. A weak Russia will find it tough to support India. So we can't really be certain in whose interest this war started- Ukraine, Russia or just Putin but one thing is looking certain that it will hit Indian interests and that's what matters the most for an Indian. Rest all becomes secondary in this weird and imperfect world. Pakistan who once was a fierce Russian enemy and the one responsible for their defeat in Afghanistan and then subsequent division of the USSR is now an ally of Russia. So Russia will ensure its interests before supporting India. The good thing is that India understands that It can't really count others in its fights; if anyone can join then good but India doesn't and can't really expect too much from others and that's why we are neutral and don't mess with the affairs of others.

So in a more logical world we can expect that as Russia really doesn't have anything to gain by winning or destroying Ukraine and costs and other economic, political and global implications are very harsh and hence we could expect both Russia and Ukraine to break a peace deal today or in near term...this is no brainer (in a logical world). But Putin has shown we can't really expect him to follow the logic- otherwise he doesn't have anything to justify the war/invasion. But still I really feel and hope that by now the ensuing Russian fall might have forced Putin to reassess, recalculate and recalibrate his much bigger and ambitious plans and we can expect some peace coming soon.

A big positive (feels good to talk about positives amid this catastrophe) I see after any such peace deal is that the World may witness a longer peace period. For a long time, I have been feeling that some big war may happen at any time in the world because there is too much negative energy buildup. We have countries like China who are ready to create nuisance all the time. We have too many conflicts everywhere. Everybody feels that they are strong enough to destroy the others...so the likes of China are doing nonsense everywhere in every possible way and world really was/is like a dangerous volcano waiting to erupt any time. But this war has shown the fragility of power and the strength of the weak. So people have seen the destruction they wanted to see for a long time and also understood the results that in today's world nobody is really that weak. The war has sort of released the pressurized energy and people should focus on peace. Hence I feel if both can find a peace deal then we may see the world becoming a peaceful place...in a sense that it has avoided a more serious, destructive and bigger war.

Although the likes of China may emerge stronger due to a weak Russia and they will try to create nuisance but I feel a silent Chinese decoupling from the global supply chain is already underway and then even China won’t be able to withstand economic sanctions if they try anything similar to Russian misadventure. But India will always be alone to fight China though the QUAD presents some hope because out of sheer foolishness China (most dictators are foolish or turned foolish over time) has created an enemy out of India and forced India to join hands with USA when China’s main adversary in realizing its global dreams (starting from Taiwan and South china sea) is USA not India. China doesn’t have any serious conflicts with India which can hit its economic or security considerations. India has even allowed China to get away with Tibetan occupancy. So India was always ready to achieve peace and that’s where China has miscalculated- to consider the peace willing fellow as weak. India is willing to flex its muscles now (Especially under Modi) and is not ready to accept any Gunda-gardi.

But we may see some dramatic realignments happening in the geopolitical arena in the next 2-3 years. Pakistan will destabilize and we may see it changing parties and the same may end at either loosing POK to India or closing a peace deal with India although before that India needs to oust China from POK and so we can see that India-China rivalry may take center stage and Pakistan will be just waiting in the corner and thus we have entered a period where Pakistan as an adversary is going out of the way. And that’s why this Russia Ukraine war is so important for India as this will also direct/impact Chinese strategy. China is predominately an export based economic power (with many challenges inside) and the people who earn money from others don’t fight with them. One reason the likes of USA who are big customers for many (They import big from everywhere) can wreak havoc by stopping/shifting their imports and as USA is the biggest trading partners for most of the world so it is very tough for anyone (like China) to ignore USA economic sanctions….USA is the biggest consumer in this world…a consumer with one very valuable commodity-Dollar. So India just needs to strengthen its economy and defence capabilities and creating strong allies and there may come a situation for India even to reassess its relations with Russia if the question is to counter China.

We will start investing again once some peace is emerging on the horizon...preferably next week

(oscillationss@yahoo.in)