Dear All, I have received many requests to share my views on the current war situation. These days I am sharing regular notes on War with my clients so I am sharing the same here. As I don’t have the time to edit so I am pasting these notes in time-stamped mode- I will share the Notes along with the time details (Time/date when I shared those with my clients, most recent post first). I will try to post more relevant older posts in the future.
24th Mar, 11:30 PM IST
Dear All, now, I am guessing what Modi Ji has talked with trump. I think it should be about buying more oil from Russia. Middle east and Iran are trying to charge huge premium from India but here I think India should use the sheer power of our consumption/demand of oil. We need to threaten them that if India is forced to re-route its oil requirement from elsewhere then the same won’t return back to these countries. And I hope our diplomats like Jaishankar ji are very smart guys and they should be doing all this.
India suffered big from US sanctions due to Russia oil but India did not leave Russia; now is the time for Russia to come and help India and that’s why I shared earlier that now is the time to see how Russia is behaving in offering crude at normal or way high prices. Recently, India bought some 30 million barrels of crude which was roughly all the available Russian crude in Asian waters.
Unlike Ukraine war, where oil supply was hit due to sanctions but there was no physical blockage/shortage so at that time re-routing of oil helped in keeping the prices low. Now it is different with supply chain blocked and physical infra destroyed which means it will take some time but it will come back. Iran is selling oil to China through same Hormuz and Saudis are using red sea route so that has taken care of some of the turmoil.
And if we go by the oil prices in Futures market then it seems they are pricing the moderate chances of opening of Hormuz or other resolutions. There are always insiders everywhere and they are the reasons people make life time fortunes in stocks and commodities. Last day also, there was a mysterious big spike in volumes in oil futures and S&P 500 just 15 minutes before Trump announcement. So, this is no coincidence and we can have a clue from oil prices. Today I was expecting a big jump in Crude but it was settled at 4%.
Then, India is buying Venezuela oil now and even today India has bought major chunk from them. I don’t know why there is no talk about it yet- how much is coming and at what cost. India is one of the few globally to have the refineries to process their heavy crude.
I am also assessing the situation in case the war ends with lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and that oil comes to the market. If we can see US will be in a critical situation in controlling the oil supply globally and you people can easily understand that that oil will be priced in BRICS’ favourite Petrodollar!!! And with it, you all can understand the real US game in saving dollar and their economy and their global power. So Dollar is the asset to buy now and that’s why I am sharing all the time that now is not the time for Gold. And we can see also why India may fit big time into US oil schema as we are the biggest customer.
Hopefully, things are looking under control. I am guessing a lot of secret deals.
(Good news is that the countries across the globe has now realised their mistake and all have come together to arrange one NOBEL for Trump. Another secret deal doing the rounds is that since Pakistan is mediating so Trump will nominate Asif Munir for Nobel and later on Munir will hand over the same to Trump saying it was Trump's Idea. I think these are much better plans.)
24th Mar, 09:00 PM IST
Dear All Today Modi ji addressed and going by his speech I think we will see some action on oil prices soon...tmrw may be. Market may be quite volatile although i think all this has already been priced in.
If we can see the oil scenario now, the likes of Canada, Russia are the biggest winner. US is also not losing anything. Israel and Gulf nations have bigger stakes in Iran regime change, they will get huge benefits. But even bigger casualty is BRICS and their currency plans which was pure nonsense…as i am sharing from time to time...this Gold buying spree was sort of nonsense. How can India china with so much enmity and mistrust can be partners in new currency...that too primarily linked with Yuan.
I always felt that if India was really getting involved in any such new BRICS currency plans that would be a mistake. If we can see, all this action by Trump is to show BRICS its real place...a block of mostly pariah states. How can these pariah states can be trusted like Dollar? So i have no doubt that Trump wanted to hit BRICS badly...BRICS even included IRAN last year. I am sure message was given to Modi Ji before war and Russia is now trying to make India think. What all this BRICS bonhomie has really produced- Dollar rising big time again. They wanted to hit dollar but Trump has hit their economies hard. If this war goes longer and Oil prices stay high then our GDP growth is hit and looks like market will get this msg tmrw.
Gold looks like getting ready for a big hit...i have warned many times earlier that at these prices Gold is more like a risky stock. But i want to really see now how Russia will be coming to help India by not charging big for oil. Elections are coming this year and any spike in inflation means BJP will be gone. The anti BJP elements will try to spread as much misinformation as possible and we can see external factors getting involved to destabilise India. So tough time for Modi ji but i think they will be able to find a solution. First, this is not their fault as the likes of Israel and GCC always wanted to hit Iran; although for different reasons. India has really done good work in the middle east under Modi government and I think UAE is one such relationship which will endure and stick for a long time. Saudis has already picked Pakistan.
Now is the time for those so-called great Indian analysts who were/are cheering Iran win to see the impact of Iran’s actions on Hormuz. Only a fool can justify those actions especially when those are going to hit India hard. But amid all this, the attempts to end this war are going on. Pakistan is in difficult state so they are trying to mediate to stop this war because very soon we will see UAE/Saudis going to war with Iran and Pakistan has treaty with Saudis. US has also taken Pakistan name as a nuclear threat which is a message to them to either join the war or face consequences. Modi ji have talked to both Iran PM and Trump today. So I think message to Iran will be clear- either agree or face entire middle east and may be Europe and I think the same message was given to Putin yesterday and Putin for the sake of Ukraine may be trying to get Iran into agreement. So still quite a number of options and hopefully we will see something good.
One thing which i am sharing from time to time is that global markets are not worried abt this war and how much time it would take. Just see Ukraine war- after initial reaction markets never bothered abt them and they are like doing their war at some other planet. so just like Ukraine war, the issue now is oil prices. If they are able to find a solution for that then everything will be normal. That's why Trump has sort of given the task to end this war on countries feeling the heat of this oil choke- GCC, Pakistan, Europe and even India. Iran wanted to use this oil choke as startegic advantage (which is well known to all in advance) and now trump is trying to to reverse that by making other countries to challenge Iran.
24th Mar, 05:00 PM IST
Dear All, one thing which I forgot to address is the last day call between Trump and Putin. Right now, a large number of different combinations are being tried. It is for sure that US wanted Russia to do something in this war for them in exchange for something in Ukraine. It is for sure that US under trump is trying to take Russia in their side- but these attempts are never absolute and they are always ready for a parallel opposite arrangement also.
Many people believe that this war is good for Russia from a strategic point of view because now west will be trapped in this war for a long time and Russia will be able to handle Ukraine well. But I don’t think so- This war is beneficial for Russia economically…there is no doubt that Russia will make billions from oil. But strategically this can be very dangerous- because in case US is able to hit iran and bring regime change or make it weaken and unstable then this will be a huge loss for Russia. Iran is a big partner for Russia in countering the western/American hold on global power. These anti west nations are called CRINK-China, Iran, Russia and our beloved KIM Bhaiya (North Korea). So this war is not with some 3rd party but an ally of Russia. Together these countries were able to bypass all western sanctions and everything else. So I don’t think Russia is that happy at this war. USA is looking like starting its long-term strategy to enforce their power and control globally which is not good for Russia at this point. Cuba is already the next target- another China asset which will be taken away from them by USA.
So, I think Russia will be more interested in the closure of this war at this stage. Russia may be ready for Iran to get something give something. But I am not sure what was the msg to Trump from Putin but I think both will try to negotiate. If I am Russia then I know my bigger focus and interest is Ukraine war and if US is ready to give me something for that then I should try to end this war by giving something to USA.
We are seeing India Russia having more talks and they are all about oil. US tried to get India to their terms by buying lesser oil from Russia off late but now the situation is that India is trapped now and Russia also stopped discount on Oil. So, we may see discount coming back and something bigger.
Modi ji went to Israel just 2 days before the war so there is no doubt that he was told about the war. These things are never shared over phone. So, something is happening behind the scene where India is having a bigger role. Before that visit, UAE president visited India for 2 hours in jan-2026. All these are not coincidences and routine matters. India was/is never an important player in global geopolitics as our stake was/is mainly about Pakistan. But this government has started taking some decisive actions and even started picking sides.
Will share more.
24th Mar, 01:30 PM IST
Dear All, the phase of uncertainty for MARKET is going on…and also for our great analysts who really think that in geopolitics surficial data is the reality. For them, Trump has made unilateral ceasefire out of fear. But when powerful people want to retreat then they don’t do the same in a way market thinks Trump is doing. If Trump is really fearing of Iranian might and wants a backdoor retreat then he will simply close the war saying we have achieved our objectives of hitting their military infrastructure.
Right now, there are talks going on for real. And I have also shared earlier that there is a high possibility of some secret talks with alternate people…people of choice for US even in IRGC. GCC nations like Saudi and UAE are the ones trying hard for this deal otherwise they will join the war…they must have given this message to Iran. If deal fails then they will join the war. Trump has given them 5 days to make a deal. People may not like him (I am also against him if he is working against India) and one reason people are spreading useless news that he is losing the war etc.
Many people are sharing large number of news/videos about experts saying Trump is losing this war and Iran has surprised. So we are being told that Iran is winning and will take call from point of strength. This is the biggest joke I have heard of late. We are being shown Iran missiles/Drones hitting Middle east/Israel (mostly on uncertain targets) and people just clap. No videos are there from Iran because internet is blocked and our great analysts believe that nothing is hitting Iran!!
Iran was always supposed to withstand this war for 30-40 even 50-60 days because they have the army/weapons and money plus they don’t care much about its people getting killed. So, these same people who are declaring Iran winning just because it has survived 20 days have also declared Russia a winner against Ukraine even when Ukraine has endured the war for 5 years now!!! They shout big that Russia has killed the west; what a man and revolution. But I am always worried about the equation taking place for Russia who might have become weak and stretched…and USA may use this opportunity. Indian people need to understand that against China Russia may not help India.
Israel has always helped India even when India didn’t recognize it. Israel went against its friend USA and supported India in all wars against Pakistan when USA was against India. Under Modi this relation with Israel has only strengthened with India buying and selling weapons to Israel being used in Hamas war. Indian stakes are way high in GCC nations where we have entered huge trade deals and millions of people working there. So, we can see easily Indian govt has chosen the side of US/Israel and is now criticizing Iran openly for Hormuz blockade. But it is shocking these stupid Indian analysts supporting a terrorist nation like Iran. India has to take similar actions against Pakistan…we have taken already most recently in operation Sindoor.
Khamenei was supported by CIA for coming into power in Iran but later on he turned out to be a Shia islamist hardliner and he even went against US interests in Oil. And US followed with sanctions. So, all this mess was created by all of them…not because of some general good but only for bloody power where they just killed people in Iran every year. US helped Khamenei so they had the right to demand obligations, Khamenei promised and then backstabbed. So, If we really want to be objective here then just see what most Iranian want and they all want the end of Regime.
So, no Iran is winning this war- because this is not a drama movie. And hence no catastrophe will happen…these are just short time disturbance. Further, there are people in Iran who understands that best way to win this war is to agree to US demands and survive their regime. I think Trump must have given Israel and its army the timeline for ending war by which they need to hit Iran hard…and after that Trump will close the war. If regime survives still the objective is achieved- A weak, unstable and poor Islamic regime…and US/Israel will continue to act against them and will come again. But most probably we will see something big happening soon.
23rd Mar, 04:30 PM IST
Dear All, today markets have fallen due to the threat of Iran to hit oil fields across the middle east if US attacks their energy sources because trump has given 48 hours ultimatum. Now again people across the world (include great Indian journalists) are ridiculing Trump because Iran has issued counter warning and people are saying Iran is treating US/Trump as shit. But this happen when so called greatest geopoliticians don’t understand the real war games…when they think that a US president can really be that fool. People think that US is losing war and Iran is hitting them like anything…but still Trump has the power to issue a warning? Whether entire US army is that foolish…they are losing a war and instead of finding a way to de-escalate and looking for a way out they are issuing warnings?
Why Trump is issuing this ultimatum- US is not dependent on Oil imports, infact they are the biggest exporter right now. But Trump knows that China, Europe needed all this oil from middle east. So if US hits Iran Oil and then Iran hits Gulf oil reserves who will be the biggest loser? It is not US but China, Europe and middle east nations. So, Trump has increased their stakes significantly…he is giving them a message- either join him in this decisive war at the front or pay the price. But he is not ready to let people have free lunch. China will be devastated…and I think their tone has mellowed now. They are not talking abt Taiwan attack.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte defended Trump's military action in Iran and even praised his leadership. Few days back these people were criticizing Trump and were not ready to join him. Last day Iran showed it has long range ballistic missiles by attacking Diego Garcia which is some 4000 km away. It means Europe is in the firing line of Iran.
Similarly, gulf guys were not ready to attack Iran but now with this threat from trump they are not left with any choice. They need to take a call now.
Given a chance, india would have tried to not let Pakistan having Nuclear weapons. Similarly, I don’t think nuclear in the hands of unstable and radical nations like Iran is good. Iran earlier said that they don’t have long range missiles but last year in Oct-25 they said they were renouncing their commitments to that and now all of a sudden in few months they have long range missiles. All this mess in Iran is the result of so much of radical nonsense in the past where even US/UK also played their part in so many coups. So this is their mess and they are dealing with it…We Indians have no locus standi to take a stand against US. If trump can really end Iran and its proxies then the world may be a better place…at least for now.
Now what- in my view Trump has these things in Mind behind his 48 hour ultimatum. He wants to end free lunch to all these parties. So, I think we will see some decisive moves now…in these 24 hours. The collective response from all these actors will be too much for Iran to deal with. We can understand that a lot of deals are being tried behind the scenes. With this one Move, trump has made all to run and take a firm stand. So I think finally we are nearing something big and decisive. Let’s see if I am right in my prediction.
I am trying to assess the situation and will be sharing…next 24 hours make or break. And my bet is on Make.
20th March, 01:00 PM IST
Dear All, as i am sharing from time to time, I have no doubt that US plan is to hit China out of the middle east. Israel is more focused on regime change in Iran. So I don’t think they are out of the track...Iran always have the capability to hit back but that capability is more about choking oil....the other damage caused by Iran is not that big. China will try hard to counter US/Israel so we will see some more fireworks. US wants the control of Iranian oil so US won’t allow oil to be hit...or US might allow Israel to hit oil in Iran so that Iran hit the oil fields of Gulf nations and then they won’t have any choice but to enter war with US.
So it is a chess board game and US will try many such moves...I think Trump knows very well what he is doing. As i am sharing from time to time, this is not about who is good and who is bad...ethics or larger good is never the reason or viewpoint to see a war. You ask Iranian people and most are against the current regime and if we are based on that then US/Israel are doing good. But they are not doing that for Iranian people so the focus is something else. US is not our friend but China is our biggest enemy so a weakened China is great news for India. I dont believe a strong Iran with current regime is good for India...very dangerous. China at the point of strength will deal tough with India.
You know who is the biggest winner of this war- not gold or silver but DOLLAR. Gold/silver are falling which is quite the opposite most people were thinking. This is how the world of investment behaves. There are also chances that investors are selling gold to buy cheaper equities. But demand for dollar as safer asset is rising big. Rising gas price means US gas companies will mint huge money. I have shared about the risks of Gold and BRICS trying some adventures in dec.
Some people are still shouting of a world war coming but it is not happening. just look at the globe...there are no definite sides/group...two groups having aligned objectives/targets to fight with the other group. No such two groups exist right now...so no world war. China will try to show some drama around Taiwan...but unfortunately US knows that china can't attack it...North Korea will do some dancing but deep down even they know that a free US (from middle east) will eye uniting North and South korea.
6th March (Motive behind this war):
Dear All, there are many media reports especially from Indian analysts narrating that this US Iran war is not good for India and India will be in a very dangerous position. The crux of their analysis is that a weakened and disintegrated Iran will rely more on China and even Pakistan and that will hit India hard. Many analysts I know have also shared the same view along with oil supply issues and they are predicting Indian market falling more because of this. But I really hope that our market may be able to understand the reality and ignore this view. Let me share.
a) Current situation- First, let’s try to see what is the situation before this war. Last year US and Israel hit and destroyed most of the Iran’s nuclear sites plus their drone manufacturing units along with many of the top commanders from IRGC. So, they have already eliminated their main worry. So, the question is what is left for them to be so eager for a strike now? One thing we know- It is not Nuclear.
b) Objective behind war- If US Israel are taking this much risk in attacking Iran then there must be some bigger purpose. Iran is not a torn, destabilized and disoriented country, they have very credible army and sophisticated military equipment capable of inflicting significant damage. Plus Iran has very dangerous proxy network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen which enables it to open multi front war encircling Israel and Middle east countries. So, we know that in case of a war Iran will hit you hard. But then why US and Israel and their GCC allies are taking so much pain for this war?
If we read these analysts, they are of the view that US/Israel want to hit Iran hard, they wanted to eliminate Khamenei and IRGC top tier and also to inflict big damage to Islamic regime. But what US will get out of this show of power by spending huge resources and taking risks and also seeing the destruction in their own backyard? Why US/Israel will just be happy in seeing some fireworks in Iran and then they will pack their bags? Why US/Israel will leave Iran further weakened and destabilized when they know this will only enable China Russia to make more inroads into Iran and become more critical for its existence and survival? Do you think US/Israel are that fool to not visualize and envisage this?
c) as I am sharing from time to time- this war and most of other wars have no motive for larger good. It is all about protecting your interest or limiting your enemy/competitor. So we need to understand this war from the point of view of US/Israel considering them as rational strategic players not some dramatic fools. Trump is a risk taking guy; the one with very deep understanding of Game theory. He knows how to act, portray, pose and behave to make people uneasy and forcing them to be in their safety. He poses like a Mad man but that’s only to make people ready to renounce and negotiate. As he is pushing India quite a bit so he is not our friend but he deserves some credit for trying to take US forward.
But forward against what and where?
d) If we see Iran- it is a proxy of China (or an asset of China). An Asset because China has invested quite a bit of effort and resources in it. China buys around 90% of Iran Oil at big discounts (secretly from the eyes of US) and then Iran buys all and everything from China- tech and equipment. Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are the ones behind most of Iran’s telecommunications infrastructure. Then China has provided Iran’s camera network (AI enabled), then its Internet is based on Chinese tech. So we can understand with these tech infra China really controls the tech part of Iran.
So Iran means China.
e) Now then, what is Iran for others in the GCC- It is a headache because it behaves like a mafia don. It has terrorist proxies Hizballah, Hamas, Houtis. It is a nuisance for them and China provides them the leverage to control Iran. So GCC countries feel grateful to China to control Iran and they are happily giving huge contracts to China and China has been able to penetrate big in GCC countries and building their ports, railways, 5G networks. And Voila! China has become indispensable for them and dominate player in middle east which is the global energy source.
So what is Iran for China- it is an asset not an ally like US has Japan or South Korea. Many people are shouting that why China is not helping Iran. Because it is not an ally of China; it is an asset and an asset is always used for strategy. China will never take the risk of fighting with US for Iran or Venezuela.
f) US knows all this- that China is happy to see US consuming time and resources to contain all the mess created by Iran. Here, I am not talking about Iran being good to India or our friend. Iran has always supported Pakistan in case of Kashmir. Above all this it is an asset of China. It is CHINA. US understands pretty well that a weakened and unstable Iran will be more dangerous for its foreign policy because it will give more control of China over it.
g) Russia- Russia got drones from Iran against Ukraine war when it was facing tough times from Turkish Drones. But it paid Iran for that- it was a trade. Iran needed those dollars…billions may be. Then Russia has a pact with Israel for no-attack. Further, trump is supporting the cause of Russia in Ukraine war. Trump is helping Russia by enforcing their terms for negotiations. So Russia will stay out of this war. Russia needs global recognition and wants to be accepted in the global circles as a responsible and great power which Trump is ready to give them.
h) It is all about China- So we can understand that US knows who is the major beneficiary of a weakened Iran upto now and in the future also. So in my view, both Israel and US won’t leave the task midway this time. Israel has weakened the proxies of Iran (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) in the last 2 years or so. Hence they know that they have the best time to eliminate Islamic rule in Iran. So in my view, we will see US/Israel not stopping before regime change or something similar. And I think there must be some sort of secret deal placed somewhere.
(Disclaimer: The above study is purely an educational content and is only for learning purposes. The Writer is a SEBI Registered Investment advisor (SEBI IA registration Number INA000020244). The above study is based on personal opinions and analysis. Please do not consider this study as an investment advice and do your due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before investing. The content writer shall not be held responsible for any profits or losses incurred as a result of investment decisions made by the readers based on the shared content).
Thanks for Sharing your views. I hope the war will end soon and things will get normalised.
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