Dear All, I am regularly receiving messages to share my views on Ukraine-Russia war. First of all I am extremely sorry for not being able to post updates/studies on this blog for a long time. Actually I am working on something related to stock analysis/advisory work and hence not getting time for posting the studies as of now. But I will start the same shortly.
About the war- I am sharing my messages on this which I am regularly sharing with the newsletter club of this blog. Please note that I am not a war or geopolitics expert and my views are constrained/limited to my very limited knowledge of the subject. Still as the issue was related to our stock Investments so I have shared my views and we will take the investment calls accordingly. So please ignore my views if you find them inaccurate/illogical (or funny). Ever since the war has been started by Putin I have been feeling that although Russia looks perfect to win the War but some of its calculations- like easy and fast win without much of Ukraine fight back, less harsh economic sanctions as it has some European countries to support it and their reliance on Russian oil/Gas may not happen as per their calculations and we may see some unexpected and unwanted surprises. So I still feel that Russian mis-calculations can lead this war into something very catastrophic and that’s why even though Russia is our friend I am not supporting this war (As Russia could have easily avoided the war and still emerged victorious achieving objectives). A stronger China emerging from this war is not good for India. The need is to see this war from Indian, Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar.
From: Oscillations Date: Sat, 26 Feb, 2022, 13:03
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
Surprisingly Kyiv is still
standing and Ukraine is giving a very tough fight. Their president is acting
brave and he is in Kyiv and leading from the front and even refused US help to
evacuate. Ukrainian people are also ready for right. This man was supposed to
act like a comedian ( he was a comedian before) but now he is some sort of a
global hero...and wars are fought on these emotions and motivations. Ukraine
was supposed to surrender on the first day but they still are giving a bloody
fight. This man made a mistake earlier for not strengthening borders earlier
when Russians were at the door...but at that time he was sort of assured of
NATO and US support.
Ukraine never supported India at
UN/kashmir...sold arms to Pakistan. As Russia is our partner and a time tested friend in tough times so India should not Vote against Russia now and should keep a neutral view. But we just hope that their miscalculations shall not hit our interests. Like more than a Russian win India should be more concerned about stronger China emerging out of this war as a reliable Russian partner and china will try madly to replicate Russian style invasions in India and other countries and Russia will support them even if they are against India. So I believe India must have or still been trying to make Russia accept peace. So the need is to see this war from Indian (indirectly not any direct action though), Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar. One linear perspective is never absolute. India needs to see this fight from its own perspective first- how it will
affect India from Russian angle/actions and that's why this war is not good
for India...if Russia wins it is Bad but if it loses then the worst...along
with a chance of a world war any time, India getting hard pressed to choose
Russia or others, India getting involved in senseless and dangerous cold war
for a long time, pakistan and China becoming stronger especially when a weak
Russia needs their support for its economy.
The earlier Narrative that Russia
is doing this to counter Nato efforts does not look credible at all. Russia was
supposed to hit and weaken Nato but Nato was a dying alliance before this war
and present russian actions has in fact reignited the alliance and EU is now
following and buying the US narrative of Russian danger. I don't think that
Putin was such a fool to not understand this...that nato will get alert and
will strengthen themselves and their security and expansion. Still he chose the
war and this is what worries me of his true intentions. I feel US and NATO announced earlier not to send armies in order to stop Russia from launching a war...their involvement means sure shot world war so in spite of public humiliation it looks like they have tried to avoid the global war. At that time, Russia was also having an opportunity to leave war plans on a high claiming a win which would have still served its objectives. But sadly for unknown reasons he chose the opposite.
Russia missed the opportunity on
the first day when Ukraine was not ready for the assault. I think attacking from
3-4 positions/sides may be one reason. Russia is still an expected winner but
it has a very bloody nose with large no. of casualties and if the number rises
further then this will be sort of a humiliation for the very strong Russian
army. This has given time to Ukraine to get their act and supplies together and
get arms from other countries and now things will be more dangerous for Russia.
The Russian supply chain is not doing good and it is an old weakness...so there
are tanks and vehicles left without fuel...their soldiers are asking for food
from local people. Most are just kids (18-20 years) pushed/forced into war.
They are crying after they are captured.
The Ukrainian people are all
ready for a fight. Quite the opposite of what Russia was thinking or declaring.
Russia/Putin said that Nazis are ruling Ukraine and Ukraine people will cheer
and embrace Russian army...to see themselves getting liberated. So much
disillusion and histeria if Putin really believed in it or was made to believe!!
But this hasn't happened at all and Ukraine's president is now a global Hero
and if there was even a small contribution of this illusion in their motive
behind the attack then Russia will be in some very difficult time.
We can assume that Russia will
now become more deadly but the time lost has given Ukraine much time to regroup
and also given fire to the protests in Russia which is very bad. Surprise
attack element and quick capture of Kyiv and dislodging of the Govt was the key
which didn't happen at all as per expectations. Russia is hitting civilian
targets although Russia was supposed to liberate these people earlier who as
per its understanding were living under hell. But there are nobody in local
buildings anymore...they were supposed to be in there on the first day of the
surprise attack and subsequent expected control of Ukraine...which never
happened as per calculations. This is why war calculations are always wrong...
because they are mostly based on underestimating the opponent and
over-estimating themselves.
There are numerous examples in
Vietnam, Afghanistan that the will/motivation to fight for freedom is more
important (for a win) than a strong army and great high tech arms. Even if the
invader succeeds in placing a puppet government the same never succeeds in
controlling/running and it always needs support from the invader and is always
ousted by local people whenever they get stronger. That's why the Russian
puppet govt if they can install one stands no chance and perhaps Russia does or
will realise this. Economic sanctions will hit Russia very hard in spite of whatever plans they are having to counter it. SWIFT ban if happen will be very bad for its economy. I hope that effectiveness of these sanctions may deter China from invading Taiwan but they will intimidate India and chances are very less that any West/US country will come for our help. So a stronger China (Most probably in case of a Russian Win) may chose first to target India than Taiwan.
Russian real win was a win without much opposition and blood bath…that Ukrainian people/other countries don't have any reaction time and govt/regime is changed in Ukraine...but this is not what is exactly happening. Russia have to inflict a lot of damage to Ukraine infrastructure and general public. And so their win isn't going to be that effective...the destruction they have inflicted is not what a supporter does and Russia was posing like the one to their people. The initial plan was perfect to change the regime without people understanding much but with destruction the narrative and scenario has completely changed for Russia...and that's why chances of any misstep by Russia are higher now. All Russian calculations about getting less harsher sanctions or global outcry or its oil/gas bargain over EU was dependent upon quick capture of Ukraine but as it has not happened so all calculations are going wrong. Russia must have calculated EU countries like Germany/Italy/France supporting less harsher sanctions (like SWIFT ban) and caring for Oil/Gas supply from Russia but the delay and destruction will force these countries to change their stance and actions. I think these countries earlier supported Russia thinking that Russia will not wage a war after Ukraine agreeing to its demands for not joining Nato but now with so much destruction and fear of a global war these countries will see things differently and may make things very hard for Russia as far as Sanctions/Oil Gas import/Helping Ukraine are concerned.So Russia may be in some very tough times.
About NATO enlargement Issue- So far I have refrained from touching this topic as my knowledge in this respect is very limited. I don't like reading political documents/history at all. But still i feel if there was any such assurance then where is the document? Actually here are disagreements among scholars and is highly debatable but the then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had also confirmed that the Nato expansion topic was never raised. In fact, Russia also (including Putin) wanted to join Nato in 1990s and 2000s. But I feel in case such assurance was indeed given to Russia then they would have wanted to get the same in writing. However, I don’t think that there is any such written assurance available. Further, NATO is a formal alliance of countries/members with written rules so unless all members give their consent for any issue I don't think anyone from NATO can give such non-expansion assurance and there is no such written formal documents from NATO members also. So we can’t say what was promised and what not. But there is one written document between Russia and Nato- NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997 an agreement on mutual relations, cooperation and security and that NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. But there is no mention of any such Nato expansion stoppage (as far as I can see after a hurried glance at such a boring political document). NATO-Russia Council was also founded in 2002. Nato expanded in 2000s and if there was any such non-expansion assurance then the same would have been invoked by Russia at that time. I feel at that time, Russia was more concerned about leaving Russia out of the crucial decisions (I think like Serbia/Kosovo) but Russia was never worried that Nato was a threat to it. Also, if both take actions where they pose that they are a danger to each other then it is natural that both would take actions to enhance security (by alliances also) and so in this regard we can’t say that Nato alone is responsible for creating such threat.So common sense says that both Nato and Russia need to sit peacefully and try to find a final solution for the betterment of humanity. We are tired of this nonsense mess.
Russia does have a strong army
but I think they may not be having relevant ground war experience and this is
why they are not successful in capturing the territory...they are doing deadly
air/missile attacks but not on the ground. They tried to took one airport near
Kyiv (Hostomel) but met with heavy Ukraine attack and destruction. This may be their
hurried effort or lack of planning I don't know but their ground work
capabilities are not looking good.
Just like most Indians, I also like our Friend Russia and Putin...Russia still plays our songs (They are crazy for Mithun/Bappi da song "Jimmy Jimmy" from Disco dancer movie and you can still see them using/enjoying this song in their shows/remixes...I have so many russian versions with me and they are just fantastic). One version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P09ow9sY6Y
(Just see the passion, joy and energy). That's why I am very concerned about Russia doing anything costly.
Still hoping for an end to this
nonsense war and peace prevailing and praying that this war does not turn into
something catastrophic.
Regards
Gurpreet singh
From: Oscillations Date: Fri, 25 Feb, 2022, 20:02
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
I got some msgs as to why I don't
support this Russian invasion even though I am saying that Russia is our
friend. Actually let me tell you one thing- Ukraine joining the Nato narrative
is given by Russia for the attack but I have a feeling that Russia is using
this as a pretext...it was going to invade anyhow. Putin always wanted to merge
Ukraine into Russia as it never recognized its independence and one valid
reason for Ukraine to tilt towards the west. Putin is looking to have much
bigger ambitions and he has taken the gamble now thinking US is tired and weak
after the Afghan meltdown...but my worry is that his madness can turn this war
into world war any time and this is the big risk for this small victory...and
the reason I don't support this move. So i feel that this Ukraine joining Nato
narrative is just on the surface...it is for bacha party...Putin might be
having much sinister plans or ambitions to make Russia a big power again.
But this may cost Russia dearly and when I say this I am not talking about
their defeat in Ukraine but over a much longer period. EU and US will see the
re-ignition of Russia threat and whole world will be dragged into a nonsense
cold war and a potential world war at any time. And India will face some very
tough and complex scenarios- it won't be able to decide whether it needs strong
Russia or weak Russia. And that's why time has come for India to upgrade its
defence manufacturing and luckily they are trying to focus on that.
Actually earlier Russia was a
counter balance for India to US support to pakistan so Russia had a big role in
our strategy. But time has changed now- US is no longer an adversary but a
potential big partner and Pakistan is going to be dead on its own on one fine
day. India's most decisive and existential fight now is with China against
which Russia may not help much. Russia now is also building ties with Pakistan.
As they say in geopolitics- there are no permanent friends but permanent
interests. I still want a stronger and wise Russia as they have supported us
during tough times and they understand the evil designs of China. So still hope
that better sense prevails and war ends soon and the Nato Narrative is real.
So I only hope that this war ends
in the manner everybody is expecting- Russia wins and controls Ukraine...but
destiny has the reserved right for the unexpected.
From: Oscillations Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
I hope you all are in fine shape
as far as market mood is concerned. I hope nobody has done panic sale. Last day
reaction from Indian market was way over-reaction as we were the biggest loser.
Last day got many msgs from Indian brokers and many have advised selling after
last day's fall...members/friends asked my opinion on the same and I told them
that It (brokerages’ decision to sell) was a bit ill-timed and shared with them
that we are not selling. Nobody was anticipating that Russia will do this step
as Ukraine and Nato was ready for a talk as EU was not in favor of a conflict
with Russia. So it was a sort of shock for the market but i think Putin gave a
clear war signal last week when he said in anger that Ukraine was doing
genocide. But I was not expecting this much fall/reaction from Indian market as
long as there is any sign from US and Nato to engage directly as they have
already shared that they won't fight directly. Many from US called me when US
market was down but I told them to wait for Biden's message and if he was not
engaging directly then there is nothing to worry ( As of now).
Ukraine is doing a fine job and
they have given a strong resistance...which nobody was expecting. Russia has
suffered heavy damage...Ukraine MOD says that 800 russian army are killed which
is a big number if it is true. Last night some reports were for 3200. Ukrainian
are taking back the posts captured by Russian army and this is going to be the
order for quite some time as long as Kyiv is standing. Sanctions are going to
hit Russian very hard and If EU agrees on SWIFT removal then Russia will be in
a very big trouble though the likes of Germany/Italy are opposing ( Still
sanctions on Russian banks are a very big blow). Quite surprisingly, Russian
people are on the street opposing russian invasion and as number of Russian
causalities grow, the situation can get worst any time in Russia. In fact, last
night I was really thinking that Russia may see another division in the next
few years even though they want to annex Ukraine. 5-10 years are a big chunk of
the life of an individual but for a country's journey 20 years are also a small
number. Countries plan for 20 years strategies. So Ukraine needs to create a
noise around Russian causalities as Russia will not disclose this number and
economic sanctions will hit the morale of Russian population and this can
create serious riot like situations. I am sure the likes of US/EU are
contemplating this.
If US can force EU to leave
Russian Oil/Gas then the US will be very happy. China looks like a winner but
it is mainly about US response for any future Taiwan invasion and China has to
take a big risk in assuming that US will not react. Putin I still feel acted
more like a Gambler, to show Nato/US its power but he has already achieved the
same without war. last day, Biden was smiling during address...people told me
that he was looking confused but I did not feel like that. There are stories of
valor of Ukrainian soldiers (like 13 soldiers in snake island) which will
inspire Ukraine to fight tough, Russian soldiers are not looking in good shape,
Ukraine president is still in Ukraine...so very tough fight. Today is the
DAY...if Ukraine can survive today then Russia will be in BIG trouble. I
expected Russia to be smart as we (India) need a strong Russia...I still feel
that some of the Russian calculations may go for a big toss. A strong Russia
may not help India against China but a weak Russia is good for China (although
Russia gave India S-400 in spite of heavy Chinese opposition). So let's hope and
Pray for Ukrainian people.
From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 21:11
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Everybody knows that Ukraine army
is no match to Russia and that's what Russia has taken into its calculations.
But they are much bigger now than 2014 and they will make Russia to pay a
price. They can give them a bloody nose. Everybody knows that Ukraine can't win
but the thing is the damage calculations may go wrong and by damage i mean all
sorts of damage- economically. Russia might have calculated OIL/Gas as bargain
but EU will act differently. They will bear the cost of high gas and give
subsidy to its people (and still the cost will be lesser than a Russian
threat)...Everybody feels that US will ignore Russia as it wants to target China
but this is where the things can turn speculative as US may choose the other
and US has every logic to choose the Russia along with China at a same time.
Russia has done the same thing- it has tried to pose as a Madman and
unpredictable ( this is what Putin portrays himself...that he can do anything
and he is unpredictable). Russia can't think that It can achieve everything
easily. Earlier Russia was hiding the death of Russian soldiers in separatists
parts as death of separatists but now they have declared an armed
conflict...and Russian people won't like the dead bodies of their soldiers
coming in heap. The surprise is not about that Ukraine can win but Russia may
have to pay much bigger price then it must have calculated. I am also hoping
that as expected Ukraine will surrender in two days and as Putin has said that
he has no intention to Occupy Ukraine so all ends in lowest possible damage.
But my worry is that there may be some nasty surprise. And weak Russia (I hope
they are not Mad Russia) is not good (at least for India)...a multi-polar world
is needed not uni-polar (US) or Bio-polar (With nonsense China as the other).
Regards
From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 20:09
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
So Russia has finally opted for
the ultimate and war has begun. But I still feel that Russia may be in for some
big shock...although Russia feels that they have done all the calculations but
there is never a perfect plan. Perfection is the right, domain and capability
of the Almighty. Who is right and who is wrong is always the most complex thing
in this world- Still, as I have shared earlier I think Russia has the right to
protect itself from west/Nato missiles placed in Ukraine borders against Russia
just like US had during the Cuban missile crisis. Russia sees Ukraine as
extremely crucial for their survival against western attacks. The
mode of ensuring the same by Russia is debatable but the world is never a
perfect place. Some Indian newspapers/scholars are asking India to take a firm
stand...and preferably against Russia in this issue. I am surprised to see
this, by not condemning the Russian attack India has already announced its
stand. Then, India needs a Strong Russia and I don't think that Russia will
ever discount or denounce India. India is a rising power...and a very credible
and ethical partner/power so Russia needs India. Russia as a younger brother to
China is not good for India and a weaker Russia engaged in a prolonged war with
Ukraine is good for US and then US can target China. So things are
really complex in this multipolar and multidimensional world and we just
hope that the crisis is over soon.
I wonder whether Russia has made
calculations to seize the entire Ukraine as this will prolong the crisis and
inflict significant damage on Russia. Throwing missiles or bombs from
aeroplanes can't make you own a territory...for that you have to enter the
territory and that's where the things can go wrong for Russia. Ukraine must
have been having large anti tank ammunations and night vision abilities
supplied from the west and it can damage russian air supplies to its forces.
Any large russian casualties at the front will result in massive outcry in
russia. The issue was lingering for a long time and it is the failure of
western powers in not being able to stop it...looks like world may be a far
unstable place in the near future if this war does not end soon and on
something ensuring long term peace.
From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
So looks like Russia has already
made its calculations and Ukraine joining Nato was not the main issue- it
appears it doesn't want democracy in Ukraine. It has chosen to sent army to its
areas of Influence in separatists regions of Ukraine which it is already
supporting for a long time...by this it has so far chosen limited invasion but
this may come at a huge cost. Ukraine not joining Nato was never a big issue
and Russia could easily get the negotiations as other Nato nations have no
intention to focus on Russia. But by declaring to undermine the democracy and
independence of Ukraine, it appears that Russia has ventured into a danger zone
and it may help US. Ukraine is not a soup and it will give a long bloody fight
to Russia in separatist regions...in fact the same is already going for long.
So if this issues is not resolved then russia needs to be ready for a long
period of Guerrilla war in unstable regions and it will have huge economic and
military costs for Russia. More economic sanctions will be imposed on
Russia...now US can force EU to follow the same as Russia has chosen a
different path away from Nato/ukraine issue. Nato will deploy more forces near
Ukraine/Baltic seas and I don't think having them so near will settle any of
Russian security fears.
So looks like Russia has tried to
get too much too soon and it may not yield best results. Western powers were
already ready for the deal and Russia could claim victory by getting the Nato
deal. But we poor people never know what these big people plan and why they
plan so. Only Russia knows what it is planning to achieve. Russia must have
counted China as a place to trade its Oil Gas/wheat...so it has chosen to embrace
China (smelly) and only time will tell what was costliest for them. But China
may not be a long term source for Oil/Gas as China is trying and investing big
in renewables to be self sufficient in energy needs and it may happen quite
sooner than anybody has anticipated. China is a tough negotiator and there is
not any easy lunch for Russian firms in China so far and they could not get
much market in China in spite of huge expectations. The trade is big now but
limited to Energy and agriculture. Russia used to treat China as a younger
brother but now China is behaving like the other. Russia has chosen to ignore
many of China's actions like theft of technology and china is forcing it upon
Russia in some ways like it forced Russia to avoid contracts in Vietnam/Taiwan.
Russia doesn't deploy Chinese tech in critical areas like defense and
communications. Russia does not allow Dalai lama in Russia so its Buddhist
people travel to India for that. So Russia reacts too much to small useless
statements from US/EU but ignore harsh China actions.But even here, Russia
couldn't ignore India even as China is not happy. China is hoping that Russia
may support it in Taiwan against US but Russia has not done the same so far as
it also fears a nuclear war with US just like US fear now. So the conflict has
its costs for Russia.
So things are quite strange-
Russia needs china for trade (Military support may not be the case)...China
also needs Russia as it is feeling the heat from US led alliances ( India is
already a part of one)...so Russia may feel it has power to make china check
its arrogance. China US tussle is good for Russia but now Russia occupied in
Ukraine may help US. Russia wants to show that it is not a declining power but
China wants to take on US position and impose itself on the globe. So US will
not care much for Russia and China is the target. Trade dependency on China is
not good for Russia ( It needs to be seen what sanctions are imposed upon
Russia) Assertive Russia is not good for Europe and they will try to
break away from Russian Gas (Only a matter of time). Russia now has some $630
billion (some $140-150 B in Gold) and it may feel that it can withstand the gas
export stoppage for a long time but he is not the only smart guy in this world.
Once EU finds a new gas supply (may be from Middle east/US) then the Russian
threat/bargain is gone forever and then this $600 billion is only a matter of
time.
World leaders don't always do the
smartest- in fact they do the dumbest most of the times. The world is a chaotic
place (politically and religiously) only because of these smart leaders. Like
China wants to take on US at the world stage and needs Russia in its side but
it has created a big enemy in India by creating border issue. China
underestimated India completely and now it will pay a heavy price...India is a
serious threat to Chinese because India has never been into any alliance so it
knows how to trade alone. Sometimes back, a young girl told me that she wanted
to be a writer and writing a book on how to live a great life (Motivational/self
help/spiritual). I asked her why she wanted to be a Guru as she herself needed
to see and live the real life first...why not to be a student first (and
always) and then just share your experiences...why this nonsense to be a
Guru...to lead people into nonsense ideology. World is tired of Gurus.
Once I was listening to one such
Guru who was explaining the Ahimsa (Non-violence) and hailed it as mark of
Indian way of life and ideology. But I told him that linear/blindfold Ahimsa is
not Indian way....Lord Krishna told Arjuna to fight for the Dharma while Arjuna
had chosen the path of so called Ahimsa. So Hinduism is not about Ahimsa but to
fight when it is required to establish Dharma ( reaction not an action). Ahimsa
is misrepresented- our infected bodies fight and kill bacteria so what is micro
and macro level Ahimsa? So it is good that India is getting more assertive and
China has made a big mistake in taking India lightly....in its calculations to
show India its place and all its calculations went into haywire. So Russia has
also made some calculations and chances are high that most of those will be
wrong. Right now, only Russia knows what are these calculations and we will
know after most of them are failed.
Indian markets should recover
after a brief period of variability...then the issues like Oil gas prices will
be back and market will choose its direction accordingly. So as i have shared
earlier- it is better for members with moderate financial profile to wait for
some more time. Let market stabilize when it is assured about the Russian
routine course of action.
From: Oscillations Date: Wed, 16 Feb, 2022, 02:14
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
One fellow just called me and
told me about the cyber attacks on Ukraine defence/banks. He further told that
Indian news channels are saying that this is the first sign of war sign. I told
him to stop watching Indian news channels...they are jokers. They are good for
fun-shun but no serious matter. I don't remember when last time I have watched
an Indian news channel ( I like WION ( Palki Sharma) News though...owned by
Zee). I feel Russia knows that Ukraine and West are listening to its demands so
it has also started easing the tone down...giving soft signals. Cyber attacks
may be another sign of showbaazi by Russia...of its capability. Russia has
shown its military might by amassing more than one lac troops.
Somehow I feel, Europe & US
understand that Russian worries about Nato coming near its borders are
genuine...they know from inside that what they are trying is a real potential
threat for Russia- Taking Nato near Russian borders. Nato can pose that they
are for the security of the alliance members but in their heart they do understand
that Russian unease is genuine. Why would Russia want its old and potential
adversaries planting missiles near its border? And that's why I think most of
the Nato members have distanced themselves...US also knows this. It is just
like Bangladesh allowing china to place missiles near India border...and India
will never allow this to Bangladesh.
So I still feel that chances of
Russia-Ukraine all out war are very less. We will see some tough negotiations
between Russia and Nato (US)...Ukraine was never the target but Nato. Russia
would ask for the lifetime guarantee from Nato and Nato in order to save their
face may opt for deferring the new membership for the next 20-30 years. This is
a very interesting game theory stuff- and if you understand game theory then we
will see a Zero sum game. Both Russia and Nato will gain something and lose
something.
Let's hope for the best.
From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
With European countries and the
US keeping a distance from the war, Russia understands that it will gain more
from the diplomatical solution rather than war. So the solution can take its
time...Ukraine is also giving mix signals...and US sounding alarms at war on
16th- If it doesn't happen tmrw then I think It won't happen at all. So let's
wait for one day.
From: Oscillations Date: Mon, 14 Feb, 2022, 22:17
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,
Investors live in a very tough
world- recently everybody agreed that rising US interest rates were not good
for the stock market and now US yields are down and markets are crashing
worldwide. And strangely it appears that investors don't know what they really
want. That's why stock markets are the toughest place to make money. Stock
market always has this view that there is always a world war coming. And Now
even when the US is saying that they won't send troops to Ukraine; it doesn't
believe them.
So just when we were trying to
solve the Fed interest rate puzzle, market has found another bomb. I don't
really have much interest in politics/geo-politics but here I feel that chances
of something bigger are less. There were risks for the same some time back (and
the market was calm at that time) but now the US has clearly expressed that it
has no plan for sending troops to Ukraine. Actually the US and Russia never
fight directly- both understand that the same will be catastrophic for the
entire human race, leave alone both. So they always fight indirectly through
others- Afghanistan, Vietnam, Arab world etc. No war happened when Russia
invaded Ukraine in 2014 (Russia is even stronger now). Perhaps, 2014 has forced
Ukraine to partner Nato while for Russia it might be just show of power. I
don't know what made Nato (US) to select Ukraine as a new member and what
Ukraine was thinking. Because now Ukraine has understood clearly that no Nato
country will send its troops to help them against Russia. Germany, France have
no interest at all. Europe is terrified of their choked gas supply from Russia
( it is surprising to see the impact of old world Oil/gas still having so much
bargain power. European countries like Germany were really fool to not to
address this issue while running after renewables). So Ukraine might be
thinking of its decision to go for Nato.
In fact, I feel that Nato
countries don't want to follow the US narrative anymore- they sent their armies
in Iran and Afghanistan (for US only) and now they have nothing to show
for that...they were literally humiliated. They looked like fools. So I don't
think we will see any Europe country fighting russia; they won't even vote for
Ukraine entry. Europe may not want an enemy in Russia. And perhaps Putin knows
this and that's why he has taken calculative risk to announce the arrival of
Russia. US I think is trying to hit Russia hard by instigating a war with
Ukraine. After seeing no mood of Nato members to fight, US has also decided to
stay away from this war but creating a noise and fear about Russia invasion.
And this may disrupt Russian calculations because Russia has nothing to gain
from Ukraine invasion as Ukraine is having much stronger army than 2014 and
this would hit Russia hard and holding back invasion in a hostile country is
not an option. So with Nato not supporting Ukraine with army, Russia has
already got what it wanted- to make Ukraine understand the reality and Russian
might in trade with Europe and domestic support for Putin with this power pack
show. But US would love to see both of them fighting. Russia can do some small
"Phuljhadi" but not an all out war with Ukraine.
China may be watching with
interest the US response to see what US can do for Taiwan. But Ukraine is no
Taiwan- US needs Taiwan who is its biggest trading partner and the core of the
US semiconductor industry. Ukraine is nothing in the world supply chain but
Taiwan is an economic force and a very key strategic asset for China if it can
capture it just like Russia is having big bargaining power with
Gas. Infact, US leaving Ukraine can be a bad news for China because US must
have left Ukraine as it want to focus on Indo-pacific (China) where it has
created a new Quad with India, Aus and Japan. Russia is a spent and declining
force and all it wants is just to show its might ( Russia is a poor fellow
now and Poor can't rule others) but China has much bigger ambitions- as it
wants to own territories and Sea. US don't really care for the poor Russia so
it is better to keep Russia where they are. So last week Quad meet was a sort
of warning to China- what US really wants.
So we will get to know soon what
Russia actually wants.
( Contact at oscillationss@yahoo.in)
