Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations (Part 2)

 Please Click here for earlier Post

Ukraine is still standing; not sure whether on one leg or two but the same is irrelevant in the face of great fighting spirit shown by Ukraine. This we can say is a fantastic fight back. When US and NATO declared that they won’t support Ukraine against Russia; Russia was smiling at that time at the pitifulness and helplessness of Ukraine and just like Russia everybody discounted them as a loser without any will left to fight. But these types of events are the reason that history books have something interesting to tell; these are the events where they don’t need historians to create (Read fabricate) a narrative to generate/justify/impose an alternate reality. It would be interesting to see how Russian history books would narrate (read downgrade) this tremendous fight back.

So as I have explained in the earlier post- Strong and prolonged resistance by Ukrainians have disrupted the Russian plans for regime change and now Russia has to reassess and recalculate the inflow matrix. Russia and Ukraine are going to have another round of talks today although just a week back Russia was not even picking their calls and it had no interest in talks. So it means Russia has lost because now it can only destroy Ukraine but can't win and that's why we are seeing them talking. The deal point at the talking table now is- Russia won't destroy Ukraine and in return it will take something from Ukraine and what Ukraine can give is a wild guess because I don't think Russia's sole purpose for war was not allowing Ukraine to join NATO. As I have shared earlier- I feel Russia doesn't want democracy near its borders and Putin wants to revive the USSR before he is gone from this world and he knows he is losing time. Putin wanted to make Russia a big economic power when he started in 1999, even wanted to Join NATO. But as of now we know Russia is still far from being a big economic power. Its exports are mainly natural resources (not high value added products). So there are more political aspects to the current quagmire than security aspects. Why did (what fear) small eastern European (earlier USSR members) countries join Nato? Whether NATO was really interested in Russian territory (NATO expansion card)? Whether Russia ever counted NATO as a big threat to its security and whether there is any doubt that NATO was on its death bead two months back so as to pose any real threat to Russia (now revived by Russia)? Anyone who feels there are real/genuine answers (Not just speculations) for these questions can understand that things are much more complex than a feeble NATO expansion Card being cited as a reason for this war. So as of now, I can't say that Russia was only worried about NATO expansion and we are not really sure what further destruction he can do (or he is already having plans). Putin has been successful in creating an image of an unpredictable fellow who can take irrational actions and that's why west is feeling a bit constrained in its reaction and planning to counter Putin. But I don't think that he is that irrational fellow because the same recklessness and irrationality is not on display in other spheres of his life and relations with other countries whether it is India or china; Putin has always taken rational decisions when it is with India or china so I think west has to plan their answers treating his as a rational fellow and then this bloody game is a great Game theory stuff- who will take what actions and strategies to counter the others. 

Russia is our greatest friend but that doesn't mean that friends can't make mistakes or dangerous miscalculations. However in geopolitics we don’t raise a finger towards the mistake of friends because most of those who want us to raise our finger also have bloody hands and nobody is interested in us and our security. Truth (Realty) is never linear and one dimensional. In a more logical world, Russia can't justify its invasion pointing out that the likes of USA have also done it many times. Russia said that Ukraine People are dying under Nazis and that they wanted to save them; but now they are the ones who are killing them and destroying their schools/hospitals/everything so that they can bring them to the table to have a deal to save their face. So Russia has done something which has weakened it (and India also) and I just hope that a more weakened Russia due to economic sanctions doesn't strengthen China too much. A weak Russia will find it tough to support India. So we can't really be certain in whose interest this war started- Ukraine, Russia or just Putin but one thing is looking certain that it will hit Indian interests and that's what matters the most for an Indian. Rest all becomes secondary in this weird and imperfect world. Pakistan who once was a fierce Russian enemy and the one responsible for their defeat in Afghanistan and then subsequent division of the USSR is now an ally of Russia. So Russia will ensure its interests before supporting India. The good thing is that India understands that It can't really count others in its fights; if anyone can join then good but India doesn't and can't really expect too much from others and that's why we are neutral and don't mess with the affairs of others.

So in a more logical world we can expect that as Russia really doesn't have anything to gain by winning or destroying Ukraine and costs and other economic, political and global implications are very harsh and hence we could expect both Russia and Ukraine to break a peace deal today or in near term...this is no brainer (in a logical world). But Putin has shown we can't really expect him to follow the logic- otherwise he doesn't have anything to justify the war/invasion. But still I really feel and hope that by now the ensuing Russian fall might have forced Putin to reassess, recalculate and recalibrate his much bigger and ambitious plans and we can expect some peace coming soon.

A big positive (feels good to talk about positives amid this catastrophe) I see after any such peace deal is that the World may witness a longer peace period. For a long time, I have been feeling that some big war may happen at any time in the world because there is too much negative energy buildup. We have countries like China who are ready to create nuisance all the time. We have too many conflicts everywhere. Everybody feels that they are strong enough to destroy the others...so the likes of China are doing nonsense everywhere in every possible way and world really was/is like a dangerous volcano waiting to erupt any time. But this war has shown the fragility of power and the strength of the weak. So people have seen the destruction they wanted to see for a long time and also understood the results that in today's world nobody is really that weak. The war has sort of released the pressurized energy and people should focus on peace. Hence I feel if both can find a peace deal then we may see the world becoming a peaceful place...in a sense that it has avoided a more serious, destructive and bigger war.

Although the likes of China may emerge stronger due to a weak Russia and they will try to create nuisance but I feel a silent Chinese decoupling from the global supply chain is already underway and then even China won’t be able to withstand economic sanctions if they try anything similar to Russian misadventure. But India will always be alone to fight China though the QUAD presents some hope because out of sheer foolishness China (most dictators are foolish or turned foolish over time) has created an enemy out of India and forced India to join hands with USA when China’s main adversary in realizing its global dreams (starting from Taiwan and South china sea) is USA not India. China doesn’t have any serious conflicts with India which can hit its economic or security considerations. India has even allowed China to get away with Tibetan occupancy. So India was always ready to achieve peace and that’s where China has miscalculated- to consider the peace willing fellow as weak. India is willing to flex its muscles now (Especially under Modi) and is not ready to accept any Gunda-gardi.

But we may see some dramatic realignments happening in the geopolitical arena in the next 2-3 years. Pakistan will destabilize and we may see it changing parties and the same may end at either loosing POK to India or closing a peace deal with India although before that India needs to oust China from POK and so we can see that India-China rivalry may take center stage and Pakistan will be just waiting in the corner and thus we have entered a period where Pakistan as an adversary is going out of the way. And that’s why this Russia Ukraine war is so important for India as this will also direct/impact Chinese strategy. China is predominately an export based economic power (with many challenges inside) and the people who earn money from others don’t fight with them. One reason the likes of USA who are big customers for many (They import big from everywhere) can wreak havoc by stopping/shifting their imports and as USA is the biggest trading partners for most of the world so it is very tough for anyone (like China) to ignore USA economic sanctions….USA is the biggest consumer in this world…a consumer with one very valuable commodity-Dollar. So India just needs to strengthen its economy and defence capabilities and creating strong allies and there may come a situation for India even to reassess its relations with Russia if the question is to counter China.

We will start investing again once some peace is emerging on the horizon...preferably next week

(oscillationss@yahoo.in)

Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations

 Dear All, I am regularly receiving messages to share my views on Ukraine-Russia war. First of all I am extremely sorry for not being able to post updates/studies on this blog for a long time. Actually I am working on something related to stock analysis/advisory work and hence not getting time for posting the studies as of now. But I will start the same shortly.

About the war- I am sharing my messages on this which I am regularly sharing with the newsletter club of this blog. Please note that I am not a war or geopolitics expert and my views are constrained/limited to my very limited knowledge of the subject. Still as the issue was related to our stock Investments so I have shared my views and we will take the investment calls accordingly. So please ignore my views if you find them inaccurate/illogical (or funny). Ever since the war has been started by Putin I have been feeling that although Russia looks perfect to win the War but some of its calculations- like easy and fast win  without much of Ukraine fight back, less harsh economic sanctions as it has some European countries to support it and their reliance on Russian oil/Gas may not happen as per their calculations and we may see some unexpected and unwanted surprises. So I still feel that Russian mis-calculations can lead this war into something very catastrophic and that’s why even though Russia is our friend I am not supporting this war (As Russia could have easily avoided the war and still emerged victorious achieving objectives).  A stronger China emerging from this war is not good for India. The need is to see this war from Indian, Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar.

From: Oscillations  Date: Sat, 26 Feb, 2022, 13:03
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All, 

Surprisingly Kyiv is still standing and Ukraine is giving a very tough fight. Their president is acting brave and he is in Kyiv and leading from the front and even refused US help to evacuate. Ukrainian people are also ready for right. This man was supposed to act like a comedian ( he was a comedian before) but now he is some sort of a global hero...and wars are fought on these emotions and motivations. Ukraine was supposed to surrender on the first day but they still are giving a bloody fight. This man made a mistake earlier for not strengthening borders earlier when Russians were at the door...but at that time he was sort of assured of NATO and US support.

Ukraine never supported India at UN/kashmir...sold arms to Pakistan. As Russia is our partner and a time tested friend in tough times so India should not Vote against Russia now and should keep a neutral view. But we just hope that their miscalculations shall not hit our interests. Like more than a Russian win India should be more concerned about stronger China emerging out of this war as a reliable Russian partner and china will try madly to replicate Russian style invasions in India and other countries and Russia will support them even if they are against India. So I believe India must have or still been trying to make Russia accept peace. So the need is to see this war from Indian (indirectly not any direct action though), Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar. One linear perspective is never absolute. India needs to see this fight from its own perspective first-  how it will affect India from Russian angle/actions and that's why this war is not good for India...if Russia wins it is Bad but if it loses then the worst...along with a chance of a world war any time, India getting hard pressed to choose Russia or others, India getting involved in senseless and dangerous cold war for a long time, pakistan and China becoming stronger especially when a weak Russia needs their support for its economy. 

The earlier Narrative that Russia is doing this to counter Nato efforts does not look credible at all. Russia was supposed to hit and weaken Nato but Nato was a dying alliance before this war and present russian actions has in fact reignited the alliance and EU is now following and buying the US narrative of Russian danger. I don't think that Putin was such a fool to not understand this...that nato will get alert and will strengthen themselves and their security and expansion. Still he chose the war and this is what worries me of his true intentions. I feel US and NATO announced earlier not to send armies in order to stop Russia from launching a war...their involvement means sure shot world war so in spite of public humiliation it looks like they have tried to avoid the global war. At that time, Russia was also having an opportunity to leave war plans on a high claiming a win which would have still served its objectives. But sadly for unknown reasons he chose the opposite.

Russia missed the opportunity on the first day when Ukraine was not ready for the assault. I think attacking from 3-4 positions/sides may be one reason. Russia is still an expected winner but it has a very bloody nose with large no. of casualties and if the number rises further then this will be sort of a humiliation for the very strong Russian army. This has given time to Ukraine to get their act and supplies together and get arms from other countries and now things will be more dangerous for Russia. The Russian supply chain is not doing good and it is an old weakness...so there are tanks and vehicles left without fuel...their soldiers are asking for food from local people. Most are just kids (18-20 years) pushed/forced into war. They are crying after they are captured.

The Ukrainian people are all ready for a fight. Quite the opposite of what Russia was thinking or declaring. Russia/Putin said that Nazis are ruling Ukraine and Ukraine people will cheer and embrace Russian army...to see themselves getting liberated. So much disillusion and histeria if Putin really believed in it or was made to believe!! But this hasn't happened at all and Ukraine's president is now a global Hero and if there was even a small contribution of this illusion in their motive behind the attack then Russia will be in some very difficult time.

We can assume that Russia will now become more deadly but the time lost has given Ukraine much time to regroup and also given fire to the protests in Russia which is very bad. Surprise attack element and quick capture of Kyiv and dislodging of the Govt was the key which didn't happen at all as per expectations. Russia is hitting civilian targets although Russia was supposed to liberate these people earlier who as per its understanding were living under hell. But there are nobody in local buildings anymore...they were supposed to be in there on the first day of the surprise attack and subsequent expected control of Ukraine...which never happened as per calculations. This is why war calculations are always wrong... because they are mostly based on underestimating the opponent and over-estimating themselves.

There are numerous examples in Vietnam, Afghanistan that the will/motivation to fight for freedom is more important (for a win) than a strong army and great high tech arms. Even if the invader succeeds in placing a puppet government the same never succeeds in controlling/running and it always needs support from the invader and is always ousted by local people whenever they get stronger. That's why the Russian puppet govt if they can install one stands no chance and perhaps Russia does or will realise this. Economic sanctions will hit Russia very hard in spite of whatever plans they are having to counter it. SWIFT ban if happen will be very bad for its economy. I hope that effectiveness of these sanctions may deter  China from invading Taiwan but they will intimidate India and chances are very less that any West/US country will come for our help. So a stronger China (Most probably in case of a Russian Win) may chose first to target India than Taiwan.

Russian real win was a win without much opposition and blood bath…that Ukrainian people/other countries don't have any reaction time and govt/regime is changed in Ukraine...but this is not what is exactly happening. Russia have to inflict a lot of damage to Ukraine infrastructure and general public. And so their win isn't going to be that effective...the destruction they have inflicted is not what a supporter does and Russia was posing like the one to their people. The initial plan was perfect to change the regime without people understanding much but with destruction the narrative and scenario has completely changed for Russia...and that's why chances of any misstep by Russia are higher now. All Russian calculations about getting less harsher sanctions or global outcry or its oil/gas bargain over EU was dependent upon quick capture of Ukraine but as it has not happened so all calculations are going wrong. Russia must have calculated EU countries like Germany/Italy/France supporting less harsher sanctions (like SWIFT ban) and caring for Oil/Gas supply from Russia but the delay and destruction will force these countries to change their stance and actions. I think these countries earlier supported Russia thinking that Russia will not wage a war after Ukraine agreeing to its demands for not joining Nato but now with so much destruction and fear of a global war these countries will see things differently and may make things very hard for Russia as far as Sanctions/Oil Gas import/Helping Ukraine are concerned.So Russia may be in some very tough times.

About NATO enlargement Issue- So far I have refrained from touching this topic as my knowledge in this respect is very limited. I don't like reading political documents/history at all. But still i feel if there was any such assurance then where is the document? Actually here are disagreements among scholars and is highly debatable but the then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had also confirmed that the Nato expansion topic was never raised. In fact, Russia also (including Putin) wanted to join Nato in 1990s and 2000s. But I feel in case such assurance was indeed given to Russia then they would have wanted to get the same in writing. However, I don’t think that there is any such written assurance available. Further, NATO is a formal alliance of countries/members with written rules so unless all members give their consent for any issue I don't think anyone from NATO can give such non-expansion assurance and there is no such written formal documents from NATO members also. So we can’t say what was promised and what not. But there is one written document between Russia and Nato- NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997 an agreement on mutual relations, cooperation and security and that NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. But there is no mention of any such Nato expansion stoppage (as far as I can see after a hurried glance at such a boring political document). NATO-Russia Council was also founded in 2002. Nato expanded in 2000s and if there was any such non-expansion assurance then the same would have been invoked by Russia at that time. I feel at that time, Russia was more concerned about leaving Russia out of the crucial decisions (I think like Serbia/Kosovo) but Russia was never worried that Nato was a threat to it. Also, if both take actions where they pose that they are a danger to each other then it is natural that both would take actions to enhance security (by alliances also) and so in this regard we can’t say that Nato alone is responsible for creating such threat.So common sense says that both Nato and Russia need to sit peacefully and try to find a final solution for the betterment of humanity. We are tired of this nonsense mess.

Russia does have a strong army but I think they may not be having relevant ground war experience and this is why they are not successful in capturing the territory...they are doing deadly air/missile attacks but not on the ground. They tried to took one airport near Kyiv (Hostomel) but met with heavy Ukraine attack and destruction. This may be their hurried effort or lack of planning I don't know but their ground work capabilities are not looking good.

Just like most Indians, I also like our Friend Russia and Putin...Russia still plays our songs (They are crazy for Mithun/Bappi da song "Jimmy Jimmy" from Disco dancer movie and you can still see them using/enjoying this song in their shows/remixes...I have so many russian versions with me and they are just fantastic). One version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P09ow9sY6Y

(Just see the passion, joy and energy). That's why I am very concerned about Russia doing anything costly.

Still hoping for an end to this nonsense war and peace prevailing and praying that this war does not turn into something catastrophic.

Regards

Gurpreet singh

From: Oscillations  Date: Fri, 25 Feb, 2022, 20:02
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

I got some msgs as to why I don't support this Russian invasion even though I am saying that Russia is our friend. Actually let me tell you one thing- Ukraine joining the Nato narrative is given by Russia for the attack but I have a feeling that Russia is using this as a pretext...it was going to invade anyhow. Putin always wanted to merge Ukraine into Russia as it never recognized its independence and one valid reason for Ukraine to tilt towards the west. Putin is looking to have much bigger ambitions and he has taken the gamble now thinking US is tired and weak after the Afghan meltdown...but my worry is that his madness can turn this war into world war any time and this is the big risk for this small victory...and the reason I don't support this move. So i feel that this Ukraine joining Nato narrative is just on the surface...it is for bacha party...Putin might be having much sinister plans or ambitions to make Russia a big power again. But this may cost Russia dearly and when I say this I am not talking about their defeat in Ukraine but over a much longer period. EU and US will see the re-ignition of Russia threat and whole world will be dragged into a nonsense cold war and a potential world war at any time. And India will face some very tough and complex scenarios- it won't be able to decide whether it needs strong Russia or weak Russia. And that's why time has come for India to upgrade its defence manufacturing and luckily they are trying to focus on that. 

Actually earlier Russia was a counter balance for India to US support to pakistan so Russia had a big role in our strategy. But time has changed now- US is no longer an adversary but a potential big partner and Pakistan is going to be dead on its own on one fine day. India's most decisive and existential fight now is with China against which Russia may not help much. Russia now is also building ties with Pakistan. As they say in geopolitics- there are no permanent friends but permanent interests. I still want a stronger and wise Russia as they have supported us during tough times and they understand the evil designs of China. So still hope that better sense prevails and war ends soon and the Nato Narrative is real.

So I only hope that this war ends in the manner everybody is expecting- Russia wins and controls Ukraine...but destiny has the reserved right for the unexpected.

From: Oscillations  Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

I hope you all are in fine shape as far as market mood is concerned. I hope nobody has done panic sale. Last day reaction from Indian market was way over-reaction as we were the biggest loser. Last day got many msgs from Indian brokers and many have advised selling after last day's fall...members/friends asked my opinion on the same and I told them that It (brokerages’ decision to sell) was a bit ill-timed and shared with them that we are not selling. Nobody was anticipating that Russia will do this step as Ukraine and Nato was ready for a talk as EU was not in favor of a conflict with Russia. So it was a sort of shock for the market but i think Putin gave a clear war signal last week when he said in anger that Ukraine was doing genocide. But I was not expecting this much fall/reaction from Indian market as long as there is any sign from US and Nato to engage directly as they have already shared that they won't fight directly. Many from US called me when US market was down but I told them to wait for Biden's message and if he was not engaging directly then there is nothing to worry ( As of now). 

Ukraine is doing a fine job and they have given a strong resistance...which nobody was expecting. Russia has suffered heavy damage...Ukraine MOD says that 800 russian army are killed which is a big number if it is true. Last night some reports were for 3200. Ukrainian are taking back the posts captured by Russian army and this is going to be the order for quite some time as long as Kyiv is standing. Sanctions are going to hit Russian very hard and If EU agrees on SWIFT removal then Russia will be in a very big trouble though the likes of Germany/Italy are opposing ( Still sanctions on Russian banks are a very big blow). Quite surprisingly, Russian people are on the street opposing russian invasion and as number of Russian causalities grow, the situation can get worst any time in Russia. In fact, last night I was really thinking that Russia may see another division in the next few years even though they want to annex Ukraine. 5-10 years are a big chunk of the life of an individual but for a country's journey 20 years are also a small number. Countries plan for 20 years strategies. So Ukraine needs to create a noise around Russian causalities as Russia will not disclose this number and economic sanctions will hit the morale of Russian population and this can create serious riot like situations. I am sure the likes of US/EU are contemplating this.

If US can force EU to leave Russian Oil/Gas then the US will be very happy. China looks like a winner but it is mainly about US response for any future Taiwan invasion and China has to take a big risk in assuming that US will not react. Putin I still feel acted more like a Gambler, to show Nato/US its power but he has already achieved the same without war. last day, Biden was smiling during address...people told me that he was looking confused but I did not feel like that. There are stories of valor of Ukrainian soldiers (like 13 soldiers in snake island) which will inspire Ukraine to fight tough, Russian soldiers are not looking in good shape, Ukraine president is still in Ukraine...so very tough fight. Today is the DAY...if Ukraine can survive today then Russia will be in BIG trouble. I expected Russia to be smart as we (India) need a strong Russia...I still feel that some of the Russian calculations may go for a big toss. A strong Russia may not help India against China but a weak Russia is good for China (although Russia gave India S-400 in spite of heavy Chinese opposition). So let's hope and Pray for Ukrainian people.

From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 21:11
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Everybody knows that Ukraine army is no match to Russia and that's what Russia has taken into its calculations. But they are much bigger now than 2014 and they will make Russia to pay a price. They can give them a bloody nose. Everybody knows that Ukraine can't win but the thing is the damage calculations may go wrong and by damage i mean all sorts of damage- economically. Russia might have calculated OIL/Gas as bargain but EU will act differently. They will bear the cost of high gas and give subsidy to its people (and still the cost will be lesser than a Russian threat)...Everybody feels that US will ignore Russia as it wants to target China but this is where the things can turn speculative as US may choose the other and US has every logic to choose the Russia along with China at a same time. Russia has done the same thing- it has tried to pose as a Madman and unpredictable ( this is what Putin portrays himself...that he can do anything and he is unpredictable). Russia can't think that It can achieve everything easily. Earlier Russia was hiding the death of Russian soldiers in separatists parts as death of separatists but now they have declared an armed conflict...and Russian people won't like the dead bodies of their soldiers coming in heap. The surprise is not about that Ukraine can win but Russia may have to pay much bigger price then it must have calculated. I am also hoping that as expected Ukraine will surrender in two days and as Putin has said that he has no intention to Occupy Ukraine so all ends in lowest possible damage. But my worry is that there may be some nasty surprise. And weak Russia (I hope they are not Mad Russia) is not good (at least for India)...a multi-polar world is needed not uni-polar (US) or Bio-polar (With nonsense China as the other).

Regards

From: Oscillations Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 at 20:09
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All,

So Russia has finally opted for the ultimate and war has begun. But I still feel that Russia may be in for some big shock...although Russia feels that they have done all the calculations but there is never a perfect plan. Perfection is the right, domain and capability of the Almighty. Who is right and who is wrong is always the most complex thing in this world- Still, as I have shared earlier I think Russia has the right to protect itself from west/Nato missiles placed in Ukraine borders against Russia just like US had during the Cuban missile crisis. Russia sees Ukraine as extremely crucial for their survival against western attacks. The mode of ensuring the same by Russia is debatable but the world is never a perfect place. Some Indian newspapers/scholars are asking India to take a firm stand...and preferably against Russia in this issue. I am surprised to see this, by not condemning the Russian attack India has already announced its stand. Then, India needs a Strong Russia and I don't think that Russia will ever discount or denounce India. India is a rising power...and a very credible and ethical partner/power so Russia needs India. Russia as a younger brother to China is not good for India and a weaker Russia engaged in a prolonged war with Ukraine is good for US and then US can target China. So things are really complex in this multipolar and multidimensional world and we just hope that the crisis is over soon. 

I wonder whether Russia has made calculations to seize the entire Ukraine as this will prolong the crisis and inflict significant damage on Russia. Throwing missiles or bombs from aeroplanes can't make you own a territory...for that you have to enter the territory and that's where the things can go wrong for Russia. Ukraine must have been having large anti tank ammunations and night vision abilities supplied from the west and it can damage russian air supplies to its forces. Any large russian casualties at the front will result in massive outcry in russia. The issue was lingering for a long time and it is the failure of western powers in not being able to stop it...looks like world may be a far unstable place in the near future if this war does not end soon and on something ensuring long term peace.

From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All, 

So looks like Russia has already made its calculations and Ukraine joining Nato was not the main issue- it appears it doesn't want democracy in Ukraine. It has chosen to sent army to its areas of Influence in separatists regions of Ukraine which it is already supporting for a long time...by this it has so far chosen limited invasion but this may come at a huge cost. Ukraine not joining Nato was never a big issue and Russia could easily get the negotiations as other Nato nations have no intention to focus on Russia. But by declaring to undermine the democracy and independence of Ukraine, it appears that Russia has ventured into a danger zone and it may help US. Ukraine is not a soup and it will give a long bloody fight to Russia in separatist regions...in fact the same is already going for long. So if this issues is not resolved then russia needs to be ready for a long period of Guerrilla war in unstable regions and it will have huge economic and military costs for Russia. More economic sanctions will be imposed on Russia...now US can force EU to follow the same as Russia has chosen a different path away from Nato/ukraine issue. Nato will deploy more forces near Ukraine/Baltic seas and I don't think having them so near will settle any of Russian security fears. 

So looks like Russia has tried to get too much too soon and it may not yield best results. Western powers were already ready for the deal and Russia could claim victory by getting the Nato deal. But we poor people never know what these big people plan and why they plan so. Only Russia knows what it is planning to achieve. Russia must have counted China as a place to trade its Oil Gas/wheat...so it has chosen to embrace China (smelly) and only time will tell what was costliest for them. But China may not be a long term source for Oil/Gas as China is trying and investing big in renewables to be self sufficient in energy needs and it may happen quite sooner than anybody has anticipated. China is a tough negotiator and there is not any easy lunch for Russian firms in China so far and they could not get much market in China in spite of huge expectations. The trade is big now but limited to Energy and agriculture. Russia used to treat China as a younger brother but now China is behaving like the other. Russia has chosen to ignore many of China's actions like theft of technology and china is forcing it upon Russia in some ways like it forced Russia to avoid contracts in Vietnam/Taiwan. Russia doesn't deploy Chinese tech in critical areas like defense and communications. Russia does not allow Dalai lama in Russia so its Buddhist people travel to India for that. So Russia reacts too much to small useless statements from US/EU but ignore harsh China actions.But even here, Russia couldn't ignore India even as China is not happy. China is hoping that Russia may support it in Taiwan against US but Russia has not done the same so far as it also fears a nuclear war with US just like US fear now. So the conflict has its costs for Russia. 

So things are quite strange- Russia needs china for trade (Military support may not be the case)...China also needs Russia as it is feeling the heat from US led alliances ( India is already a part of one)...so Russia may feel it has power to make china check its arrogance. China US tussle is good for Russia but now Russia occupied in Ukraine may help US. Russia wants to show that it is not a declining power but China wants to take on US position and impose itself on the globe. So US will not care much for Russia and China is the target. Trade dependency on China is not good for Russia ( It needs to be seen what sanctions are imposed upon Russia)   Assertive Russia is not good for Europe and they will try to break away from Russian Gas (Only a matter of time). Russia now has some $630 billion (some $140-150 B in Gold) and it may feel that it can withstand the gas export stoppage for a long time but he is not the only smart guy in this world. Once EU finds a new gas supply (may be from Middle east/US) then the Russian threat/bargain is gone forever and then this $600 billion is only a matter of time.

World leaders don't always do the smartest- in fact they do the dumbest most of the times. The world is a chaotic place (politically and religiously) only because of these smart leaders. Like China wants to take on US at the world stage and needs Russia in its side but it has created a big enemy in India by creating border issue. China underestimated India completely and now it will pay a heavy price...India is a serious threat to Chinese because India has never been into any alliance so it knows how to trade alone. Sometimes back, a young girl told me that she wanted to be a writer and writing a book on how to live a great life (Motivational/self help/spiritual). I asked her why she wanted to be a Guru as she herself needed to see and live the real life first...why not to be a student first (and always) and then just share your experiences...why this nonsense to be a Guru...to lead people into nonsense ideology. World is tired of Gurus.

Once I was listening to one such Guru who was explaining the Ahimsa (Non-violence) and hailed it as mark of Indian way of life and ideology. But I told him that linear/blindfold Ahimsa is not Indian way....Lord Krishna told Arjuna to fight for the Dharma while Arjuna had chosen the path of so called Ahimsa. So Hinduism is not about Ahimsa but to fight when it is required to establish Dharma ( reaction not an action). Ahimsa is misrepresented- our infected bodies fight and kill bacteria so what is micro and macro level Ahimsa? So it is good that India is getting more assertive and China has made a big mistake in taking India lightly....in its calculations to show India its place and all its calculations went into haywire. So Russia has also made some calculations and chances are high that most of those will be wrong. Right now, only Russia knows what are these calculations and we will know after most of them are failed.

Indian markets should recover after a brief period of variability...then the issues like Oil gas prices will be back and market will choose its direction accordingly. So as i have shared earlier- it is better for members with moderate financial profile to wait for some more time. Let market stabilize when it is assured about the Russian routine course of action.

From: Oscillations Date: Wed, 16 Feb, 2022, 02:14
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

Dear All, 

One fellow just called me and told me about the cyber attacks on Ukraine defence/banks. He further told that Indian news channels are saying that this is the first sign of war sign. I told him to stop watching Indian news channels...they are jokers. They are good for fun-shun but no serious matter. I don't remember when last time I have watched an Indian news channel ( I like WION ( Palki Sharma) News though...owned by Zee). I feel Russia knows that Ukraine and West are listening to its demands so it has also started easing the tone down...giving soft signals. Cyber attacks may be another sign of showbaazi by Russia...of its capability. Russia has shown its military might by amassing more than one lac troops.

Somehow I feel, Europe & US understand that Russian worries about Nato coming near its borders are genuine...they know from inside that what they are trying is a real potential threat for Russia- Taking Nato near Russian borders. Nato can pose that they are for the security of the alliance members but in their heart they do understand that Russian unease is genuine. Why would Russia want its old and potential adversaries planting missiles near its border? And that's why I think most of the Nato members have distanced themselves...US also knows this. It is just like Bangladesh allowing china to place missiles near India border...and India will never allow this to Bangladesh.

So I still feel that chances of Russia-Ukraine all out war are very less. We will see some tough negotiations between Russia and Nato (US)...Ukraine was never the target but Nato. Russia would ask for the lifetime guarantee from Nato and Nato in order to save their face may opt for deferring the new membership for the next 20-30 years. This is a very interesting game theory stuff- and if you understand game theory then we will see a Zero sum game. Both Russia and Nato will gain something and lose something.

Let's hope for the best.

From: Oscillations Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead

With European countries and the US keeping a distance from the war, Russia understands that it will gain more from the diplomatical solution rather than war. So the solution can take its time...Ukraine is also giving mix signals...and US sounding alarms at war on 16th- If it doesn't happen tmrw then I think It won't happen at all. So let's wait for one day.

From: Oscillations Date: Mon, 14 Feb, 2022, 22:17
Subject: Market fall and the way ahead
Dear All,

Investors live in a very tough world- recently everybody agreed that rising US interest rates were not good for the stock market and now US yields are down and markets are crashing worldwide. And strangely it appears that investors don't know what they really want. That's why stock markets are the toughest place to make money. Stock market always has this view that there is always a world war coming. And Now even when the US is saying that they won't send troops to Ukraine; it doesn't believe them. 

So just when we were trying to solve the Fed interest rate puzzle, market has found another bomb. I don't really have much interest in politics/geo-politics but here I feel that chances of something bigger are less. There were risks for the same some time back (and the market was calm at that time) but now the US has clearly expressed that it has no plan for sending troops to Ukraine. Actually the US and Russia never fight directly- both understand that the same will be catastrophic for the entire human race, leave alone both. So they always fight indirectly through others- Afghanistan, Vietnam, Arab world etc. No war happened when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 (Russia is even stronger now). Perhaps, 2014 has forced Ukraine to partner Nato while for Russia it might be just show of power. I don't know what made Nato (US) to select Ukraine as a new member and what Ukraine was thinking. Because now Ukraine has understood clearly that no Nato country will send its troops to help them against Russia. Germany, France have no interest at all. Europe is terrified of their choked gas supply from Russia ( it is surprising to see the impact of old world Oil/gas still having so much bargain power. European countries like Germany were really fool to not to address this issue while running after renewables). So Ukraine might be thinking of its decision to go for Nato.

In fact, I feel that Nato countries don't want to follow the US narrative anymore- they sent their armies in Iran and Afghanistan (for US only) and now they  have nothing to show for that...they were literally humiliated. They looked like fools. So I don't think we will see any Europe country fighting russia; they won't even vote for Ukraine entry. Europe may not want an enemy in Russia. And perhaps Putin knows this and that's why he has taken calculative risk to announce the arrival of Russia. US I think is trying to hit Russia hard by instigating a war with Ukraine. After seeing no mood of Nato members to fight, US has also decided to stay away from this war but creating a noise and fear about Russia invasion. And this may disrupt Russian calculations because Russia has nothing to gain from Ukraine invasion as Ukraine is having much stronger army than 2014 and this would hit Russia hard and holding back invasion in a hostile country is not an option. So with Nato not supporting Ukraine with army, Russia has already got what it wanted- to make Ukraine understand the reality and Russian might in trade with Europe and domestic support for Putin with this power pack show. But US would love to see both of them fighting. Russia can do some small "Phuljhadi" but not an all out war with Ukraine. 

China may be watching with interest the US response to see what US can do for Taiwan. But Ukraine is no Taiwan- US needs Taiwan who is its biggest trading partner and the core of the US semiconductor industry. Ukraine is nothing in the world supply chain but Taiwan is an economic force and a very key strategic asset for China if it can capture it just like Russia is having big bargaining power with Gas. Infact, US leaving Ukraine can be a bad news for China because US must have left Ukraine as it want to focus on Indo-pacific (China) where it has created a new Quad with India, Aus and Japan. Russia is a spent and declining force and all it wants is just to show its might ( Russia is a poor fellow now and Poor can't rule others) but China has much bigger ambitions- as it wants to own territories and Sea. US don't really care for the poor Russia so it is better to keep Russia where they are. So last week Quad meet was a sort of warning to China- what US really wants.

So we will get to know soon what Russia actually wants.

( Contact at oscillationss@yahoo.in)