Thursday, 18 August 2016

Radico Khaitan Ltd: On a High

I am writing this in a hurry but definitely not on a High for I don’t drink. But I don’t mind the intoxication of buying a great liquor stock like Radico Khaitan (I also have USL and United Breweries). I am advising it for last 2-3 years at our Blog. Links here and here. It is still hovering around the same price which I don’t mind at all as I have accumulated a good chunk of it during the period (My Avg is 90). As explained earlier also that I prefer investing in a particular stock over a period of time (2-3 years) absorbing all the positives and negatives as period of 2-3 years is sufficient for any company to have a start base. I don’t mind if the price of the stock remains stressed during this period like I wish for distressed prices for stocks like Narayana Healthcare and CARE Ltd as I want to invest big amount in these. I want to write a detailed post on Radico for past 2 months but only for time although time has come for it to not to remain cheap for too long.

I’ll post a detailed study on it within 2-3 days. I am writing this as I feel it can have a fast and unprecedented run from here on. It is a perfect stock based on domestic consumption based theme. It badly deserves a re-rating.

It is the cheapest liquor stock in India earning around 80 cr NP yearly but available at PE ratio of just 15 when players like USL are commanding a PE of 70-80. Radico is second largest liquor company in India after USL. Liquor business has strong entry barriers due to various state laws which are very difficult to command. Radico is focusing on premium liquor for past few years and its operating margins are rising in spite of dullness in the overall market. It has recently launched single malt whisky which is the third Indian made after Amrut and Paul John.

Radico has given great set of numbers this quarter again. For last 1-2 years as it is focusing big on premium products with high margins which is yielding results as its margins are increasing with every quarter. Earlier Indian liquor sector was a "Daaru Adda" as most of the liquor sold was of cheap quality. But as Indians are growing mature and rich they are learning the real art of drinking which is responsible drinking which is drink less but drink good premium quality products.

This June-16 quarter, Radico's operating profits are at 46 cr vs 36 cr YoY. Turnover is at 430 cr vs 417 cr...so a clear sign of rise in operating margins. I like this company, its management as they had the guts to venture into premium segment and they built some of the marquee Indian brands of last decade like 8 PM, After Dark, Morpheus Brandy, Contessa rum, Verve Vodka, Magic Moments vodka. Last day it was up at 9% to 101...but it is still a buy...still very cheap.

I am pasting below the verbatim of one of my earlier post on Radico Khaitan:

(Posted In Nov-2014-Radico Khaitan: Liquor…this is one sector which is going to witness huge activity going forward. First…we Indians don’t yet know what is really a whisky? What we drink in the name of whisky is nothing but neutral spirit extracted from molasses (By product of sugar) which is then blended with imported malt and grain scotch whiskies to get the flavor and colour of whisky. In india, they have given it a very funny name; Indian Made foreign Liquor (IMFL) which comprises Whisky, Beer, Vodka, Brandy, Rum etc. In foreign countries, Indian whisky gets the tag of rum as it is made from molasses and most of them find its taste terrible. Single malt or grain whiskies are like silk and these are enjoyed best neat without adding any soda/water/ice.

At present india has imposed huge import duties on imported scotch whiskies which inflated the cost of BIO (Bottled in Origin) whiskies by almost 3 to 4 times and BII (Bottled in india) by twice. This has protected the inefficient Indian liquor industry from high quality competitors. However there are some like Amrut distilleries from india whose single Malt whisky has been awarded as the world’s best twice which shocked the entire world. This prominently export oriented company has now started offering 1000 bottles in india also. Amrut is always in short supply globally. This shows with dedication and efforts Indian companies can give global brands a run for their money.

Scotch Whisky unions of Europe are eagerly waiting for india to sign the FTA agreement with European union which will force india to lower the high import duties on scotch whisky. Sooner or later india is going to sign the treaty. Whenever this will happen will prompt foreign companies to look for acquisitions in india to get hold of complex liquor distribution system of india where every state has its own set of rules with regard to wholesale and retail of liquor. Central and state level taxes are very high and these are stretched to the fullest by state governments to increase their revenues. Diageo has already done the same by acquiring USL. Secondly this will also make bulk imported whiskies cheaper for Indian companies for blending purpose which will raise their margins. It will also prompt them to focus on high quality grain based products in order to be competitive.

One more thing, in spite of global demand for whisky almost doubled in last 20 years or so, area under Barley (to make malt for scotch whisky) production has actually decreased during the period which is made up by rising production of barley per acre. Although barley produced in Scotland is best suited for scotch whisky but india can be a huge global supplier of Malt.


With this background, I feel it is worth risk taking to buy the Indian liquor stocks like Radico Khaitan/USL which are trading at multiyear lows. Radico CMP is around 88/-)


(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post)

Tuesday, 2 August 2016

Credit Analysis & Research ltd: Its Bond James Bond

CARE Ltd: There is one happy person and then there is another happy person; so, theoretically, if we combine these two happy fellows then the result should be more happiness and more happy persons. But still, married persons aren’t the happiest persons on the earth. Theoretically, equilibrium interest rate is the rate where demand for loanable funds equals the supply of loanable funds (say, Banks). But again in real life, interest rates aren’t decided in this way. As in the hunt for higher interest rates banks may end at providing loans to risky ventures like they can find out someone like Mallaya offering high rates with cheap whisky in other hand which can wipe out even the base amount; and they can refuse one genuine customer with credible business plan but offering low interest rates like one of my fellow Punjabi having the patent for making world’s first authentic “Somras”.  So banks don’t allocate their funds to customers as defined in the books. They took the help of specialized agencies which guide them about the creditworthiness of the prospective client.

Welcome to the world of credit Rating.

So credit Rating agencies like Crisil, ICRA and Care provide the services of evaluating the credit worthiness of the customer seeking loans/Bonds; it is all about the judging the strength of business model, cash flows, whether the business will be able to service the debt. Banks/Financial institutions take their interest rates decisions on the basis of credit worthiness of the client; interest equilibrium is basically for conceptual and academic framework.

India need huge investments in infrastructure to support or provide a base for high economic growth because without adequate infrastructure like cheap power we can’t manufacture cheap goods, without roads, warehouses and cold chains we continue to waste 30% of our agricultural produce. India need investments of around 6 lakh crores every year upto 2020 to achieve the minimum base of supportive infrastructure; this is 30 lakh crores for 5 years. A huge amount by any standards.

The question here is; how India is going to finance this. India tried banking route to finance big infrastructure projects which only resulted in huge piling of NPA’s in the books of banks. I have always felt Banks are not best suited for long tenure Infrastructure projects spanning 20-25 years where Banks are best suited for loans for periods of 10-15 years as this matches with their inflow-outflow of funds. But some of the big Indian corporate houses in most of the cases mismanaged the funds by inflating the cost of projects and then diverting the funds somewhere else; in other cases project was ultimately a bad business decision where corporates misjudged the future demand supply scenario miserably and Banks too were guilty of not doing their due diligence before allocating funds for these projects- poor state of real estate projects all over India is a perfect example.

Actually, Bonds are better suited for financing long term Infrastructure projects. Bonds are the best medium for getting the long term funds for infrastructure growth; they are traded on the exchanges so they have secondary liquidity market. Bonds ensure pricing on the basis of fundamentals and financials of the issuer. Just for putting things into perspective, had Mallaya Sahib had gone for Bond market instead of Debts from banks for Kingfisher Airlines, he would have scrapped most of his plans because market forces would have asked for higher rate of interest considering his weak balance sheet and riskiness of the business and he would have been happy selling cheap blends of Scotch whiskies.

But Indian Bond market is way underutilized and underdeveloped. Share of Bonds in corporate debt is just 4% in india wherein it is around 17% in China…it is high in most of the developing and developed countries like in Spain it is around 40%, South Korea 30%. So we are way down the line. However now is the time for the growth of Bond market in India as Banks are stressed and don’t have the funds and capital to finance much of the needs of infrastructure.

Last year, We bought NBFC's like Edelweiss, JM Financial, Piramal when everybody was banking on Banks; this time I think Corporate Bond sector can be the crucial factor. With the growth in corporate Bond market, need for Bond Rating will rise significantly and so I am investing in CARE Ltd continuously.

CARE Ltd is the cheapest rating agency trading at a PE of just 25 when others like CRISIL and ICRA are trading at 60 and 50. It has one subsidiary, Kalypto Risk Technologies, in the field of providing technical products (softwares) for enterprise risk management to the banking vertical. It is now eyeing global markets to fight the might of global rating giants Moody’s, S&P and Fitch having around 90% share of global rating business.

This is just an introductory post on the subject just to share the concept behind my latest investment. Bonds and Banking are my favorite subjects and I hope to provide much detailed study shortly. Reviews are welcome. I have entered at 1040 and it is just an entry...will continue to buy at every fall and at every significant event.

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post)








Monday, 1 August 2016

Revisit SKM Egg Products: Egg Powder has very long Shelf Life


I am again into Eggs. So many of our friends are raising queries about the future of SKM Egg as they are invested at higher levels of around 200. SKM Egg is a perfect example of over reaction of the market. When I bought it few years back around 10 my main growth catalyst was growth in Indian market which had near zero usage of its products. However it came back to life thanks to price rise in global markets but making the most of the fertile times it did a good job in wiping out the costly debt from its books and now it is ready to expand further particularly in Indian markets. When it was at 200, I was expecting it to fall as its growth was constrained by full capacity utilization levels. It is a commodity business and should not be getting high PE ratio which was when it was at 200.


Actually as I have explained earlier also that commodity businesses like Advanced Enzyme can deserve high PE ratio as entry barriers are strong and scope of scale is big. But in case of SKM, its strong entry barriers are only for Indian markets where demand is low and it doesn’t enjoy any such premium in global market where it is just another player. But it can survive in the global markets if it can keep its cost low. Scope of scale was also low due to full capacity utilization and low focus on Indian markets.

As its capacity utilization levels were full, so it was ready for a fall with stable results which it did and so fell. But its recent golden period from 2012 to 2015 was never going to last as price rise was stimulated by fall in supply from USA and Mexico due to flu attack and most of the countries banning import of USA poultry. USA egg prices rose to never seen prices due to shortages as millions of birds were killed. So countries earlier using USA imports were then looking for other avenues for supply and price of eggs skyrocketed in the global markets and so as the price of SKM Egg. But as I have shared a number of times earlier that I never invest in commodity stocks as most of the things are never in the control of these commodity producers. The more common the thing is; more price takers they are. Hence unless a commodity player has some compelling advantages like strong entry barrier, huge scale, low cost as compared to others etc. I never invest in them. The recent spike in the performance of SKM Egg wasn’t due to any of the above strong factors but due to global spike in prices on which it had no control. So this superlative performance wasn’t going to sustain anyways.

SKM Egg was a commodity player in the global market but a special player in Indian market where demand is low. But it has one thing in its favor and that is low cost which is negated by the recent fall in the egg prices. Actually Eggs are not suitable for transporting to long distances as they require more space, temperature control etc. which inflate their costs and dent the unit economy. So India is mainly exporting bulk table eggs to Middle East countries due to lesser distance and lesser quality control rules. But when we process the raw shell eggs to powder its weight reduces greatly and its shelf life increases considerably. Egg powder can easily last for over 18 months and if properly sealed it can have a shelf life of 5 to 10 years. All these things make Egg powder fitting for global trade at fraction of cost.

This Egg Powder can be used to make Omelet etc. just like shell eggs and they taste almost same. But Egg powder finds their major use in food industry for variety of purposes. Protein supplements are another area where their demand is big and growing continuously. Egg powder process also kills Bird flu and other virus due to high temperatures. Liquid Eggs also do the same work but with lesser efficiency as they require refrigeration and cold storage but still far better than table eggs. So I think Egg powder is something which can help in eradicating the nutrition problems in poor countries. Transporting table eggs to these countries is a waste of money and resources. These countries have enough demand to absorb all the excess supply; their only problem is price.

So things were going fine for SKM Egg unless USA found its feet again on the ground earlier this year. After the Bird Flu wean away, USA producers increased their production very fast and within months they were producing Eggs at the pre Flu scale. But demand wasn’t there as most of the Egg/Egg powder using food industry had either gone for plant based substitutes for Eggs or started using eggs at low scale in their products. This replaced demand hasn’t come back yet. Also the countries, which banned USA import haven’t still started it fully. This created a glut in USA market and this time prices fell to lowest levels. As USA was importing eggs last year, which it stopped later also resulted in the fall in global Egg prices. So currently there is over supply in the global markets and it will take some more time to fully absorb this. So we can see more pressure on SKM Egg for some more time.

But I am invested in it mainly for demand for its products in India. That will be the real golden time for it. As I have explained in earlier posts it has created world class facilities in India which is indeed a great feat. India is following the developed countries in the use of Cheese and Egg products so it is just about time that the demand for Egg powder will rise in India. We are still importing Egg based protein supplements; and still importing Whey protein based supplements. Whey protein is produced during cheese making process and a great value added products for dairy producers like our Parag milk which has big plans for entering into this segment in B2C market.

SKM Egg has wisely scaled down its expansion plans due to current global glut but India always has low price advantage and this will be back in near time. Average Egg prices in USA hovers around $ 2 for a dozen which are more than double the prices in India; even if we add costs related to superior quality India still is at half. So SKM Egg is surely going to acquire Ovobel (One of the biggest Egg Powder Producer in India) to expand its capacity and to have ready customers.

So those who have bought SKM Egg at the higher price should just wait for the tough time to pass. But SKM Egg is not a bad investment decision. Actually things can go tough in the stock markets as so many favorable and unfavorable variables always exist together and you can never know when unfavorable ones would take the command. Just like Life, we need to pass the tough time absorbing all the pain. This is the way in our Life when through hardships and pains we enrich and mature. But some of our decisions can turn out to be failures.

 We take our decisions from the narrow range of our consciousness but outcomes are decided by vast forces of life which we can’t measure at the time of taking decision. And we find Lord Krishna again relevant in stock market when he says to Arjuna that he can only do “Karma” (Act) not thinking about the “Phal” (Results). Actually Lord says taking decision is in my hands but results are an outcome of so many vast and various forces on which i have least control. But life and growth is always personal and individual; we grow when we venture into the unknown; this is the way to live life, meaning of life. We can’t follow the predefined and traveled path and hope to grow….this is just Re-acting not ACT. Our consciousness expands and solidify when we put ourselves into unknown. So if we want to accumulate great wealth in stock markets (not Normal Re-acting wealth) then we need to venture into stocks where maximum growth is into the future (current prices are just the beginning)...we can at the most care about the "Sarathi" ( Promoters just like Lord Krishna was the Sarathi of Arjuna who ventured into unknown on the persuasion of Lord and get the real essence of Life). Everything else after this is in the hands of Grand forces of life/Business. We shouldn't feel bad if somethings don't turn the way we like...we did our job perfectly...this is it.

So for my friends, who have entered into it at high prices of 200/150 , it is not a bad investment decision but a wrongly timed one. I remember my time, I entered in it at 20 and it was at 5-6 after 1-2 years…so I kept on adding in small. But I waited until Egg powder prices rebound in the markets and capacity utilization improved…then I made my major purchase at 7. So I made my bulk purchases around 1/3rd of my initial purchase price. At CMP of 70, it is just around 1/3rd of 200. so no need to worry just wait for the next phase of growth. If it delivers that then it is worthy of further investment even at 70-80...but not before that.

Its results will be out today; however I am not seeing any major setbacks this time in its results. Earlier around 2010 it was incurring heavy losses due to stressed global prices but quantum of loss was mainly attributed to the factors like low capacity utilization levels and high cost debt in the books. At present it is running at full capacity with almost nil debt….so only muscles and no fat this time. I think it is now better suited to withstand the tough market situations. Also Egg powder producers generally have long term relationships with their customers as customers want to ensure uninterrupted supply of raw material. So I am not seeing it drifting down to 50 where I’ll be happy to put more money into it.

We need to just remember that Egg Powder has long shelf life…it doesn’t get rotten that early.

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post)








Friday, 29 July 2016

Results Update: Redington India

Redington India: It has given great set of numbers in spite of the Volatility  prevailing everywhere. Although it is not an exception for Redinton as it is showing steady growth in all recent quarters when market conditions were tough. Apart from market volatility, there is another danger that cloud computing may prohibit large IT spending of organizations…but it is still growing by diversifying into new horizons. Distribution business is very tough as they have to establish their relevancy in the present era of cost cutting where some product channels see them as not adding any value to the product chain. But it is not….distribution is a very complex function, needing huge resources for keeping inventory, giving credit to resellers, market knowledge, providing after sales servicing and training etc. Just imagine how big resources Producers would need to block in these activities if not for distributors like Redington. 

Distributors earn their bits by achieving efficiency in the supply chain and economy of scale. Distributors like Ingram Micro and Redington, in order to fight another war of relevancy, have entered into the distribution of Cloud computing business. Earlier some suppliers were doubtful but then they see the value addition and now most of the cloud computing suppliers are having distributors. Redington is distributing the cloud products of Microsoft in india.

Anyhow, in this quarter, turnover of Redington has grown from 7570 cr to 9633 cr, operating margins are at 161 cr vs 145 cr while NP is at 93 cr vs 82 cr. But still it was down after the results. I don’t understand what market wants from it without giving it anything as it is trading at a PE ratio of just 8. Some analysts were worrying for the slight decline in the margins which I think is normal as Redington is venturing into new products and geographies. But it is not trading at a PE of 30-40 which can make us feel worried of these slight declines. Like Ingram Micro, the global Giant in the business ( although Chinese giant HNA bought it for 6 billion USD), is trading at a PE of 30 with market cap of $ 5 Billion. Ingram and Redington are the leaders in india with Ingram slight ahead of Redington. Ingram is earning around 1400 Cr NP on turnover of around 3 lac cr. While NP of Redington is around 500 cr.

Also the fact, Redington is working in the Indian market which is going to see huge growth in IT product usage whereas Ingram’s most of the markets are matured so Ingram is also looking for growth opportunities in Asia. Redington is the biggest in Middle east.

Redington’s third party logistic business “proconnect” is growing very fast, around 50-60% growth. It has another arm “Ensure” which is into multi brand warranty and after sales service business. This is the area where I feel it can achieve huge growth. India needs these branded after sales service centers as now we have crores of costly IT products and smartphones with huge data storage. we can't afford to throw them at a slight wear and tear. So we need to move beyond street repairing shops. HCL Infosys is also into this business big time and they are having around 300 centers in india with brand “Touch”. Warranty outsourcing will also be a big business as these smartphone and IT product manufacturers can’t afford to spend big in opening warranty centers in india and this crucial service will also be outsourced to players like Redington, HCL and TVS-E. TVS-E has already given great returns as it is at 105 from 45, for earlier study on TVS-E Click here (Touched 150 in between).


So I feel market isn’t recognizing the strength of business model of Redington. Redington will gain big with the approval of GST all over India as the same will reduce the logistics cost and Redington will need to invest lesser for inventory and warehousing leading to big savings in working capital etc. CMP is 103. Just stay here to witness the re-rating.


(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post)

Wednesday, 20 July 2016

Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd IPO: This Enzyme has Life!!

Enzymes are not alive. This is quite contrary to what most people believe…Living Enzymes never lived at all. My first contact with Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd was when I was trying to prove “Non-living Enzymes” to one of my aspiring doctor friend some years back. Like so many others, he was also doctoring his mind with this fascination that enzymes are living beings...fascination which was and still is the strongest pillar of Vegetarianism (with much emphasis on raw food for getting living enzymes). However, as explained in following paragraphs, most of plant Enzymes can't survive in the "Foreign environment" of human stomach and so they are not available to us. Raw food is not the panacea as there are some foods which are most beneficial when eaten after cooking like Spinach and Tomatoes as cooking enhance the absorption rate of some of the minerals and vitamins of these.


Enzymes: Nature, Working and Role in the growth of Humanity

Enzymes actually are the Nano machines of Mother Nature, created, to accomplish what our bodies are not capable of doing on their own. Enzymes are basically proteins, made of amino acids, wherein amino acids (in 100’s or 1000’s) string together in unique ways to form 3D structure. These are produced by the cells of all living beings (Humans, plants, bacteria, fungi) to accomplish basic tasks which are critical for their survival. Living beings have characteristics like they eat, excrete and reproduce…and Enzymes don’t do these. They are Organic biochemicals and just act as Catalysts to increase the rate of chemical reactions which can’t take place otherwise in our low body temperatures. At the most basic level, a cell is really a little bag full of chemical reactions that are made possible by enzymes!
If we really want to make sense of the business of Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd (AETL) than we have no other option but to understand this complex thing “Enzymes”. Only by this we can comprehend the strength of the AETL and premium that it should enjoy.

Our body does so many things to keep us conscious…it is working all the time without stop. But we have never thought about the actual working of our body. Like how it digests the food we eat. We are thinking that some living Bacteria and Chemicals do the game for us. But this is not the full picture…almost all the basic tasks of our bodies are done by Enzymes. Enzymes are making us breathe, think…some Enzymes are for our immune system. They are everywhere in our body. Like when we eat rice, the starch in the rice is the main sugar which our body needs for energy. But starch is a long chain (Hard) sugar, So the moment, you eat rice, body starts it work in the mouth itself. First of all, Enzyme Amylase (it is always in our saliva) breaks down the starch in rice in our mouth itself into smaller sugars. Then after reaching the intestine, other digestive Enzymes take the work load.

Every Enzyme has distinct shape (3D) and actually it is this shape that makes every Enzyme individual and capable to do only the assigned task. As they are made of proteins arranged in strings, so they have one “Active side” and this “Active Side” is responsible for breaking the molecules for releasing sugar etc. For example Enzyme Amylase breaks down the starch into simple sugars like Maltose. Although maltose is a small sugar, it is actually made of two smaller glucose sugars. Maltose is a bit too big for people to absorb, so your body must break it down into glucose in order to transport it to other parts of the body for use as fuel and for storing energy. So now our Body needs to break the bond between two glucose molecules and to do the same it has Enzyme Maltase. The working of Maltase is shown in the picture below:





 Maltose is made of two glucose molecules bonded together (1). The maltase enzyme is a protein that is perfectly shaped to accept a maltose molecule and break the bond (2). The two glucose molecules are released (3). A single maltase enzyme can break in excess of 1,000 maltose bonds per second, and will only accept maltose molecules.

So our body has Enzymes for every type of food; it has Protease for protein, Lipases for Fat, Lactase for lactose etc. Every Enzyme has distinct active side to perform only the specific task assigned to it. I have explained the mystery regarding Lactose from Milk in our body in the post related to Parag Milk Foods (link: Click here). In order to break the Lactose sugar in milk, Lactase Enzyme is required…Maltase Enzyme is not required here as Lactose has different molecules bonded together. But the cells of some human beings don’t produce Lactase; so if they consume milk they will be in big trouble. For these people, lactase fortified milk is produced.

Think of this like if I ask you to unfasten a nut of the wheel of your punctured car with your hands only. You can think of the energy required to do the same. But you can do the same with a tool effortlessly. Same is the thing with our bodily functions, without Enzymes the energy requirements will be tremendous. Just think if we need to boil the starch to break it…the boiling temperature inside you will kill you. So our body has to function within the boundaries of body like temperature, Acid or alkaline environment (ph). But chemical bonding of most of things we eat can’t be broken by this environment…hence we have Enzymes. They are Nano machines.

I was reading one scientist Dr. Richard Wolfenden, who has invested great deal in understanding the working of Enzymes in our body. He has found that some functions inside our bodies may take years to complete if not for Enzymes. His workings shows the catalytic power of phosphatase enzymes which help regulate the molecular cross-talk within human cells, the cell signalling pathways and biochemical switches involved in health and disease. If not for these phosphatase enzymes, these harmonic level reactions could have taken 1 trillion years, 100 times longer than the lifetime of the universe. Enzymes can make this reaction happen in 10 milliseconds. His research also has influenced rational drug design; findings from his laboratory helped spur development of ACE inhibitor drugs, now widely used to treat hypertension and stroke.


Critical factor for Humanity: Commercial and Industry Scale production of Enzymes 

We can see the power of Enzymes…without them nothing can survive here. Even a single cell Bacteria has 1000’s of Enzymes to carry out the reactions in bacteria. But humanity hasn’t been benefitted from the knowledge of working of these enzymes alone. They have gone far ahead with this knowledge and designed their own Enzyme powered Nano machines.

Human beings are using Enzymes for thousands of years….in the making of Cheese and wine…although earlier they weren’t aware that these products were due to the services of Enzymes. Like as we know, Lactase Enzyme is required for milk sugar but milk has protein (Casein) also which is dissolved in the water. So if a calf needs to digest that protein it needs to bind this otherwise it will flow out of stomach. So stomach of calves has Rennet which has some enzymes like Protease which helps in the digestion of milk in calves. This enzyme coagulates the milk into curd which can be digested by calves. As humans understood the working of these Enzymes, they extracted the rennet from the stomach of Calves and use the same for making Cheese. Production of Wine, Beer, Whisky etc is done by different types of yeast on different types of materials like Barley, rice, Hops, fruits etc. This is called fermentation which is used for the industry level production of Enzymes in the factories of Enzyme producers.

Overtime humans began to isolate the Enzymes from living cells which led to their commercial scale production and then wider use of Enzymes into various industries like Food, Detergents, textiles, leather , Agriculture, animal feeds etc. Detergents are treated with Enzymes Protease/Lipase/Amylase to break out the food (protein/carbs/fat) particles on our clothes. Just think about the need of hot water, chemicals required otherwise. But Enzymes in detergents do the job even in cold water.


Industrial Enzymes are Everywhere in Our Life

So Enzymes are taking the place of chemicals albeit much faster in western countries where awareness about the environmental damage is more than India. As Enzymes are organic chemicals, so they degrade much faster than synthetic chemicals. Also Enzymes, when used in food and health products, don’t have side effects like chemicals because Enzymes work only on their specific substrata (base material). If their substrata is not available then they will just stay neutral and don’t inflict any damage to us and environment and slowly they degrade when they are kept in unfriendly environment (remember their specific working temperature, acidity). They result in the huge savings of energy and resources. Like for the production of Ammonia from Nitrogen; if Iron (Chemical) is used as catalyst then it needs a temperature of 500°C and pressure of 300 N2. However the same work can be done by enzymes at 25°C and at a pressure of just 1N2. In textile, by using Enzymes, we can save around 90000 litre of water for every tonne of Knitwear produced.

In animal feed; stomach of animals can’t break down the hard feeds like corn, soybean…hence Enzymes are added into feed to get the full benefit of feeds and it results in early weight gain by animal with lesser feed. In the field of medical diagnostic, medicine, nutrition, the benefits of Enzymes are unmatched. Ethanol from corn and Sugar is produced by Enzymes. But these days, hunt is there for 2nd generation Ethanol which can break the hard Cellulose of wood etc. Breaking of starch from Cellulose is much difficult as it is very long chained and hard. Enzyme Cellulase (which was discovered in WW2 when it attacked the tents and uniform of soldiers) which can do the same for us but the same is not commercially viable at present. But the success can come in the near future. Our Praj Industries is also doing big research for the same.


Enzymes Production: Current and Future scenario

So today, we are producing Enzymes at large commercial scale in our Laboratories by using Micro-organisms, plants Fungi etc. But we are still only in the beginning with regard to technological prowess for producing Enzymes. As at present around 4000 Enzymes are known to us, but only 200 are used commercially and only 20 are produced at industrial scale.so just see the scale for the future. Novazymes (Denmark), Dupont (USA) and BASF (Germany) are the giants in Enzymes; producing around 75% of global production. BASF India is one of my favourite due to its unmatched prowess in chemical world. USA is the largest market in the world with around 15000 cr business, while China and Japan has markets of around 4000-5000 cr.

But in India, Enzymes industry is just 700-800 cr. So just see the scope of scale in India itself. India is now focusing on environment and Industries like Textiles are turning towards greener materials. I think, Nutrition and Diagnostic Enzymes are the biggest market for Enzymes in india and this is going to change in the near future when Indians will demand quality foods treated with Enzymes than harmful chemicals, Animal feed is another big area along with Textiles.


Advanced Enzymes Technologies Ltd: Growth Catalyst is yet to Happen

AETL is just doing a business of 200 cr (just 100 cr in India ) which is just a peanut as compared to the possible scale in India alone. It has strong R&D focus with 13 patents while 4 are under approval. It spends around 7% of its turnover for R&D….has manufacturing facilities in USA also. It derives around 65% of turnover from exports which points toward the big vacuum in India.

Enzymes industry has strong entry barrier as it requires sophisticated technology along with high capital costs, quality controls are very strict, reputation takes long to come, and customer loyalty is very strong. AETL is one of the few in the world to manufacture Enzymes from all sources like Bacteria, Plant, Fungi, Animal etc.

Cash flows are strong and company was very wise in bringing down the debt from 175 cr in 2012 to the levels of just 67 cr in 2016. From a turnover of 294 cr in 2016 its NP is 78 cr; indicating strong Operating and net profit margins. Return over Net Worth is high at 28%. So these factors like high margins, high RONW, strong entry barriers, huge scope of scale in the future should enable AETL to command high PE ratio of 35-40. At the upper price band of 896, it is trading at a PE ratio of 25 (EPS is 36) which is low. Global giant Novozymes is trading at a PE of 35, although it is much bigger. However another listed specialty chemicals company SH Kelker, which is into fragrance, is trading at a PE ratio of 45 which shows the valuation gap for AETL. Most of it, its capacity utilization levels are just 40-45% due to recent capacity additions; so future growth will come without any need for capital investments and growth will come surely especially from India.

Strong entry barriers and future scope of scale are the factors which I look for while valuing a stock (assigning PE ratio) as these are the factors which provide the certainty to the future earnings and PE ratio is always about future earnings. So some times, a stock can be expensive at a PE ratio of 6 while other may be cheap at PE ratio of 40…it’s all about future. There is not any fixed interpretation of fixation of PE ratio. In fact it is the most liquid thing in stock markets.

I am not saying that at the time of listing, it will gain to take its PE ratio to 40. As explained earlier posts also that listing gains are an outcome of so many variable forces which most of the times have no link with the underlying strength of the business like in the case of Quick Heal which is languishing at PE ratio of 25 although it should command at least 40.


But AETL is something which I am more than willing to buy at every fall (the fall which mayn’t come). I think it will get good response and we mayn’t get any allocation at all, so in that case getting the same at 30% higher can also be considered.Good thing about Enzymes is that they never change their behavior and always do the task assigned to them, they are perfect; and good thing about stock markets is that they are never perfect and this imperfection is the biggest CATALYST in finding the quantum stocks.

(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and applied for the IPO of the share discussed in this Post)

Monday, 23 May 2016

Some Promising Stocks: Meditating for the Unknown



Meditation is not a word for “Dhayana”. Meditation is a relationship of Subject and Object where one is practicing or contemplating something…but subject remains always there. But in Indian consciousness (again “Chetna” or “Minisha” are better) “Dhayana” is a state where subject dissolve into Unknown…subject just vanishes…it becomes one with whole or we can better say it realizes the illusion of separateness…fragmentation is a state of Mind while oneness is the reality…when one experience this…it is Dhayana…it is not a process but a state. And because there is no subject; so every Dhayani (Say Meditator) faces the problem of explaining his experience in our worldly language and when they try they appear out of Subject and Lunatic. It is just like trying to make a child understand the meaning of love…not understanding is not the issue but the child can relate his love for Chocolate with our love for our better half. The whole chaos we are seeing for ages is because children are trying to understand Love from their “State” and some says Love is Chocolate, for some it is Toys and for some it is ice cream.

Stock analysis is also just like Meditation…very deep, enjoyable and engaging but as subject remains (unmelt) so he can explain it. Business is even deeper meditation…contemplating the Unknown…dragging the future into present…business contemplates the oneness of worldly forces better than our religions and tries to gasp the future trend. But biggest risk factor is not the subject-matter but only the Subject….the businessman. I call it the Management Risk. I take management risk as the biggest threat to a business venture. External factors are always isolated and beyond control but business is never about controlling them but being in the harmony of these. Harmony is about the meditators. So there can be chances when external factors are out of favor but a true meditator will eventually resonate with these.

So capability of management is the biggest factor in the success or failure of a business. All the measurement variables of success like cash, market share, profitability etc. are just derivatives of the management. When I bought stocks like NIIT, jain irrigation in their tough times….it was just because of the management which is top class. Then, if external factors are affecting any business too frequently like in commodity business like Steel where too many external factors become alive time and again….like global over supply, low global demand…these can kill anyone without any of their fault…I call it Frequency Risk. So I generally avoid these types of companies.

So in today’s post, I am going to share some companies which are meditating quietly for a long time. So no wonder, they remain unnoticed. But the scale of success is enormous and if they succeed they will be giants. Another thing about these stocks is that almost all have already been shared with the readers of this blog who have subscribed to the email of this blog. Actually the reason for not sharing at this blog was because I was still to complete the final analysis and sometimes the lack of time. However I am feeling somewhat down as some of these stocks have already run up quite a bit. But the good thing is that most of email subscribers are having it so they might find this post just a copy of my emails. But today I am just posting basic introductions to these stocks due to lack of time and length of the post .

JM Financial and Edelweiss: Two of the best NBFC’s available at cheap rates. With great return over equity but still available at PE ratios of 10. JM Financial’s ROE is around 25%, Dividend yield is 3-4% but still running at a pe ratio of just 8! Both are having some Niche businesses like JM is the biggest indian in Investment Banking business which is a fee based business so margins are very high. Edelweiss is very strong in Equity broking and Insurance. Edelweiss is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of growth in equity broking business as more indians will come to the market due to high cost of real estate and sluggishness in Gold. Indians invest just 1% in equity, chinese at 15-20%...USA may be around 30% or so...so just see the scale.

But the surprise package will be their ARC (Assets reconstruction companies) business. Indian banks are estimated to have NPA’s of around 3 lac crore. Mr. Raghuram is focusing on cleaning the mess in the books of banks so banks are selling these NPA’s to ARC’s like never before. Both Edelweiss and JM are already the biggest players in this. Edelweiss bought around 20000 cr of NPA in recent times (it bought the NPA of Arshiya international while JM is curing Hotel Leela). I think that ARC’s are a good remedy to the businesses facing the systematic risks and can be saved by these ARC’s as they can provide these businesses with working capital and with their expertise they can enable them pass the difficult time. Like Arshiya expanded into FTWZ business too fast too soon but it was a novel business idea and can be saved. But there is no remedy for bad business decision and fraud and in those situations only remedy is to dispose of the assets and save as much as you can.

JM is at 45 and Edelweiss at 68. Both have already run up quite a bit especially Edelweiss from 50 to 70 but still long way to go.

Zydus wellness:  This is one stock where scale of operation is too big to ignore. It is into the wellness sector offering unique products like zero calorie sugar derivatives (Sugar Free Brand, with 93% market share), Nutralite brand providing low chelostrol substitute for butter, Everyuth brand in peel and scrub category with biggest market share. it is at a pe ratio of 33 and almost doubled...but this is nothing...peanut. Its main product Sugar free is having 90% market share and it is essential for diabetic patients. i am ignoring other health conscious persons using it. Its sugar free turnover is just 300 cr.

Now we do some calculations...india has 7 cr diabetics. Now take that in future only 3 cr will use sugar free. They will use 3-4 sugar drops per day, i am taking 4. Zydus charges around 60/- for 100 drops of sugar free and it has not raised the prices for last 3-4 years. Also its sugar free Natura and Herbivia are natural products and should command 50% more prices, i am ignoring this also. So taking 4 drops, the yearly possible turnover is 2600 cr...that too at old prices!!!. You can add health conscious person using the same and add price raises plus costly Natura and Herbivia and raise the usage to 6-8 drops.....it will become almost 5000 cr...add to it export growth...it will rise further. it is a concept stock and risk reward ratio is highly favorable. Sugar free now is generic name...but still people take it as chemical sugar when in fact some of its brands are natural sugars...so it just need to up the ante for Branding.

It is planning big for herbal zero calorie sugar Stevia...it has been finally approved by FSSAI around Nov-15...so now cola companies can use it and directions can be issued for its use.

Zydus has again started branding and awareness drive for its natural sugars like Natura which are not chemicals like earlier Sugar Free Gold. So once people understand this the demand will be huge. It has ignored Everyuth in the past although it is a great product, so due to no sales promotion people forget it. But now it is back on the TV and company is focusing on growing it again.

For Margarine (Butter substitute) Nutralite; it doesn’t taste that good like butter. So I think it would be great if Zydus focus more on enhancing the taste or it can add some percentage of butter to enhance the taste.

It was showing flat results for many quarters,  but finally in Mar-16 quarter it has shown good growth...turnover 109 cr vs 97 cr...operating  profit at 22 cr from 12 cr, NP at 25 cr vs 20 cr due to other income and taxation effect. I think it has raised the price of its products which was due for long. At CMP of around 770…it is a great buy.

Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital: I picked it up when it was around 70 few years back. It is one of the biggest Eye care chain in india with 60 hospitals with around 44 in India and 16 abroad. 

This hospital was promoted by late Dr. J agarwal who came to Mumbai around 1955 with just Rs. 250/- in his pocket with his wife and from a very humble beginning from small clinic with borrowed money for essential tools his vision and passion has created a eye care behemoth with annual turnover of around 100 cr and number of hospitals under its domain has increased to around 60 in all over india.

His son Dr amar agarwal MS, FRCS, FRCOphth, who is a stalwart in the field of Eye care and invented some new eye treatment techniques (like Performing pain-free, no-anesthesia cataract surgery) and written many books in the field of eye care is now leading the team towards a global growth path. They are a good management team doing almost 1000 eye operation in a year free of cost for poor people.

Its turnover is around 130 cr with negligible profits this year which may surprise many as eye care is a very profitable business. However this is due to rising competition where some eye care chains expanded too much in overcrowded southern market where Dr Agarwal has significant presence. The main culprit was Vasan Eye care who on its disastrous expansion spree expanded to almost 200 eye hospitals in around 3-4 years…but its growth (Weight) was fuelled by Debt (Fat) not equity (Muscles). So when it could no longer bear its weight, it just collapsed and its private equity partners like GIC and Sequoia took big losses. Players like Vasan brought down the prices of eye care. That’s why Dr agarwal sees its operating margins falling in last 1-2 years.

But it has big plans for investing around 600 cr for expansion. It is too strong in R&D and cutting edge technology in fact Vasan established its first hospital with the technological assistance from Dr Agarwal. Recent equity investments in Dr Agarwal is valuing it around 500 cr while its Current market value is just under 100 cr. CMP is 150. I am adding more at CMP.

Piramal Enterprises: This is my all-time favorite and invested in it at 500, then at 800 and 950. But I couldn’t post my study as it was expanding too fast and new businesses required deep study like its investment in pharma Information management company Decision Resource PLC in USA. It is into NBFC, Pharma, Information management. I just kept on adding it only on the basis of one man…and that is Mr. Ajay Piramal…the promoter of the group. I see him as one of the best value investor in india. It is now around 1350…a big rise but there is no doubt that it is just the beginning. It will become bigger and bigger. There are so many catalysts pending like demerger of its various businesses, Merger with Shriram group, Merger with IL&FS group etc. so it still can be picked at CMP and at every fall.

Forbes Gokak: Already posted a study about it when it was around 500 click here. But it is still unknown to many. It is the owner of Eureka forbes, the biggest water and home equipment company in india with unmatched R&D skills. It manufactures its product on its own and been the pioneer in bringing many new water treatment technologies. Turnover of Eureka Forbes alone is around 1800 cr with NP of 40-50 cr….while market valuation is just 1700 cr so it is at PE ratio of just 35-40 which is cheap…although we have not priced its other businesses like tools and payment solutions etc. I have invested quite early in it around 500, then at 700 and now at 1300. It is still a good buy at CMP of 1300/-.

Narayana Healthcare: Dr Devi Shetty is revolutionizing the healthcare industry with unimaginable low cost healthcare model. Earlier they were more like Good Company with the main objective of serving the poor. But you can’t grow with non-profit model. So they were having different models for rich and poor but with same high quality services. But they need more profit to grow bigger and provide cheaper services to all. Earlier actually i was a bit apprehensive whether Narayana would be able to show the kind of growth to justify the high valuation. And it just did the same in Dec-15 qtr result with its operating profit rising almost 5 times from 5 cr to 25 cr...also finance cost fell to 3 cr from 11 cr.

As it is following wholesale type of business model; so any incremental revenue will add significantly to the bottom. Also as it is now listed so it will also focus on more profits as compared to earlier past.

I am a big fan of Dr Devi shetty so i am a bit biased for it due to this. I also have a great respect for Dr. Venkatawamy (Dr V as he is called) of Arvind Eye care...these men are just awesome. I have read somewhere that doctors of Aravind Eye care perform around 2000 eye surgeries as compared to 400 global avg and 200 asian avg!!!
But players like NH are the next big opportunity for india to shine at global scale and bring in the huge foreign exchange even bigger than IT industry. NH is providing even better services than its global counterparts in USA at fraction of their costs. So huge number of people will visit india for cheaper and quality treatment in the near future. NH market value is just 6000 (No need to compare it with their revenue, just compare with the future scale) with turnover of around 1200 cr. This will grow much bigger from here. A great buy at 310 and at every fall.

BASF and Clariant Chemicals: Global Chemicals giants with great R&D and technologies. Some of the very few MNC’s who have invested big in india. They were incurring losses as it takes time for new capacities to churn profits as big depreciation in the beginning also squeeze the margins. Chinese cheap chemicals were also the factor but these are old horses. BASF and Clariant has already shown huge improvements in this Mar-16 quarter. BASF is at 950 and Clariant is at 690.


(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post)